Syrian seaside is the main Alawite-dominated area, then a Alawite-state solution wouldn't be accepted by new Syrian government. I think that Syria can go to be Lebanon 1975-90 minus direct foreign intervention or Afghanistan.
And a question: Is Hariri family of Lebanon helping rebels in Syria? Maybe a seek of revenge.
Assad would still be very well-armed if he retreated to the coast and he would probably get more backing from Russia (who doesn't want to see their base in Tartus ejected -- they couldn't care less about Damascus, which is why they've been moderating). But, yeah, the end-game is probably pessimistic, sectarian warfare (and foreign intervention from
somewhere is inevitable) which may go on for decades. The coast breaking off may become inevitable.
