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Author Topic: Brazilian Municipal Elections 2012  (Read 2897 times)
batmacumba
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« on: July 31, 2012, 03:41:33 pm »
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Well, I was away for a while, due a myriad of awful mishappens, but as things are getting better, so Brazilian politics start getting hotter. Campaining already started and It will be awfully noisy in the next three months.

For those who are not aware, local administrations here have heavily devolved powers and mayoralties, specially on capitals and big cities, are fiercily disputed - for their visibility, machines and, as ever at this country, pork.

Big news are the slow tearing of PT and PSB apart, due a lot of local and national reasons, after 23 years being together or playing the same game with different candidates; the investigation on mobster Carlinhos Cachoeira activities, which is hurting politicians on pratically the whole political spectrum; the even receding of right-wing parties to São Paulo, as the centre-left ones become more centrist and, thus, the reinforcement of the once inane left.

I'll try to post, daily, overview and analisys of the disputes, city by city, and relevance to national politics, starting tomorrow. Comments and info are wellcomed.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2012, 03:45:34 pm »
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How are Dilma and the PT faring in polls these times ? Last time I heard of it, she was still very popular.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
batmacumba
andrefeijao
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2012, 05:42:11 pm »
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How are Dilma and the PT faring in polls these times ? Last time I heard of it, she was still very popular.

She is very popular, even more than Lula was on his second year of administration, but more with middle class voters who probably voted Serra. She is appeasing to the only true opposition in the country, our ultra right press, doing some right wing policies and, at the same time, pretending to be harsh with those crooks around her.

Her developmentist policies are more in the way of the military regime than on the social policies Lula had implemented. I feel that the traditional base of progressive educated middle classers are a bit suspicious, but this is a personal evaluation, It doesn't appear on polls. Public Universities are on strike and the government refused initially to talk, menaced supending wages, and used some anti-union expressions that were kinda odd, coming from a party that started with unionized workers. Since then, many areas in the public administration went on strike, too, but the press handles It in the most fascist fashion, protecting harsh measures from the government and attacking the strikers, and, at the same time, using some of the claims against the government. Kinda surreal, I don't know how this is going to affect her. Probably, It will deepen her appeal to conservative middle classers and alienate progressives. If these ones will stay with her due a lack of alternatives or if they'll turn left is something that only time will tell.

The PT, on the other hand, is going downwards, as the press successfully presents them as backwards authoritarian, corrupted commies, even if the very truth is that they never were nearer to third way policies than now. Also the toucans are presented as competent administrators who saved the country, even if they had completely broke It in the turn of the millennium.

But local elections are usually very personalized and political machines play a strong role. So, national trends and struggles must be heavily tempered with local flavour. There are initial polls, which I'll post and try to explain and analyse.
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batmacumba
andrefeijao
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2012, 11:03:38 am »
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just lost my post. only tomorrow, now.
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Acting like I'm Morrissey w/o the wit
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2012, 02:33:20 pm »
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Mandelson would be proud.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2012, 05:49:31 pm »
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I'm supporting Patrus Ananias in BH. My whole family will vote for Lacerda...
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2012, 10:48:07 pm »
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Any chance of a PT primary challenge to Dilma in 2014?
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-7.61 Economic
-7.48 Social
batmacumba
andrefeijao
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2012, 01:00:19 pm »
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I'm supporting Patrus Ananias in BH. My whole family will vote for Lacerda...

Initially, I'll support him, too, but I'm waiting to see PT's urban policies (which were the same crap Lacerda's doing, during Pimentel's tenure, only less harsh). I was invited to colaborate with the 'political platform' (sorry, I don't know the proper term for that, in english, and I'm in some hurry to Google It), but I'll only make my mind thursday, after a meeting with a group of Architects and Engineers who are discussing the policies. If they maintain that crap, I'll be between nil or PSOL. Probably nil.
The fun part is that the ones supporting citizenship-oriented policies are the populists of PMDB. They have the only city counselor (vereador) who doesn't suck, but, in the other hand, He's son of one of the crookiest vereadores ever.
So, nothing enjoyable for someone who support citizen oriented policies.

Any chance of a PT primary challenge to Dilma in 2014?

Only from Lula himself. Very unprobable.

The name to be observed is Eduardo Campos, Pernambuco's PSB governor. Specially if He elects his nobody in Recife and Lamerda in BH.
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batmacumba
andrefeijao
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« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2012, 07:44:19 am »
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I've been a bad parent to this thread. I promise nurturing It today yet.

Not today...
Social service will end taking It from me.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2012, 03:39:16 pm by batmacumba »Logged

Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2012, 07:41:43 pm »
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One week to go, and things are not looking good for both major parties (PT and PSDB). The ongoing situation here in São Paulo, where I live, is quite emblematic.

PSDB's José Serra, in what probably is the last electoral run of his life, is on the fight of his life to make the runoff. PT's candidate, Fernando Haddad, has failed to gain the expected traction, despite huge efforts by Lula, but still has a shot to make the runoff. Both are facing a tough fight against Celso Russomano, a consumer's advocate and former congressman who's suddenly a sensation. There are some controversies surrounding him, but he's still the favorite, as his rejection ratings are much lower than Serra's and Haddad's.

Below are IBOPE's and Datafolha's polls.




IBOPE shows a bleaker scenario for Serra, of course, but in 2004, 2008 and 2010 they made some big mistakes in PT's favor, so I tend to believe Datafolha a little bit more. Still, it's within the margin of error, so it'll be a nervous election day as ballots are counted in totally different areas of the town.

The situation in São Paulo is similar to what's happening in many places around the country. In big cities like Porto Alegre, Recife and Fortaleza there's a good chance the winner will be someone who's not supported by the PT or by the PSDB. Who's profiting is Pernambuco's Governor Eduardo Campos, who's seen as a sleeper candidate for the Presidency in 2014. His party (PSB) is currently in the government coalition, but many party leaders believe they could break free and go alone in 2014 and 2018. Also, the PMDB will probably emerge even bigger this time out, what is rather scary.
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Governor Varavour
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2012, 09:03:05 pm »
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I was actually talking about this with someone the other day. Eduardo Campos actually came up! But holy [inks], I thought Serra had this locked up.

Serra do bem!
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2012, 04:28:50 am »
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Patrus continua crescendo e Haddad tb Smiley
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RodPresident
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2012, 06:06:12 am »
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Patrus continua crescendo e Haddad tb Smiley
Dilma went to her first rally at that campaign for Haddad. Although Russomanno supports her, she was pressed to go to campaign for Haddad.
My list of endorsements:
Feira de Santana (my hometown) - Zé Neto (PT), my personal friend
Salvador (city where I'm living) - Nelson Pelegrino (PT)
Sao Paulo - Celso Russomanno (PRB) (I'm PT supporter but I don't like Haddad).
Recife - Humberto Costa (PT)
Fortaleza - Elmano de Freitas (I took even a pic with mayor Luizianne Lins who endorses him)
Rio de Janeiro - Marcelo Freixo (PSOL)
Belem do Para - Edimilson Rodrigues (PSOL)
Manaus - Vanessa Grazziotin (PC do B - she'll defeat Artur Virgilio again and again).
Porto Alegre - Manuela D'ávilla (PC do B)
Curitiba - Ratinho Junior (PSC - his father is Brazilian Jerry Springer)
Sao Luis - Edvaldo Holanda Jr. (PTC - current mayor is PSDB and PT is supported by Sarney's gang).
Belo Horizonte - Patrus Ananias (PT).
I went to rally with Lula here in Salvador.
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Fidelix 28
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2012, 10:39:34 am »
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I was actually talking about this with someone the other day. Eduardo Campos actually came up! But holy [inks], I thought Serra had this locked up.

Serra do bem!

The problem with Serra is that, while he was a well rated Mayor, he left the office after just some 15 months to run for Governor of São Paulo. The fact that he won that election handly was a statement of his popularity in the city and in the state. The biggest problem for him are the dismal approval ratings of his Vice Mayor, mr. Gilberto Kassab (who was elected to a term of his own in 2008), and the fear that he'll leave office to run for something else in 2014 (what I find highly unlikely, as Geraldo Alckmin has a nice shot at being reelected governor, and Aécio Neves is basically a lock to be PSDB's nominee for the Presidency).

Still, I think it was a mistake to let Serra run again this year. He's a tired polititian now (and, as a supporter of him, it's hard for me to admit that). PSDB feared they couldn't create a new leader in time for october, but I do believe that with Alckmin, Serra, Aloysio Nunes and all the PSDB troops here in São Paulo, the PSDB would have created a contender for this election. They had strong local politicians lining up for a primary earlier this year, and I really liked the chances of Andrea Matarazzo and specially Bruno Covas (the grandson of Mario Covas and current State Secratary of Environment).
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2012, 05:06:54 pm »
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The latest IBOPE numbers for São Paulo have reportedly leaked, Russomano bled 7 points and now has 27%, Serra at 19% and Haddad at 18%. Gabriel Chalita reached 10% for the first time. The number of undecideds is still high. Many expected Russomano's votes from low income areas to go to Haddad, but it seems that people are just tired of the PT-PSDB polarization, thus the gain Chalita had. Numbers for the other state capitals will be released in a few minutes.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #15 on: October 03, 2012, 07:36:22 pm »
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Today's Datafolha - Russomano 25%, Serra 23%, Haddad 19%, Chalita 11%. Many expected Russomano would lose only votes from low income areas that would migrate to Haddad, but I believe he's also losing votes from middle class voters who were tired of the PSDB/PT duo - and those are going to Serra and Chalita. This will get interesting because in a potential Russomano-Serra runoff Haddad will definitely support Russomano (who'll probably get Lula support as well), and Chalita could end up supporting Serra (he's very close to Geraldo Alckmin and the PMDB has backed the PSDB in São Paulo over the last years.

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RodPresident
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2012, 03:50:17 pm »
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Chalita never would support Serra. He left PSDB because of him.
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Fidelix 28
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« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2012, 03:58:14 pm »
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Election Night in 2012
Curitiba: A upset is going to happen... Incumbent mayor Luciano Ducci is going to be out of run-off. Fruet (PDT) got to be in run-off with Ratinho Jr. (PSC).
Paes (PMDB) is going to win a epic landslide against Freixo, 69-26. Rodrigo Maia is going to be smashed.
Fernando Haddad (PT) and Jose Serra (PSDB) will get in runoff, defeating favourite Celso Russomanno (PRB)
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Fidelix 28
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« Reply #18 on: October 07, 2012, 04:08:29 pm »
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Who would win a Haddad-Serra runoff? Who would Russomanno support?
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RodPresident
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« Reply #19 on: October 07, 2012, 04:26:39 pm »
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Russomanno is most likely to support Haddad because PRB is supporter of Dilma.
Carlos Amastha (PP) is first mayor of capitol city to win, in Palmas.
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Fidelix 28
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« Reply #20 on: October 07, 2012, 04:28:14 pm »
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Who would win a Haddad-Serra runoff? Who would Russomanno support?

Serra's negative ratings are high today, so Haddad is a slight favorite. If Serra can bring back middle class voters and successfully attack Haddad on the "Mensalão scandal", he could well turn this around. São Paulo still tilts PSDB/center-right.
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #21 on: October 07, 2012, 04:31:58 pm »
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Election Night in 2012
Curitiba: A upset is going to happen... Incumbent mayor Luciano Ducci is going to be out of run-off. Fruet (PDT) got to be in run-off with Ratinho Jr. (PSC).
Paes (PMDB) is going to win a epic landslide against Freixo, 69-26. Rodrigo Maia is going to be smashed.
Fernando Haddad (PT) and Jose Serra (PSDB) will get in runoff, defeating favourite Celso Russomanno (PRB)

What happened in Curitiba is bizarre. Even the exit polls got it all wrong. A huge blow for PSB's Eduardo Campos national project. A huge blow for PSDB's Beto Richa prospects of a reelection in Paraná in 2014. A huge win for Dilma's Chief of Staff Gleisi Hoffman, who will be a candidate in Paraná in 2014.
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« Reply #22 on: October 07, 2012, 04:59:38 pm »
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Sorry for so many questions, but I'm curious and Brazilian politics is a little hard to understand for an outsider like me.

What caused Russomanno to collapse so quickly?

You say that Russomanno will probably endorse Haddad, and earlier that Chalita would endorse Haddad as well. Would most of their voters follow their endorsements or would they not care?

What's the overall national situation looking like?
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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #23 on: October 07, 2012, 05:19:54 pm »
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Sorry for so many questions, but I'm curious and Brazilian politics is a little hard to understand for an outsider like me.

What caused Russomanno to collapse so quickly?

You say that Russomanno will probably endorse Haddad, and earlier that Chalita would endorse Haddad as well. Would most of their voters follow their endorsements or would they not care?

What's the overall national situation looking like?

The opinion of someone from São Paulo, who's been following the dirt flying on the TV and on the web for the last few days.

1- Russomano was a popular consumer's advocate who had a program in TV. However, much about his earlier life was unknown. People finally discovered his breakthrough happened when he filmed his wife dying due to poor care in a hospital. They also found embarrassing videos of him in a Mardi Gras, grabbing breasts and butts of semi-naked women. Plus, Russomano was supported by the Universal Church, and in the end Catholics mobilized in favor of Serra and Chalita.

2- People in Brazil don't usually follow those endorsements. It MIGHT happen, but I wouldn't count on it, because both Serra and Haddad are very well funded and have strong supporters (Serra will have popular governor Alckmin, popular senator Aloysio Nunes, and FHC who's well seen in São Paulo, Haddad will have popular presidents Lula and Dilma).

3- A few things are striking me. I will come with my observations on the national scene soon.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #24 on: October 07, 2012, 05:38:48 pm »
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AND Marcio Lacerda wins, avoiding a run-off Sad

However, we may get SP, as Chalita has already supported Haddad and Russomano will probably do the same thing ^^
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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