phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
Posts: 12,906
Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22
|
 |
« on: July 31, 2012, 04:48:04 PM » |
|
For me
Optimistic
The FSA decrees that once Assad has been pushed out that there will be guarantees against Sunni reprisal against Alawites and Christians. The West could back the FSA but than deploy troops to enforce this guarantee. Another scenario is create a state for Alawites and Christians north of Lebanon and leave a land-locked Sunni state. If anything the West was too slow in backing the FSA and should have done so before the global Sunni fundo brigade decided to.
Pessimistic
A protracted Iraq-style sectarian civil war. This has the potential to be dangerous as Sunnis from other hot-spots such as Afghanistan/Iraq and Saudi Arabia trickle into Syria. Syria's Alawites are a lot easier to hate from their point of view than Iraq's Twelvers. Hezbollah could easily come in and take the side of the Alawites and go on a wrecking tour of anti-Assad areas.
|
