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Question: Will Obama Get >60% in Massachusetts?
Yes   -14 (35%)
No   -26 (65%)
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Total Voters: 40

Author Topic: Will Obama Get >60% in Massachusetts?  (Read 1154 times)
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« on: August 05, 2012, 02:33:13 am »
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Ordinarily, I'd say yes, but being Romney's home state, I'm inclined to believe Obama will only get about 59% there.
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2012, 02:44:46 am »
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He could, but I think he won't.

He probably wins by like 59/39.
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2012, 03:19:34 am »
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not unless he wins in a landslide.
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2012, 03:20:27 am »
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Likely not, although it's certainly possible. My expectation would be around 58-40, with a little more room to go higher than lower.
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2012, 03:29:52 am »
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I expect something like 60-38, but we'll have another look at the polls closer to the election.
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2012, 03:39:08 am »
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No, probably 57 or 58-41.
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2012, 04:49:45 am »
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The ceiling for Democrats in the presidential races hovers around 61%. With reduced popularity and the former Governor on the opposite ticket, Obama will probably clock in a little less. 57-59 seems like a safe bet.
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2012, 10:17:16 am »
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I think he will: 60-39.
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2012, 10:33:29 am »
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No. He'll get 58-41.
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2012, 11:53:36 am »
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I think 58-41 or 59-40 is most likely, if it's still bad for Romney like with the non-release of the tax returns, I say like 60-39 or 61-38.
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2012, 03:00:21 pm »
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Massachusetts was weird in 2008.  It was the only non-southern non-ticket state in which McCain got more votes than Bush 04 did.   Also it was one of just 5 states where Obama under performed Kerry's %.   I was wondering if there might be reverse coattails and some Brown voters cross and support Romney.   Of course only time will tell.   It'll be really interesting to see if Romney can win Plymouth or Barnstable counties
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2012, 04:30:45 pm »
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Massachusetts was weird in 2008.  It was the only non-southern non-ticket state in which McCain got more votes than Bush 04 did.   Also it was one of just 5 states where Obama under performed Kerry's %.   I was wondering if there might be reverse coattails and some Brown voters cross and support Romney.   Of course only time will tell.   It'll be really interesting to see if Romney can win Plymouth or Barnstable counties

Kerry being from Mass. was the relevant factor.
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2012, 05:08:20 pm »
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Massachusetts was weird in 2008.  It was the only non-southern non-ticket state in which McCain got more votes than Bush 04 did.   Also it was one of just 5 states where Obama under performed Kerry's %.   I was wondering if there might be reverse coattails and some Brown voters cross and support Romney.   Of course only time will tell.   It'll be really interesting to see if Romney can win Plymouth or Barnstable counties

I doubt there are going to be reverse coattails from someone who's an even chance to win his own race.
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« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2012, 07:48:46 pm »
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Massachusetts was weird in 2008.  It was the only non-southern non-ticket state in which McCain got more votes than Bush 04 did.   Also it was one of just 5 states where Obama under performed Kerry's %.   I was wondering if there might be reverse coattails and some Brown voters cross and support Romney.   Of course only time will tell.   It'll be really interesting to see if Romney can win Plymouth or Barnstable counties

I doubt there are going to be reverse coattails from someone who's an even chance to win his own race.

Why?  Romney is certain to do worse than Brown, and unlike Brown he probably won't be doing any real campaigning there, just whatever leaks into Massachusetts from his campaign in New Hampshire.  If Romney is campaigning in Massachusetts it'll be because he thinks the Presidential race is decided (one way or the other) and he needs to campaign downticket to boost GOP prospects in the Congress.
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2012, 12:15:50 am »
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About 58%. Romney may take Plymouth.
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2012, 06:39:58 pm »
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No.  Romney has pockets of support in his home state that will hold Obama to mid to high 50s max.
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