NY-01: Public Opinion Strategies (R): Altschuler beats Bishop

[MilesC56]

POS has Bishop trailing by 4 in this rematch.

Bishop (D)- 43%
Altschuler (R)- 47%
Other- 4%
Unsure- 6%

This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted in a single day – July 29 – and has a 3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

[Gravis Marketing]

This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted in a single day – July 29 – and has a 3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

Nice. Survey over several days and pick the one day with the best results for the R to release.

[mondale84]

Junk poll. Bishop by 5+ in November.

[Former Moderate]

This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted in a single day – July 29 – and has a 3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

Nice. Survey over several days and pick the one day with the best results for the R to release.

POS doesn't play that game. Had the survey had maybe 333 likely voters, maybe the campaign would be doing something suspicious here. But no campaign -- especially a challenger's House campaign -- is going to run a multi-day poll with 2,000 or 3,000 respondents.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The poll shows Romney beating Obama 54-40.
Hmmm...

[Torie]

This really does not surprise me. Does the Pub running against Steve Israel in NY-02 have any gravitas?  For some reason, the gurus don't have the NY-02 in play, which has puzzled me. Israel is a hyper partisan, chairman of the House Dem campaign committee, so it is not as if going out of the box he has cross over appeal.

[Invisible Obama]

The presidential numbers aren't really believable, so that makes the rest of the poll not believable.

[Torie]

The presidential numbers aren't really believable, so that makes the rest of the poll not believable.

Maybe. NY-01 can be a somewhat volatile CD. It has been in the past. And I think it still has a substantial defense industry presence, an industry that is going to be sending 60 day layoff notices to its workers due to the defense budget sequester which is still the law at the moment. That isn't going to help Obama with this cohort of voters, and their relatives, friends and neighbors.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This really does not surprise me. Does the Pub running against Steve Israel in NY-02 have any gravitas?  For some reason, the gurus don't have the NY-02 in play, which has puzzled me. Israel is a hyper partisan, chairman of the House Dem campaign committee, so it is not as if going out of the box he has cross over appeal.

Isn't NY-02 the district Peter King is running for reelection in? I think Israel is runing in the third now. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G12/NY

[Torie]

This really does not surprise me. Does the Pub running against Steve Israel in NY-02 have any gravitas?  For some reason, the gurus don't have the NY-02 in play, which has puzzled me. Israel is a hyper partisan, chairman of the House Dem campaign committee, so it is not as if going out of the box he has cross over appeal.

Isn't NY-02 the district Peter King is running for reelection in? I think Israel is runing in the third now. http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G12/NY

OK, my bad. NY-03 then. In any event, it is not being marked as in play.

[Gravis Marketing]

This survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted in a single day – July 29 – and has a 3 percent margin of error with a 95 percent level of confidence.

Nice. Survey over several days and pick the one day with the best results for the R to release.

POS doesn't play that game. Had the survey had maybe 333 likely voters, maybe the campaign would be doing something suspicious here. But no campaign -- especially a challenger's House campaign -- is going to run a multi-day poll with 2,000 or 3,000 respondents.

According to the link, Altschuler has paid a lot of money for polling but this is the only one he's released.

[Vasall des Midas]

This really does not surprise me. Does the Pub running against Steve Israel in NY-02 have any gravitas?  For some reason, the gurus don't have the NY-02 in play, which has puzzled me. Israel is a hyper partisan, chairman of the House Dem campaign committee, so it is not as if going out of the box he has cross over appeal.

Clout tends to translate into cross over appeal. Though it doesn't always.
These are not the hyperpolarized bits of NY Suburbia, after all.

[Former Moderate]

According to the link, Altschuler has paid a lot of money for polling but this is the only one he's released.

$16,000 isn't what I'd consider a "lot of money" for polling. It certainly wouldn't buy you enough polling to seriously be able to pick and choose a favorable result to release. That's maybe two serious polls at best, especially when they usually come with hundreds of pages of crosstabs and associated analysis reports.

[xavier110]

Being originally from this district, I really, really don't believe that Bishop loses after 2010. 2010 was the only chance to dethrone him.

And there is absolutely no way that Romney beats Obama by double digits here. Impossible.

[Gravis Marketing]

According to the link, Altschuler has paid a lot of money for polling but this is the only one he's released.

$16,000 isn't what I'd consider a "lot of money" for polling.

What about $54,000? $16,000 was the subset for April only.

Stu Rothenberg turned his nose up at Altschuler's POS poll.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/58_16/Polls-or-Fundamentals-in-New-York-First-District-Race-216656-1.html

[Former Moderate]

According to the link, Altschuler has paid a lot of money for polling but this is the only one he's released.

$16,000 isn't what I'd consider a "lot of money" for polling.

What about $54,000? $16,000 was the subset for April only.

Stu Rothenberg turned his nose up at Altschuler's POS poll.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/58_16/Polls-or-Fundamentals-in-New-York-First-District-Race-216656-1.html

Well, they likely didn't run three in the same short time window (waste of money), and it's still statistically meaningful that Altschuler is up in any kind of sample.

There's reason not to trust the numbers. But you can't discount them entirely, because they're not born out of fraud.