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Author Topic: NY-01: Public Opinion Strategies (R): Altschuler beats Bishop  (Read 632 times)
Miles
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« on: July 31, 2012, 02:51:46 pm »
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POS has Bishop trailing by 4 in this rematch.

Bishop (D)- 43%
Altschuler (R)- 47%
Other- 4%
Unsure- 6%

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This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted in a single day July 29 and has a 3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.
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brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2012, 06:55:14 pm »
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This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted in a single day July 29 and has a 3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

Nice. Survey over several days and pick the one day with the best results for the R to release.
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« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2012, 09:07:52 am »
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Junk poll. Bishop by 5+ in November.
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« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2012, 09:35:28 am »
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This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted in a single day July 29 and has a 3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

Nice. Survey over several days and pick the one day with the best results for the R to release.

POS doesn't play that game. Had the survey had maybe 333 likely voters, maybe the campaign would be doing something suspicious here. But no campaign -- especially a challenger's House campaign -- is going to run a multi-day poll with 2,000 or 3,000 respondents.
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« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2012, 10:50:25 am »
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The poll shows Romney beating Obama 54-40.
Hmmm...
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« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2012, 11:04:13 am »
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This really does not surprise me. Does the Pub running against Steve Israel in NY-02 have any gravitas?  For some reason, the gurus don't have the NY-02 in play, which has puzzled me. Israel is a hyper partisan, chairman of the House Dem campaign committee, so it is not as if going out of the box he has cross over appeal.
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« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2012, 11:08:25 am »
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The presidential numbers aren't really believable, so that makes the rest of the poll not believable.
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Torie
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« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2012, 11:11:40 am »
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The presidential numbers aren't really believable, so that makes the rest of the poll not believable.

Maybe. NY-01 can be a somewhat volatile CD. It has been in the past. And I think it still has a substantial defense industry presence, an industry that is going to be sending 60 day layoff notices to its workers due to the defense budget sequester which is still the law at the moment. That isn't going to help Obama with this cohort of voters, and their relatives, friends and neighbors.
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« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2012, 12:05:32 pm »
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This really does not surprise me. Does the Pub running against Steve Israel in NY-02 have any gravitas?  For some reason, the gurus don't have the NY-02 in play, which has puzzled me. Israel is a hyper partisan, chairman of the House Dem campaign committee, so it is not as if going out of the box he has cross over appeal.

Isn't NY-02 the district Peter King is running for reelection in? I think Israel is runing in the third now. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G12/NY

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« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2012, 12:13:48 pm »
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This really does not surprise me. Does the Pub running against Steve Israel in NY-02 have any gravitas?  For some reason, the gurus don't have the NY-02 in play, which has puzzled me. Israel is a hyper partisan, chairman of the House Dem campaign committee, so it is not as if going out of the box he has cross over appeal.

Isn't NY-02 the district Peter King is running for reelection in? I think Israel is runing in the third now. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G12/NY



OK, my bad. NY-03 then. In any event, it is not being marked as in play.
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« Reply #10 on: August 04, 2012, 02:23:27 pm »
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Quote
This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted in a single day July 29 and has a 3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

Nice. Survey over several days and pick the one day with the best results for the R to release.

POS doesn't play that game. Had the survey had maybe 333 likely voters, maybe the campaign would be doing something suspicious here. But no campaign -- especially a challenger's House campaign -- is going to run a multi-day poll with 2,000 or 3,000 respondents.

According to the link, Altschuler has paid a lot of money for polling but this is the only one he's released.
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2012, 12:02:08 pm »
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This really does not surprise me. Does the Pub running against Steve Israel in NY-02 have any gravitas?  For some reason, the gurus don't have the NY-02 in play, which has puzzled me. Israel is a hyper partisan, chairman of the House Dem campaign committee, so it is not as if going out of the box he has cross over appeal.
Clout tends to translate into cross over appeal. Though it doesn't always.
These are not the hyperpolarized bits of NY Suburbia, after all.
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2012, 12:25:24 pm »
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According to the link, Altschuler has paid a lot of money for polling but this is the only one he's released.

$16,000 isn't what I'd consider a "lot of money" for polling. It certainly wouldn't buy you enough polling to seriously be able to pick and choose a favorable result to release. That's maybe two serious polls at best, especially when they usually come with hundreds of pages of crosstabs and associated analysis reports.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2012, 12:27:36 pm by Mr. Moderate »Logged

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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2012, 01:03:32 pm »
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Being originally from this district, I really, really don't believe that Bishop loses after 2010. 2010 was the only chance to dethrone him.

And there is absolutely no way that Romney beats Obama by double digits here. Impossible.
« Last Edit: August 07, 2012, 01:05:18 pm by xavier110 »Logged
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2012, 01:05:05 pm »
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According to the link, Altschuler has paid a lot of money for polling but this is the only one he's released.

$16,000 isn't what I'd consider a "lot of money" for polling.

What about $54,000? $16,000 was the subset for April only.

Stu Rothenberg turned his nose up at Altschuler's POS poll.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/58_16/Polls-or-Fundamentals-in-New-York-First-District-Race-216656-1.html
« Last Edit: August 07, 2012, 01:09:31 pm by brittain33 »Logged
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2012, 08:14:22 pm »
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According to the link, Altschuler has paid a lot of money for polling but this is the only one he's released.

$16,000 isn't what I'd consider a "lot of money" for polling.

What about $54,000? $16,000 was the subset for April only.

Stu Rothenberg turned his nose up at Altschuler's POS poll.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/58_16/Polls-or-Fundamentals-in-New-York-First-District-Race-216656-1.html

Well, they likely didn't run three in the same short time window (waste of money), and it's still statistically meaningful that Altschuler is up in any kind of sample.

There's reason not to trust the numbers. But you can't discount them entirely, because they're not born out of fraud.
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