Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 24, 2014, 04:18:35 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections (Moderators: Mr. Morden, Bacon King, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | |-+  Will Obama Get >60% in Massachusetts?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Will Obama Get >60% in Massachusetts?
Yes   -14 (35%)
No   -26 (65%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 40

Author Topic: Will Obama Get >60% in Massachusetts?  (Read 921 times)
SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9558
Latvia


View Profile
« on: August 05, 2012, 02:33:13 am »
Ignore

Ordinarily, I'd say yes, but being Romney's home state, I'm inclined to believe Obama will only get about 59% there.
Logged

Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15630
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2012, 02:44:46 am »
Ignore

He could, but I think he won't.

He probably wins by like 59/39.
Logged


IDS Emperor Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13254
Germany


Political Matrix
E: 6.06, S: -6.98

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2012, 03:19:34 am »
Ignore

not unless he wins in a landslide.
Logged

asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12652


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2012, 03:20:27 am »
Ignore

Likely not, although it's certainly possible. My expectation would be around 58-40, with a little more room to go higher than lower.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Ebowed
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16399
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -8.32, S: -9.30

View Profile WWW
« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2012, 03:29:52 am »
Ignore

I expect something like 60-38, but we'll have another look at the polls closer to the election.
Logged

A tidal wave of healthcare has swept across coal country. 
Napoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15429


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2012, 03:39:08 am »
Ignore

No, probably 57 or 58-41.
Logged

When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
Because I could count, my nose was big, and I kept my bank account fullish
I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
Nagas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1771
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -7.65

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2012, 04:49:45 am »
Ignore

The ceiling for Democrats in the presidential races hovers around 61%. With reduced popularity and the former Governor on the opposite ticket, Obama will probably clock in a little less. 57-59 seems like a safe bet.
Logged

Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6664
Spain


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2012, 10:17:16 am »
Ignore

I think he will: 60-39.
Logged

My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6330
United States


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2012, 10:33:29 am »
Ignore

No. He'll get 58-41.
Logged

Progressive
jro660
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1153


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2012, 11:53:36 am »
Ignore

I think 58-41 or 59-40 is most likely, if it's still bad for Romney like with the non-release of the tax returns, I say like 60-39 or 61-38.
Logged
timothyinMD
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 441


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2012, 03:00:21 pm »
Ignore

Massachusetts was weird in 2008.  It was the only non-southern non-ticket state in which McCain got more votes than Bush 04 did.   Also it was one of just 5 states where Obama under performed Kerry's %.   I was wondering if there might be reverse coattails and some Brown voters cross and support Romney.   Of course only time will tell.   It'll be really interesting to see if Romney can win Plymouth or Barnstable counties
Logged
Gravis Marketing
brittain33
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12951


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2012, 04:30:45 pm »
Ignore

Massachusetts was weird in 2008.  It was the only non-southern non-ticket state in which McCain got more votes than Bush 04 did.   Also it was one of just 5 states where Obama under performed Kerry's %.   I was wondering if there might be reverse coattails and some Brown voters cross and support Romney.   Of course only time will tell.   It'll be really interesting to see if Romney can win Plymouth or Barnstable counties

Kerry being from Mass. was the relevant factor.
Logged
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12652


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2012, 05:08:20 pm »
Ignore

Massachusetts was weird in 2008.  It was the only non-southern non-ticket state in which McCain got more votes than Bush 04 did.   Also it was one of just 5 states where Obama under performed Kerry's %.   I was wondering if there might be reverse coattails and some Brown voters cross and support Romney.   Of course only time will tell.   It'll be really interesting to see if Romney can win Plymouth or Barnstable counties

I doubt there are going to be reverse coattails from someone who's an even chance to win his own race.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28462
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2012, 07:48:46 pm »
Ignore

Massachusetts was weird in 2008.  It was the only non-southern non-ticket state in which McCain got more votes than Bush 04 did.   Also it was one of just 5 states where Obama under performed Kerry's %.   I was wondering if there might be reverse coattails and some Brown voters cross and support Romney.   Of course only time will tell.   It'll be really interesting to see if Romney can win Plymouth or Barnstable counties

I doubt there are going to be reverse coattails from someone who's an even chance to win his own race.

Why?  Romney is certain to do worse than Brown, and unlike Brown he probably won't be doing any real campaigning there, just whatever leaks into Massachusetts from his campaign in New Hampshire.  If Romney is campaigning in Massachusetts it'll be because he thinks the Presidential race is decided (one way or the other) and he needs to campaign downticket to boost GOP prospects in the Congress.
Logged

My ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17607
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -8.45, S: -4.26

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2012, 12:15:50 am »
Ignore

About 58%. Romney may take Plymouth.
Logged

Lincoln Republican
Winfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10609


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2012, 06:39:58 pm »
Ignore

No.  Romney has pockets of support in his home state that will hold Obama to mid to high 50s max.
Logged



Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines