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Author Topic: Georgia SUSA: Romney 50 Obama 42  (Read 1021 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: July 30, 2012, 08:49:32 pm »
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http://www.11alive.com/news/article/250188/12/Romney-prevails-in-11Alive-Presidential-Poll-
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2012, 08:58:50 pm »
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Unsurprising, but I think the margin on election day will be more of 53-46 Romney win. Georgia will be a swing state starting in the next decade. The Democrats are likely to pick it back up in 2016 or 2020.
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2012, 09:57:42 pm »
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Not yet up on SUSA's site, so I won't enter it yet since I don't know how stable the given link will be.  50-42 now translates to 54-45 once the other and undecided voters swing to the major parties and/or dropout.  Georgia is still in Lean R territory percentage-wise, but unless there is unexpected major national shift to Obama, it's safe R.  At best Obama might be able to narrow the gap to 5 or so.  He might still make a few ad buys in Augusta and Savannah if he thinks he can help Barrow keep his House seat, but that's about it.
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2012, 10:14:44 pm »
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If FEMA had sent New Orleans African-Americans to Atlanta instead of Houston/Dallas than Georgia would be polling pretty much as a swing state.
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2012, 10:55:04 pm »
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When you take it into context, it really doesn't look too bad for Obama.

I'm not delusional enough to believe that Obama will win the state, but you do see a slow and steady progression towards swing state status. In a 50/50 election, it looks like it would be about 54 Romney 45 Obama. Georgia will be interesting to watch in the next few cycles.
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2012, 11:06:53 pm »
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If there's a sleeper state this year, my guess is that it would be Georgia. Of course, I don't think there will be any sleeper states this time, but it's only July, so you never know.

In 2008, I said Indiana would be the sleeper state. I was right.
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« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2012, 11:19:48 pm »
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Not bad but Obama won't win Georgia. If he can make Romney spend in the state though he can consider it a moral win.
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« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2012, 11:41:09 pm »
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If FEMA had sent New Orleans African-Americans to Atlanta instead of Houston/Dallas than Georgia would be polling pretty much as a swing state.

Quite a few Katrina refugees were sent east.  We even had some get as far as South Carolina.
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2012, 12:07:48 am »
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Interesting that MO and GA seem to be tracking quite closely. In the end I think GA is a bit more Republican but the trend is evident.
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2012, 12:42:24 am »
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Interesting that MO and GA seem to be tracking quite closely. In the end I think GA is a bit more Republican but the trend is evident.

Missouri is trending R while Georgia is trending D and they're crossing paths right about now.
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2012, 08:11:11 am »
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When you take it into context, it really doesn't look too bad for Obama.

I'm not delusional enough to believe that Obama will win the state, but you do see a slow and steady progression towards swing state status. In a 50/50 election, it looks like it would be about 54 Romney 45 Obama. Georgia will be interesting to watch in the next few cycles.

I think you're getting ahead of yourself regarding Georgia. You say Georgia is trending towards a swing-state, though you only seem to be using ONE fairly-lopsided presidential election, and polling 4 months out from election day as evidence. So the evidence is minimal at best. After all Georgia practically was a Democrat/swing-state just 16 years ago when Clinton VERY narrowly lost it to Dole, and actually won it from Bush Sr. In 2000 and 2008 it was less swingy (post-Lewinsky), then in a huge Democratic turnout year, a Republican ticket that only garnered 173 electoral votes still managed to win it by over 5 points.

I think the jury is still out on the direction Georgia is headed. With four more likely painful jobs reports coming out between now and November, I have no problem seeing Romney carry Georgia by 10 points or more.

And also, if Romney wins Georgia by more than McCain did, wouldn't that technically be a trend toward R, and not D?

Also, where are the crosstabs for this thing?
« Last Edit: July 31, 2012, 08:18:27 am by MorningInAmerica »Logged

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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2012, 08:12:13 am »
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If the undecideds are whites, it's pretty obvious who they will end up voting for.
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2012, 08:30:07 am »
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If there's a sleeper state this year, my guess is that it would be Georgia. Of course, I don't think there will be any sleeper states this time, but it's only July, so you never know.

In 2008, I said Indiana would be the sleeper state. I was right.

Obama won Indiana because of the landslide...sleeper states would be states that are perceived as being safe for one party but vote for the other in a close race. You get things that normally vote for one party voting for the other in any landslide.
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2012, 09:11:53 am »
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The demographics in Georgia are changing rapidly to make it more diverse, just a decade or so after the electorate realigned in the "permanent R majority" form you see in states like SC and AL. That said, like TX, it's hard to say if or when the demographics will make it a swing state and what other changes would happen in the meantime,
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2012, 09:35:12 am »
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The demographics in Georgia are changing rapidly to make it more diverse, just a decade or so after the electorate realigned in the "permanent R majority" form you see in states like SC and AL. That said, like TX, it's hard to say if or when the demographics will make it a swing state and what other changes would happen in the meantime,

The thing is that - as Nate Silver points out - the Democrats have been losing more and more of the white vote. Obama only won 22% of Georgia whites in '08 and the Dems are going to have to vastly improve in order to be competitive. There aren't enough minorities yet to win solely on the margin in that demographic.
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2012, 10:35:55 am »
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The demographics in Georgia are changing rapidly to make it more diverse, just a decade or so after the electorate realigned in the "permanent R majority" form you see in states like SC and AL. That said, like TX, it's hard to say if or when the demographics will make it a swing state and what other changes would happen in the meantime,

The thing is that - as Nate Silver points out - the Democrats have been losing more and more of the white vote. Obama only won 22% of Georgia whites in '08 and the Dems are going to have to vastly improve in order to be competitive. There aren't enough minorities yet to win solely on the margin in that demographic.

I totally agree, but I think the decline in the white vote has run its course (as per the neighboring states) and the Dems can start rebuilding. There's hope for the future here where there isn't in other states. Not this year, though, not even with a 2008 macro environment which isn't happening.
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2012, 11:09:59 am »
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The loss of the white vote in the south has been troubling for Democrats, but I'm also in the line of thinking that this has run its course. 23% is really about as low as you can go in GA, considering all the liberal and moderate white voters who live in and around Atlanta. Atlanta is also beginning to attract a lot of scientific, creative and tech industries, which attracts more liberal voters. And much of the decline has come from older white voters who are being replaced.
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2012, 11:55:14 am »
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When you take it into context, it really doesn't look too bad for Obama.

I'm not delusional enough to believe that Obama will win the state, but you do see a slow and steady progression towards swing state status. In a 50/50 election, it looks like it would be about 54 Romney 45 Obama. Georgia will be interesting to watch in the next few cycles.
And also, if Romney wins Georgia by more than McCain did, wouldn't that technically be a trend toward R, and not D?

No, that would be a swing towards Romney. If the swing is greater than the national swing, it would be a trend towards Romney. What I was pointing out above is that Missouri seems to be trending towards the Republicans, being up 8 in a 2 point Obama race while Georgia is trending slightly towards the Democrats. Still, there is a long, long way to go before Georgia becomes a true swing state.

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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2012, 12:44:31 pm »
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In 2008, I said Indiana would be the sleeper state. I was right.

I'm very impressed.  Link?
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2012, 12:48:41 pm »
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In 2008, I said Indiana would be the sleeper state. I was right.

I'm very impressed.  Link?

The search feature for this site is broken, so I can't find it.
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Senator Griffin (LAB-NB)
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« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2012, 07:11:44 pm »
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In 2008, I said Indiana would be the sleeper state. I was right.

I'm very impressed.  Link?

The search feature for this site is broken, so I can't find it.

Related but unrelated:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3c299ac8-437b-4ecc-9f0e-2d2ba6a36e92

Indiana SUSA Poll: 8/16-8/18/2008
645 LV

McCain 50
Obama 44

Let's also look at SUSA's polling record in GA in 2008:

SurveyUSA   10/30 - 11/2   683 LV   3.8   52   45   McCain +7
SurveyUSA   10/11 - 10/12   547 LV   4.3   51   43   McCain +8
SurveyUSA   9/28 - 9/29   677 LV   3.8   52   44   McCain +8
SurveyUSA   9/14 - 9/16   684 LV   3.8   57   41   McCain +16
« Last Edit: July 31, 2012, 07:21:24 pm by IDS Legislator Griffin »Logged



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« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2012, 11:22:57 pm »
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Related but unrelated:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3c299ac8-437b-4ecc-9f0e-2d2ba6a36e92

Indiana SUSA Poll: 8/16-8/18/2008
645 LV

McCain 50
Obama 44

Let's also look at SUSA's polling record in GA in 2008:

SurveyUSA   10/30 - 11/2   683 LV   3.8   52   45   McCain +7
SurveyUSA   10/11 - 10/12   547 LV   4.3   51   43   McCain +8
SurveyUSA   9/28 - 9/29   677 LV   3.8   52   44   McCain +8
SurveyUSA   9/14 - 9/16   684 LV   3.8   57   41   McCain +16

Your point being?  The final poll was within the MoE for the actual result and the +16 poll was before McCain shot himself in the foot by ineffectually suspending his campaign for the financial crisis, while the other three were after.

If McCain hadn't botched his crisis response the election would have been closer, with Virginia being a tossup and Obama getting under 300 EV, tho still the White House.



To be fair, I think that's why McCain tried to do something dramatic.  If he had stuck to campaigning, he would have lost, just not as badly.  If his stunt had actually worked, he would have won.
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2012, 01:45:56 am »
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Your point being?  The final poll was within the MoE for the actual result and the +16 poll was before McCain shot himself in the foot by ineffectually suspending his campaign for the financial crisis, while the other three were after.

If McCain hadn't botched his crisis response the election would have been closer, with Virginia being a tossup and Obama getting under 300 EV, tho still the White House.



To be fair, I think that's why McCain tried to do something dramatic.  If he had stuck to campaigning, he would have lost, just not as badly.  If his stunt had actually worked, he would have won.

The first comparison is to show that Obama was down in Indiana's 2008 SUSA poll by a similar amount as Obama is in SUSA's 2012 GA poll today. Yes, the last three polls from SUSA in 2008 were within the MOE, but all had McCain over-performing his end result. This tends to make me think that it's possible the race is somewhat closer than what the current poll shows, but not by any substantial amount. And I'm pretty sure that McCain's campaign suspension didn't lead to that large of a voter shift in Georgia.
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« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2012, 08:30:59 am »
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In 2008, I said Indiana would be the sleeper state. I was right.

I'm very impressed.  Link?

The search feature for this site is broken, so I can't find it.

Yes, that's why I couldn't find it as well.  I'm not doubting you, just curious to see it.
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