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Paleobrazilian
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« Reply #25 on: October 07, 2012, 05:45:54 pm »
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Well, if Haddad wins, Chalita probably gets the Ministry of Education.

I think Serra gets some momentum now. This will be a horse race 'till the end.

Oh, and my council candidate, Andrea Matarazzo, had the second highest performance in the city. Well done!
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« Reply #26 on: October 07, 2012, 06:36:02 pm »
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In party of victory in Recife, Campos (PSB) is together with his former foe Jarbas Vasconcellos (PMDB).
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« Reply #27 on: October 08, 2012, 09:19:57 am »
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My recap of the election, as promised. Many things to be noticed.

1- The electoral system used in Brazil is broken. This election was probably the less enthusiastic since the redemocratization process. Irrelevant, disgustingly clientelistic, non-ideological parties have grown bigger, winning more town halls and council seats than ever. Town halls are now used for agreements between local, state-level and national-level leaders. In the end, even the PMDB, the traditional clientelistic party from Brazil lost seats to the PSD, the PTB, the PR and many other tiny parties. A barrier clause is desperately needed, but since the STF sank a barrier clause once ruling it unconstitutional, I'm not optimistic here.

2- What I said above fully applies to big cities - even though the PT and the PSDB are still a bit stronger on those cities, many of them have been won by smallish parties.

3- The PMDB is still the elephant in the room in Brazilian politics, ruling over 1000 cities around the country, including some big ones (and if you consider cities where they were on the winning coalition, and cities where they'll compose the base in the council, I'd estimate they'll be in government in over 50% of the cities around the country, not to mention their solid relations with many state governments and their connection with Dilma's government. Still, they're not happy. More on this later.

4- An expected performance for the PT, which is now a bit smaller in big cities (nothing to be scared about), but definitely bigger in small cities in many states. They are specially strong in Bahia right now, where 8 years of Jaques Wagner made them very strong. Those new mayors from small cities are largely non-ideological, but are still important for state elections and to negotiate benefits between potential allies.

5- The PSDB lost a few towns, but nothing to be worried about. They are rock solid as the strongest party in the South-eastern region, specially in São Paulo and Minas Gerais. They also profited from state governments to strengthen their position in Paraná, Goiás and Pará, and had an OK performance even in the North-eastern region (where they cruised in places like Maceió and Jaboatão dos Guararapes).

6- Big wins for the PSB, which is now solidly the party of the North-east. A loss in Curitiba ended up hurting the party, but that was largely overshadowed by an easy win in Belo Horizonte. They could also end up winning runoffs big cities from very different places, like Campinas and Cuiabá. More on them and their leader soon.

7- The PSD is a clear winner. They have a good shot at winning runoffs in cities like Florianópolis and Ribeirão Preto. But their clear strength comes from small towns. Remember, the party was recently created from a split in the DEM. And they quickly became much larger then the decadent DEM. In fact, the PSD consolidated much of the areas where the PFL/DEM was always strong (the North-east, some Center-west and North states and Santa Catarina in the South). With their totally clientelistic and non-ideological base, they could slowly become what the PFL used to be 15 years ago.

8- This was probably the final straw for the DEM, which is now reduced to virtual irrelevance (even if ACM Neto wins in Salvador). They might end up being absorbed by the PSDB to form a stronger opposition party. They could also merge with the PMDB and go back to their clientelistic days. Plus, the party might just keeps shrinking as oppositionists jump to the PSDB and clientelists jump to other parties.

9- Aecio Neves elected his man in Belo Horizonte, and kept the PSDB strong in his state. He was everywhere in the country over the last few days. His role as a contender for the Palácio do Planalto in 2014 is obvious. If he runs as expected, Minas Gerais is shaping up to be the decisive swing state.

10- Eduardo Campos is also much stronger, and he's obviously tired of being a supporting actor for the PT. He knows he'll be an underdog in 2014, but he also knows that 4 years after being in state government he will be weaker, not to mention the PT can build a contender in 2018 and leave Campos for death. I'm not sure if he'll run, but my guess is that he will. He could use the campaign to get the national recognition he lacks, and then come stronger in 2018. Ciro Gomes did that in 1998 and could have won in 2002 if not for some stupid blunders.

11- If Eduardo Campos runs for president, one wild rumour is that the PMDB could even support him if Dilma shows some weakness. The PMDB is unhappy because Dilma dislikes to negotiate cabinet positions to ally parties, what makes them angry. Some local and state-level PMDB members are also angry with their relationship with the federal government. While our powerful Vice-President Temer would like to keep their partnership with the PT, he'll have to make his party stronger in the coalition.

12- If PT decides their coalition is more important than their tight hold to the government, they could kick Temer out of the presidential ticket in 2014, inviting Eduardo Campos to it. From there, he'd be built as the coalition candidate for 2018. Don't expect that, though. PT wants to keep power for as long as they can. Plus, they need the PMDB to win the election and to govern the country. They cannot piss them off that much.

13- One rumour that has been gaining strength refers to a PSDB-PSB super Aecio Neves-Eduardo Campos or Eduardo-Campos-Aecio Neves ticket in 2014. Aecio Neves and Eduardo Campos are good friends. PSDB's strength in the South-East is equaled by PSB's strength in the North-east. That would be a VERY competitive ticket. Plus, both parties have similar platforms (PSB has moved to the center-left over the last few years, the came center-left PSDB inhabits). Also, FHC has already endorsed the idea, and he could lead PSDB leaders to this direction. The problem today is that being Vice-President in Brazil is largely irrelevant, but if they could come up with a strong deal for both, it could be very possible. Who'd head the ticket is the million dollar question (I'd expect it to be Aecio, but Eduardo Campos could look fresher than a PSDB candidate). Overall, I believe this ticket would come with a major propose of political reform, what would be a huge plus.

14- A final rumour for 2014. Ciro Gomes was pissed off in 2010, when the PSB decided to support Dilma's election campaign instead of promoting his presidential run. He's still very pissed, specially with his brother, Cid Gomes, who governs Ceará, and who said he'll fully support Dilma in 2014. His name recognition is still high around the country, and he's still seen as a third way politician by many. For this reason, another unsatisfied coalition member, the PDT, has invited him to join their ranks to be their 2014 candidate. The PDT used to be a strongly leftist, unionised party that lost strength and became more independent with senators like Cristovam Buarque and Pedro Taques. Ciro Gomes is undecided right now, as he's obviously waiting to see what Eduardo Campos will do.

15- There's a strong sense of unhappiness around. A political reform is strongly needed. Over 15% of the voters didn't turn out yesterday, a high number for a country where voting is mandatory. In São Paulo, over 10% of voters chose "none of the above" options, and 17% didn't turn out. In Rio, abstention reached 20%. One thing that bugs and saddens me is the growth of clientelism. The other is that there's simply no center-right or right wing party in Brazil today. Hopefully things will change, but I'm not optimistic.
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« Reply #28 on: October 08, 2012, 11:43:19 am »
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Thanks Paleobrazilian and everyone else providing info on this election. It's been really informative and interesting to read about.

One last question I have is why the clientelistic parties have so much support? Why do people vote for the PMDB or other parties that have no real ideology or platform? It doesn't really make sense to me.
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« Reply #29 on: October 08, 2012, 11:47:11 am »

One last question I have is why the clientelistic parties have so much support?

The clue is in the name.
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« Reply #30 on: October 08, 2012, 03:12:32 pm »

One last question I have is why the clientelistic parties have so much support?

The clue is in the name.

There's this, besides voting in Brazil is heavily based on personality and people rather than partisan labels which are entirely meaningless. Besides, these "parties" shower goodies on people and that helps to maintain their standing.

Random question: is the incumbent PSB mayor of Belo Horizonte allied with the local centre-right or something?
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« Reply #31 on: October 08, 2012, 04:27:16 pm »
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One last question I have is why the clientelistic parties have so much support?

The clue is in the name.

There's this, besides voting in Brazil is heavily based on personality and people rather than partisan labels which are entirely meaningless. Besides, these "parties" shower goodies on people and that helps to maintain their standing.

Random question: is the incumbent PSB mayor of Belo Horizonte allied with the local centre-right or something?
Lacerda is from a left-wing background. He was fired from Minas' phone company because his opposition to military regime and built a business empire. He became a supporter of Ciro Gomes and entered politics. He went to be Aecio's Secretary and got to be elected mayor. He ran to the right of Patrus Ananias.
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« Reply #32 on: October 08, 2012, 04:30:59 pm »
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One last question I have is why the clientelistic parties have so much support?

The clue is in the name.

There's this, besides voting in Brazil is heavily based on personality and people rather than partisan labels which are entirely meaningless. Besides, these "parties" shower goodies on people and that helps to maintain their standing.

Random question: is the incumbent PSB mayor of Belo Horizonte allied with the local centre-right or something?

More than this. What happens today in Brazil is the result of our republican history. It's a long process that must be understood to allow people understand our politics.

When Brazil became a republic, in 1889, this was a rural country where distances were huge and people were far away from the power. Brazil was a republic loosely inspired on the American federalist system, which gave local administrations a lot of power. This is how it all started.

In those days, local governments were ruled by local land owners, powerful producers of coffee, cattle, cocoa, cotton, etc. And that happened anywhere in the country, from the North to the South, from the East to the West. Those were our "colonels". They used all sorts of of arguments to be voted, including, of course, physical intimidation.

This model started to change when Getulio Vargas became president in 1930. First, Vargas brought the populist model that made Brazilian politics extremely personality-based. Second, Vargas started to bring industries to this country, slowly making this a more urban country with a more diverse economy. This was a slow process that started with Vargas and had influence in this country 'till the 80s, at least.

Thus, Brazil slowly became a 2-worlds country - one based on big cities, with liberal voters, and more modern politicians. Meanwhile, in small towns and rural areas, those "colonels" became paternalistic leaders with an authoritarian streak.

This polarization was easily seen during the military regime. We had the military-supported ARENA, which was composed mostly by local leaders from rural areas (like the Sarneys in Maranhão, the Collors in Alagoas, the Bornhausens in Santa Catarina, just to name a few). Meanwhile, we had slightly more progressive, democracy minded politicians at the allowed opposition, composed by the MDB.

When the imposed bipartisanship fell in the early 80's, the MDB split into a lot of smaller parties. The leftist members of the MDB helped created the PT, the PDT and the PCdoB, parties that were strongly connected to trade unions with a solid leftist ideology. The PTB also emerged from the PTB, originally as the inheritors of Vargas' legacy, then as a basically centrist party. What remained there formed the centrist PMDB, which was composed by those from small cities and rural areas from the MDB.

Meanwhile, the ARENA became the PDS, which then split into the large PFL and into the smaller parties PL and PRP. The PL and the PRP were supposed to be right wing parties, in opposition to the PFL, which quickly became a clientelist party that started to work with the PMDB. In the end, though, all of them became clientelists.

The last major shake-up on the post-dictatorship scenario happened in 1988, when the more liberal, social democrat factions of the PMDB left the party to form the PSDB. They were specially sickened with the PMDB support to José Sarney, and tried to bring a "new way" for Brazilian politics.

So, basically, when we reached the 90's, you had 2 faces of the same coin in the PMDB and the PFL. Also, many of the parties created by then, like the PTB, the PPB, and the PL moved to the center, just focusing on their local leaders. Those parties became home of the local leaders, and, with a huge base in both congressional houses, they started to control national politics. That's how the clientelist scenario in Brazil consolidated, and even with the political rearrangements we saw with FHC and Lula, the big picture has not changed.

Answering your random question: Marcio Lacerda broke up with the PT and is now a man of Aecio Neves.
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« Reply #33 on: October 08, 2012, 04:56:47 pm »
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Once again, thanks. That was very informative.
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« Reply #34 on: October 08, 2012, 04:58:49 pm »
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Marcio Lacerda used the support of righties to win, but he's a centre-left mayor. He's not bad at all, but I think Patrus was better for BH.

In SP, I'm almost sure Haddad will win. Incredible. Dilma and Haddad began their campaigns with 5% of the vote in polls and both of them won/will win because Lula campaigned for them.  Lula 2018!!
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« Reply #35 on: October 12, 2012, 01:36:35 pm »
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Well, sorry for starting then abandoning the thread. Not having too much time to the forum, lately.
Some thoughts...

In party of victory in Recife, Campos (PSB) is together with his former foe Jarbas Vasconcellos (PMDB).

Vasconcellos' problems were never with him, exactly... And the new generation of PE oligarchs loves him, once He's not doing his grandpa's policies.


13- One rumour that has been gaining strength refers to a PSDB-PSB super Aecio Neves-Eduardo Campos or Eduardo-Campos-Aecio Neves ticket in 2014. Aecio Neves and Eduardo Campos are good friends. PSDB's strength in the South-East is equaled by PSB's strength in the North-east. That would be a VERY competitive ticket. Plus, both parties have similar platforms (PSB has moved to the center-left over the last few years, the came center-left PSDB inhabits). 


The PSDB doesn't inhabit the center-left at all. Their self stiling of a social-democratic party, initially, was much more a matter of sinistrisme than anything, and It was gone soon. Pimenta da Veiga/Azeredo's administration (the first the party has), was somewhat focused on the city elites and real estate speculator's interests (despite, thankfully, not to the same extant Lacerda's is). Covas was calling for policies focused on financial markets since his first gubernatorial attempt. During FHC first tenure, what remained of social-democrats fled or got irrelevant, except for small pockets in the NE. Placing them on the center-left is only a talking point of internet-based ultra-reactionary pundits.

As for Campos-Neves alliance, this is their original project. It was devised by Arraes in order to counterbalance SP elite's control over national affairs. But, in the form It is shaping now, It's becoming more of a way for that group to retain power. It will depend more on the evolution of Dilma's compromise with banks than on the two heirs individual wishes.

Campos, anyway, is clearly the most wise politician around. He managed his candidates to appeal to the new middle-class, suspicious of the PSDB's neoliberal policies while pissed off with PT's scandals.

Marcio Lacerda used the support of righties to win, but he's a centre-left mayor. He's not bad at all, but I think Patrus was better for BH.

Well, Julio, if you consider:

- dismantling successful social programs;
- campaining against tips to street children;
- attacking buskers and beggars, closing facilities for homeless;
- militarising the municipal guard;
- putting sharp stones under viaducts in order to avoid homeless seeking a place to rest;
- curbing the budget for culture, dismantling traditional cultural events;
- expelling shantytown dwellers from areas they've been occupying for two decades, using brutal police force, to allow its use by the real state market, once those areas are regaining value;
- altering the city's zoning in order to facilitate real estate developing, but with the same existant infrastructure;
- facilitating the demolition of built cultural heritage;
- spending heavily in viaducts, avenues widening and other car-focused solutions;
- ignoring environment studies in order to facilitate construction;
- allowing verticalization on protected areas and previously house-only neighbourhoods;
- selling streets in consolidated neighbourhoods to entrepreneurs in order to facilitate megaprojects (which in turn will have negative impacts on the neighbourhood);
- solemnly ignoring the city's masterplan, once It has directions that doesn't satisfy the real estate market;
- curbing public servants wages, even when the city finances are doing good;
- ignoring education and public health infrastructure;
- governing essentially for the elite, with policies focused exclusively on giving profits to that elite;

as being center-left, then I guess you're right.
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« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2012, 03:55:03 pm »
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Thanks for the information, Batcumba. I thought he was centre-left only because my grandpa didn't vote for him, as he feels Lacerda is a closeted Petista... But, reading what you said about him, he seems to be anything but a leftie. But, ironically, each year I go to BH, I find the city safer and more modern.
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« Reply #37 on: October 12, 2012, 06:51:29 pm »
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The PSDB doesn't inhabit the center-left at all. Their self stiling of a social-democratic party, initially, was much more a matter of sinistrisme than anything, and It was gone soon. Pimenta da Veiga/Azeredo's administration (the first the party has), was somewhat focused on the city elites and real estate speculator's interests (despite, thankfully, not to the same extant Lacerda's is). Covas was calling for policies focused on financial markets since his first gubernatorial attempt. During FHC first tenure, what remained of social-democrats fled or got irrelevant, except for small pockets in the NE. Placing them on the center-left is only a talking point of internet-based ultra-reactionary pundits.

As for Campos-Neves alliance, this is their original project. It was devised by Arraes in order to counterbalance SP elite's control over national affairs. But, in the form It is shaping now, It's becoming more of a way for that group to retain power. It will depend more on the evolution of Dilma's compromise with banks than on the two heirs individual wishes.

Campos, anyway, is clearly the most wise politician around. He managed his candidates to appeal to the new middle-class, suspicious of the PSDB's neoliberal policies while pissed off with PT's scandals.

I'll have to politely disagree on this point.

While FHC definitely moved away from the left as the years went by, he and his party never moved beyond what most people would call the "center" around the world. Many scholars in Brazil try to rate him as a right-winger, but that's only because he adopted some liberal economic policies, specially privatizations and the fiscal responsibility law, exactly the same thing many acclaimed left-wing administrations around the world did (like Chile's Concertación). FHC took many left-wing policies when president, a few of them panned by Lula in 2002 and later strongly embraced by him, like the Bolsa Escola and the Vale Gás, which Lula transformed into the Bolsa Família (but not before trying to replace them with the unsuccessful Fome Zero program). Plus, FHC was key on the establishment of human rights in Brazil, taking full responsibility for the crimes committed by the military regime, and recognizing the jurisdiction of the Interamerican Court of Human Rights. He also adopted the "concessão de uso especial" to legalize the situation of those who invaded public areas. He managed to break down the military ministries, finally put the military under civilian control. He criminalized torture. He and his health minister, who lefties also despise (José Serra, for those who don't know), took many left-wing policies, introducing generic drugs, financing a huge prevention-and-treatment AIDS program and passing anti-tobacco laws. Basically, of course he was not a left-winger like Lula, but he was no right-winger as well, IMHO.

Another reason why many try to label the PSDB as a right-wing party, IMO, is the fact that until the mid-to-late 90s the PT, the PCdoB and the PDT were still strongly influenced by their radicals, creating a sharp contrast to FHC's policies. This contrast was pretty much gone by 2002, as José Dirceu kicked most radicals out of the PT to get the necessary support to elect Lula in 2002.

Plus, it's important to remember that in 2010 the PSDB ran to the left of the PT on many important platform aspects, like Social Security (Serra wanted to abolish the "fator previdenciário", something that would inject a huge cost to the INSS) and Central Bank independence (Serra wanted to have tight oversight of Central Bank, what made some say he'd be the de facto President of the Central Bank).

You mentioned Covas. Covas definitely went much farther than anyone in his party would, but you have to remember he always appealed to different voters, specially those in São Paulo, who see center-right policies way more kindly. Many of his economic policies in São Paulo were taken to save the state from the near bankruptcy caused by thieves like Paulo Maluf and Quercia. In the end, his policies were so successful that the PSDB will complete 20 years in power in São Paulo in 2014, with a strong chance of reaching 24 years, as Alckmin will be running for reelection as a quite popular incumbent. Plus, while moving forward with many privatizations and public-private partnerships, SP's PSDB also adopted many social policies, like Renda Cidadã, Bom Prato, free medicine, etc. Covas and Alckmin ran strongly on this when Maluf and José Genoíno threatened to win in 1998 and 2002, and were successful.

Finally, I wouldn't call those unsatisfied because Brazil has no right-wing alternatives "lunatic reactionaries". I felt quite insulted by that, I must say. I'm currently doing my LLM on the ICC, believe those involved with human rights violations over the 60s and 70s should be severely punished and that all social rights given by the Constitution should be never taken away and I'm a "reactionary" just because I feel my country has no active political right? The fact is that our politics tilt so much to the left today in universities, trade unions, etc. that ANYTHING to the right of the center is labelled "reactionary". The only groups of people that COULD be called rightists today are the Instituto Millenium (which has some strong sponsors, but nearly null political presence) and the Mises Brazil Institute (a largely irrelevant institute devoted to Austrian Economics) That's sad. Look at Chile. Colombia. Mexico. All of them have right wing parties that say they are right wing parties. Brazil has none of that. Even Paulo Maluf says he's a communist nowadays, for God's sake. When FHC said in 2011 the PSDB should embrace more economically-conservative policies, going for a starker contrast to the PT, his party basically ran away from him. And this is not going to change, as the PT and specially human sciences teachers successfully demonized anything resembling a political right.
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« Reply #38 on: October 27, 2012, 06:21:53 pm »
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Runoff day tomorrow! This will be very very interesting. 50 cities around the country will have a runoff, and I estimate at least 15-20 of them are extremely close, some of them pure tossups. All parties will get some quality wins and painful losses.

For example, the PT is set to win in São Paulo, but will probably endure painful losses in Salvador, Campinas and Manaus. The PSDB, meanwhile, will lose São Paulo, but will retake Belém, win Manaus in a huge landslide, and win Teresina. Overall, those 2 will remain the biggest big city-parties, holding about 30-35 cities inside the "top-83" (a group of 83 cities with over 200.000 voters, which together hold about 40% of the voters in Brazil, and, for this reason, end up being the most important cities for presidential elections).

There are 2 big PT-PSB tossups right now (both 50%-50% according to IBOPE), one in Cuiabá, and the other one in the highly strategical Fortaleza - if the PSB wins both, Eduardo Campos will emerge even stronger for 2014 (people in the know say he's already planning his breakup with Dilma's government).

By this same hour tomorrow we'll know for good. Tomorrow's results could have some big implications for the upcoming national election, and many important state elections.
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« Reply #39 on: October 28, 2012, 03:51:16 pm »
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Counting underway, MANY big news developing, MANY interesting stories, MANY tight races... 2014 will be FUN for political junkies in Brazil! =P
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« Reply #40 on: October 28, 2012, 06:27:37 pm »
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I just created this neat graphic showing the 6 parties which elected the biggest number of top-83 Mayors, and where they were before the election. Interesting trends.



A full recap, with predictions for 2013 and 2014 soon, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow.
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« Reply #41 on: October 28, 2012, 06:35:32 pm »
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Great!!

Lula, for the second time, got his candidate elected (the first was Dilma)!!

Oh, and, I'm sorry, Rod. Carlismo is back in Salvador...
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« Reply #42 on: October 28, 2012, 06:46:05 pm »

I just created this neat graphic showing the 6 parties which elected the biggest number of top-83 Mayors, and where they were before the election. Interesting trends.



A full recap, with predictions for 2013 and 2014 soon, maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow.

We can't see the image, that's a link to some Hotmail file.
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« Reply #43 on: October 28, 2012, 06:53:33 pm »
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Can you see it now?
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« Reply #44 on: October 28, 2012, 06:55:34 pm »
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Great!!

Lula, for the second time, got his candidate elected (the first was Dilma)!!

Oh, and, I'm sorry, Rod. Carlismo is back in Salvador...

He got his candidate elected, but his strategy failed in Salvador, Fortaleza, Manaus, Campinas, Vitória, Belo Horizonte... Luckily for him, he got it right where it mattered most for his party.
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« Reply #45 on: October 29, 2012, 05:53:58 am »
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In Manaus, Vanessa couldn't win, it was not about Lula. He can't solve all problems.
In BH, well, you have a mayor who was supported by the PT 4 years ago, and PSDB is strong in Minas. So, considering all that, I don't think Patrus got a bad result at all.
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E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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« Reply #46 on: October 29, 2012, 07:22:57 am »
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Great!!
Lula, for the second time, got his candidate elected (the first was Dilma)!!

At least you have good news from Brazil. Did you know that Municipal Elections were held in Chile yesterday? The oposition achieved a victory over the Piñera coalition.
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« Reply #47 on: October 29, 2012, 08:08:31 am »
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Trying to recap the election, state-by-state, and then on a national note, I'll review region-by region (focusing on the key states) and end with the national scenario.

I'll start with the southeast.

Sâo Paulo

The PT is obviously delighted that they managed to retake the city of São Paulo after 12 years. Actually they seem to have a 12 year-thing in São Paulo, won in 1988 for the first time, then won again against an aged politician in 2000, and in 2012 once again won against and aged politician. They had expected gains in São Paulo's metro area, the area where the party was born and where trade unions still play a big hole (big wins in São Bernardo do Campo and Osasco, nice win in Guarulhos, good wins in Mauá and Santo André as well). The only loss they'll regret is Diadema, a city the party held for 30 straight years, the first city the PT ever won, back in 1982.


The PSDB, meanwhile, kept their super-strength in mid and small-sized towns through the state. In the biggest cities in the interior, they lost 2 cities they held for 20 years (Jundiaí and São José dos Campos), but retained all the other important cities they held (Franca, Sorocaba and Piracicaba). They were also in the coalitions that on über-important Campinas and São José do Rio Preto. Plus, they won back Taubaté and now have in their hands for the first time ever the extremely important city of Santos, which, due to recent economic and social trends (Santos is the home city of the "Pre-Salt" oil), will probably offset the losses in Jundiaí and São José dos Campos (cities that will strongly vote PSDB in 2014 anyway) - the elected mayor of Santos, BTW, is called Paulo Alexandre Barbosa, and he strongly impressed me (young, fluid speaker, unafraid to talk about specifics), seems like the kind of leader the party badly needs.

For 2014, Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) will run for reelection, the favorite right now, but there's no denying the PT will come strongly after him (one big frustration the PT has is the fact that they never won the state government). Alckmin has many supporting parties in the State Congress, and many of them will probably support him in 2014 (the PTB, the PPS and the DEM are certain to endorse him, IMO, and the PRB and the PDT are likely as well). Meanwhile, the PT will have the PP, the PSD and the PC do B on their side, putting things quite even.

The unknown thing for 2014 is what the PMDB, the PSB and the PR will do in this race. The PMDB endorsed Alckmin in 2010, due to its old leader Orestes Quercia. Now Quercia is dead (RIP), and São Paulo's PMDB is run by Michel Temer - Dilma's veep, who'd love to please her, to keep his place in her ticket in 2014. The problem for him is that local PMDB leaders strongly count on the State Government. They could end up going on their on in the 1st ballot (they have a known name in Paulo Skaf).

The PSB, meanwhile, will wait for national instructions from Eduardo Campos - they compose Alckmin's base in the State Congress, and PSDB and PSB ran many important races together through the state, winning Campinas and São José do Rio Preto on the way. If the national PSB stays allied to the PT, they'll support the PT locally, if they do anything different nationally, the local PSB will endorse Alckmin, IMO.

Finally, the PR is a smaller party that has been working with both Dilma and Alckmin. They endorsed Serra this year, and could go anywhere in 2012.

My predictions for 2014 follow:

PSDB's ticket:

Governor: Geraldo Alckmin (no contest).
Vice Governor: many people are interested in this spot. The PSDB wants to have a candidate of their own here, to allow the party to have a natural candidate for the Government in 2018. I identified 3 candidates which are relatively young and could be big vote-getters for the PSDB here: one is Bruno Covas, (some already see him as a shoo-in), Alckmin's state Secretary of the Environment, and the grandson of Mario Covas (the man Alckmin owes his political life to); the second one is Vitor Lippi, a strongly popular 2 term mayor of Sorocaba; and the third one is Fernando Capez (state congressman, former Prosecutor, well known Criminal Law specialist). If the PSDB is forced to negotiate this spot, then the VG candidate could be PRB's Celso Russomano, maybe DEM's Rodrigo Garcia, perhaps PTB's Campos Machado, maybe even PMDB's Paulo Skaf if they're endorsing Alckmin.
Senator: José Serra MAY try, but I think the PSDB will want someone else here, perhaps Ricardo Trípoli or José Aníbal. I do think, though, the PSDB will negotiate this one to have a bigger chance of having the VG spot. This could be an opening to Celso Russomano, Campos Machado, Paulo Skaf, etc.

PT's ticket:

Governor: bloody battle between São Bernardo do Campo Mayor Luiz Marinho, Dilma's Minister of Health Alexandre Padilha, Senator Marta Suplicy and Dilma's Minister of Education Aloisio Mercadante. Marinho and Padilha are the favorites, as they are seen as new politicians in the party, opposed to Suplicy and Mercadante, who have collected a few losses for the PT over the last years. Marinho is a former trade union leader, while Padilha is a respected Medicine Professor (different styles, as you can see). Lula likes Marinho a lot, because they have similar stories, but he also knows Padilha could probably run stronger in a state like São Paulo.
VG: I think the PT will have to negotiate this spot, probably to the PSD, that could then appoint Ribeirão Preto's mayor Darcy Vera, or Congressman Ricardo Izar Junior. The PC do B could appoint Netinho. This could also be Paulo Skaf or Gabriel Chalita if the PMDB joins this ticket. If this is a PT double ticket, this could be Marinho-Padilha or vice-versa, or maybe they could go with their deep bench of Congressmen.
Sen: PT's Eduardo Suplicy is up to reelection. They'd love to get ridden of him, IMO, because he's quite old and kind of a troublemaker for his party sometimes. They have some strong Congressmen to run for this, if Suplicy retires (like Candido Vaccarezza and Arlindo Chinaglia). If they don't run for this, I could see PC do B's Netinho going for this one.

Rio de Janeiro:

The PMDB is now basically a small city party through the country, but there's one stage where they rule everything (big cities, small cities and the state government, of course): Rio de Janeiro. State Governor Sergio Cabral (PMDB) won basically everything he wanted to win, and humiliated his opposition in the city of Rio. He's now thinking about getting a Ministry in Dilma's cabinet, and maybe (just maybe) replacing Michel Temer in Dilma's ticket for 2014.

The only minor losses he had, BTW, were in Campos and São Gonçalo, where candidates supported by his foe Anthony Garotinho won.

Cabral cannot run for reelection. He's preparing his veep, Luiz Fernando Pezão (PMDB), to run for the job. The PT could have a competitive candidate in Senator Lindbergh Farias, but they might be forced to endorse Pezão (and there'll be some controversy about Farias' eligibility, as he's been recently ruled ineligible) - thus, I'll not assemble a PT ticket in this prediction. The national opposition (PSDB/DEM) will probably join forces with former governor Anthony Garotinho (PR), who's been trying to stage a comeback for a while.

PMDB's ticket:

Governor: Luiz Fernando Pezão (no contest).
Vice Governor: negotiable spot. The PMDB will want Eduardo Paes (PMDB's Rio mayor) to run for this in 2018, so they'll be looking for someone with no big political ambition to take this spot.
Senator: PP's Francisco Dornelles will be up for reelection. He'll probably get support from the PMDB.

PR's ticket:

Governor: Anthony Garotinho (if he's eligible). If ineligible, his wife, Rosinha Garotinho.
Vice Governor: No clue. Maybe the DEM will get this, as Garotinho will need the support of Rio's councilman Cesar Maia (DEM).
Senator: Maybe Rodrigo Maia (DEM)? Defeating Dornelles will be tough.

Minas Gerais:

Aecio Neves decided to change his strategy here. Instead of trying to increase the number of big cities  the PSDB holds through the state, he decided to get as many allies as possible through the state, basically endorsing anyone facing the PT. He knows his state could decided the national election in 2014, so he wants to be well seen by mayors through the state, as he goes for the presidency. He did win a big number of the battles he got involved with, which is a plus for him (even though loses in Governador Valadares, Ipatinga, Uberaba and Uberlândia will hurt).

The PT, meanwhile, won 3 big cities in Governador Valadares, Ipatinga (they won everything in the Steel Valley) and Uberlândia. Still, they expected to do much better to battle Aecio in 2014.

It's a given that Marcio Lacerda (PSB) will leave his job to run for the state government, with full support from Aecio Neves. His adversary might be Patrus Ananias, as he didn't do badly this year. But I do think Dilma likes Fernando Pimentel more - a close friend of hers. Pimentel seems to be the favorite right now.

I don't know exactly what the PMDB will do here. They have a potential candidate in Leonardo Quintão. I do think they'll probably endorse the PT here.

Current governor Antonio Anastasia (PSDB) cannot run for reelection.

PSB's ticket:

Governor: Marcio Lacerda.
Vice Governor: No clue. Aecio will try to put someone he likes here.
Senator: Anastasia will run for this, IMO, and will be strongly favored.

PT's ticket:

Governor: Pimentel or Ananias. It's a coin toss.
Vice Governor: Could we have a Pimentel-Ananias ticket? That would make the PT strong. Maybe Leonardo Quintão, maybe Wellington Salgado (?), maybe someone appointed by the PSD (they'll probably endorse the PT in Minas).
Senator: This seat is currently held by a weak politician called Clesio Andrade (PR). The PT should try to get this seat. Why not letting Pimentel or Ananias run for this?

Espírito Santo:

The smallest southeastern state, usually forgotten by its neighbours. Governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) never got too involved with this election. He'll be an overwhelming favorite to win reelection in 2014.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2012, 11:22:18 am by Paleobrazilian »Logged
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« Reply #48 on: October 29, 2012, 08:34:03 pm »
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Moving to the South...

Paraná:

This is an interesting state, because it has a long history of polarized, 2-way elections - many of them ridiculously tight. This has been true for the last 20 years, and will be true in 2014.

For the first time, though, this will be a PT x PSDB battle in this state. In fact, neither of those parties used to be that strong in the state, as they mostly relied on alliances to run here. A big change came in 2004, when Beto Richa (PSDB), son of former Governor José Richa was handily elected Mayor of Curitiba. Running on a strong administration, he was reelected in 2008, and then elected Governor in 2010 after a bloody battle inside his party and on the general election.

To get the nomination spot, Richa had to kick Senator Alvaro Dias (PSDB) out of the run, avoiding a primary. That left Alvaro Dias so pissed that he eventually endorsed his brother, Osmar Dias (PDT), during the race. Osmar Dias had the support of the PT, and despite a lacklustre start, nearly defeated the always-favored Richa.

Richa made quite a few mistakes this year. Basically he gave in contesting big cities, instead promoting PSDB candidates in small cities (where he had OK results). But the big cities ended up causing a lot of pain for him, as he chose losing sides in the 2 biggest cities in the state (Curitiba and Londrina). He's been constantly criticized by PSDB leaders, because they expected him to grow into a future national leader of the party, and he's been fumbling the ball constantly as he tries desperately to get allies for his reelection campaign. Alvaro Dias has been extremely vocal about his shortcomings.

The biggest winner this cycle here is the PT, specially Dilma's Chief of Staff Gleisi Hoffmann. She endorsed Gustavo Fruet (PDT, now elected Mayor of Curitiba) early on. That was a risky pick, because Fruet used to be a PSDB member and vocal critic of Lula, who left the party annoyed with Richa. This win made her extremely strong in the state, and now she's geared up for what should be a straight up, 50-50 battle between PT and PSDB.

PSDB's ticket:

Governor: Beto Richa.
Vice Governor: Flavio Arns (PSDB) currently holds the job, and he's very respected and well known in the state. Richa might feel forced to negotiate the spot to boost his alliance, though.
Senator: Alvaro Dias. Richa cannot mess up with him this time out. Not to mention he's still very popular in the state, as a 3 term Senator and Governor in the 80s.

PT's ticket:

Governor: Gleisi Hoffmann.
Vice Governor: An ally party, I guess. The PDT used to be strong here.
Senator: Osmar Dias won't run against his brother. I could see the PMDB joining the PT here. If so, they could have a competitive candidate called Rafael Greca, former Mayor of Curitiba and FHC's Minister twice.

Rio Grande do Sul:

This is Dilma's "official" home state (like Mittens, this home state thing became an issue for her this year, lol). Rio Grande do Sul is Brazil's most "ideological" state - a strong left and many conservative voters. Also, a tradition of disliking their elected politicians, an a cursed Governor seat, as no one ever got reelected here.

The PT made a mistake here, as they promoted a weak candidate in Porto Alegre while PDT and PC do B, national allies, had stronger candidates. In the end, José Fortunati (PDT) cruised to reelection. Through the state, a mixed bag for most parties - PT, PDT, PMDB, PP and PSDB all had reasons to be happy and angry.

It's hard to predict what will happen in 2014. PT currently controls the state, with governor Tarso Genro. He might have better reelecton prospects then his predecessors, but this is far from a given. Former Mayor of Porto Alegre José Fogaça (PMDB) could go for it (the local PMDB is way more independent then the local PT, and usually opposed to the PT). If he doesn't, the local party has a very deep bench of candidates in the state (like Caxias do Sul Mayor Ivo Sartori and former Governor Germano Rigotto). Maybe Fortunati will leave the city for the state government, but if he doesn't his party will play a big role here anyway.

After a failed 2006-2010 government led by Yeda Crusius, the PSDB has declined here (even with an important win in Pelotas yesterday, led by a ridiculously young candidate who has everything to be a new local leader here), thus I predict they'll endorse anyone who faces the PT.

Finally, one last candidate will probably be sitting Senator Ana Amelia (PP).

This will probably be the most fractured race among the most important states. I'm not confident about making predictions here, other than those I made above.

Santa Catarina:

The final Southern state will probably be a 3-way battle. Incumbent Governor Raimundo Colombo (PSD) will run for reelection. He's got solid support, and elected his candidate, Cesar Junior, in Florianópolis. Meanwhile, the PMDB has a candidate waiting in the wings, 2 term Florianópolis Mayor Dario Berger, who couldn't elected his successor, but managed to get an unexpected win in Joinville, the biggest city in the state. Finally, the PSDB feels it has a strong candidate, Senator Paulo Bauer. They won Blumenau in a huge landslide, so they are confident here.

2 things will be important to see here, before making projections. One is waiting to see if the PMDB will let Berger run or if they'll decide to endorse Colombo, forcing Berger to migrate to the PDT to run (Senator Luiz Henrique, from the PMDB, is a strong ally of Colombo, and doesn't want Berger to run). The second thing to watch is what the PT will do here. Santa Catarina is a state where they are quite weak right now, after 2 failed campaigns in 2010 and 2012.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2012, 08:40:16 pm by Paleobrazilian »Logged
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« Reply #49 on: October 30, 2012, 06:59:37 pm »
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I'm loving you analysis.

I thought Richa was one of the most popular Governors of Brazil. Good to know he isn't. Hoffmann is one of my favourites.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
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