Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 30, 2014, 11:05:50 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections
| | |-+  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Tender Branson, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | | |-+  Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS Swing State Poll: Obama with big leads in PA, OH & FL
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS Swing State Poll: Obama with big leads in PA, OH & FL  (Read 1558 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34705
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« on: August 01, 2012, 12:56:57 am »

A snapshot of the race, taken during a burst of summer campaigning, found that Mr. Obama holds an advantage of 6 percentage points over Mr. Romney in Florida and Ohio. The president is in a stronger position in Pennsylvania, leading by 11 percentage points, the poll found. The margin of sampling of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points in each state.

The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac and CBS News, is tracking the presidential contest in six states through polls over the next three months. Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania have a combined 67 electoral votes. Surveys will also be taken in Colorado, Wisconsin and Virginia, which have 32 electoral votes. Four years ago, Mr. Obama won all six states.

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/us/-obama-leading-romney-in-3-pivotal-states-647041/#ixzz22GsSWBzW

Detailed numbers will be released later today on the Quinnipiac page:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34705
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2012, 01:00:59 am »

Good to see.

I'd like to see the Pro-Romney camp invest 50 Mio. $ into Pennsylvania, just like McCain did - with absolutely no effect (maybe even the opposite, pushing the state even further into the Obama-column).
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34705
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2012, 01:05:01 am »

BTW:

The article says that this is Quinnipiac's first set of "likely voters".
Logged
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33810


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2012, 01:05:22 am »
Ignore

Are these Quinnipiac polls or NYT/CBS polls? Pretty huge difference in quality...
Logged


At the very least, this turn of events seems to validate my prediction that Americans are ready and willing to fully embrace fascism.
I dreamed about Lief spanking Rand Paul.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34705
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2012, 01:07:04 am »

Are these Quinnipiac polls or NYT/CBS polls? Pretty huge difference in quality...

No, NYT and CBS pay Quinnipiac to conduct the polls for them. But that doesn't change the quality. Quinnipiac has been a very good pollster in recent years, so don't shoot the messenger. The problem is Mitt Romney after all, not the pollster.
Logged
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33810


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2012, 01:12:22 am »
Ignore

Are these Quinnipiac polls or NYT/CBS polls? Pretty huge difference in quality...

No, NYT and CBS pay Quinnipiac to conduct the polls for them. But that doesn't change the quality. Quinnipiac has been a very good pollster in recent years, so don't shoot the messenger. The problem is Mitt Romney after all, not the pollster.

Oh yeah, as long as it's Quinnipiac doing the polls, that's good. These are pretty good numbers then, though the Florida lead is kind of hard to believe.
« Last Edit: August 01, 2012, 01:48:34 am by Lief »Logged


At the very least, this turn of events seems to validate my prediction that Americans are ready and willing to fully embrace fascism.
I dreamed about Lief spanking Rand Paul.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34705
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2012, 01:37:32 am »

Are these Quinnipiac polls or NYT/CBS polls? Pretty huge difference in quality...

No, NYT and CBS pay Quinnipiac to conduct the polls for them. But that doesn't change the quality. Quinnipiac has been a very good pollster in recent years, so don't shoot the messenger. The problem is Mitt Romney after all, not the pollster.

Oh yeah, as fine it's Quinnipiac doing the polls, that's good. These are pretty good numbers then, though the Florida lead is kind of hard to believe.

Maybe. But remember that SurveyUSA also showed Obama+5 in their latest FL poll.

And Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA basically had the best FL polls in 2008:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=12
Logged
Nagas
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1776
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -7.65

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2012, 01:40:31 am »
Ignore

The latest string of polls out of Florida make me think that Obama has a slight lead. That's worrisome news for Romney.
Logged

Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33810


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2012, 01:45:42 am »
Ignore

Huh, actually looking at the polls, it seems like Obama has been leading in all the recent polls of Florida, except for Purple Strategies which is looking like a big outlier.

Changes since last Quinnipiac polls:

FL: Obama +2
OH: Obama -3
PA: Obama +5
Logged


At the very least, this turn of events seems to validate my prediction that Americans are ready and willing to fully embrace fascism.
I dreamed about Lief spanking Rand Paul.
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4905
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2012, 01:47:56 am »
Ignore

We couldn't possibly be this lucky.
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34705
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2012, 01:48:00 am »

I'm actually more interested what Quinnipiac will find in their Colorado and Wisconsin polls.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34705
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2012, 02:17:19 am »

Full results:

FL: 51-45 Obama
OH: 50-44 Obama
PA: 53-42 Obama

July 24-30, 2012

Florida Likely voters N = 1,177
Ohio Likely voters N = 1,193
Pennsylvania Likely voters N = 1,168

Quote
How the Poll Was Conducted

By THE NEW YORK TIMES
Published: August 1, 2012

The latest Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News polls involved a total of 4,392 telephone interviews conducted July 24 through July 30 with adults in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Results are based on responses from 1,177 likely voters in Florida, 1,193 likely voters in Ohio and 1,168 likely voters in Pennsylvania. Likely voters are adults who say they are registered to vote and will “definitely” vote on Election Day.

All interviewing was conducted from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in Hamden, Conn. Interviews were in English or Spanish.

The telephone numbers called, both for land lines and for cellphones, were from random digit dialing samples provided by Survey Sampling International of Shelton, Conn. The regions within each state were represented in proportion to their share of all telephone numbers. Random digit dialing ensures access to listed and unlisted numbers alike. The completed samples were adjusted to ensure the proper ratio of land-line-only, cellphone-only and dual-phone users. Within each household, one adult was designated by a random procedure to be the respondent.

Interviewers made multiple attempts to reach every phone number in the survey, calling back unanswered numbers on different days at different times of both day and evening.

Each state’s results have been weighted to adjust for variation in the sample relating to region, sex, race, Hispanic origin, age and education.

In theory, in 19 cases out of 20, overall results based on such samples will differ by no more than 3 percentage points in either direction from what would have been obtained by seeking to interview all voters in each of the states. For smaller subgroups, the margin of sampling error is larger. Shifts in results between polls over time also have a larger sampling error.

In addition to sampling error, the practical difficulties of conducting any survey of public opinion may introduce other sources of error into the poll. Variation in the wording and order of questions, for example, may lead to somewhat different results.

Michael R. Kagay of Princeton, N.J., assisted The Times in its polling analysis. Complete questions and results are available at nytimes.com/polls.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/01/us/politics/how-the-poll-was-conducted.html

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/405617/the-quinnipiac-university-new-york-times-cbs-poll.pdf
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9223
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -5.22

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2012, 02:42:11 am »
Ignore

Their Florida and Pennsylvania numbers look too optimistic. PPP found Obama just one point ahead in Florida.

But his (and Brown's for that matter) Ohio numbers have been pretty stable throughout the campaign, which shows what a horrible fit for the state Romney is.
Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13893
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2012, 02:44:36 am »
Ignore

I would love to believe these numbers, but I just can't.... apart from Ohio, which is falling in line with a lot of polls.
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34705
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2012, 06:52:01 am »

The NYT also has a new site with crosstabs:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/swing-state-polls
Logged
Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13893
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2012, 07:11:27 am »
Ignore

The NYT also has a new site with crosstabs:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/swing-state-polls

Those cross tabs are interesting... IF we are to take them as reasonable... Romney's favourables and the Bain/Tax attacks are KILLING him.
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
pepper11
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 664
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2012, 08:45:12 am »
Ignore

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....
« Last Edit: August 01, 2012, 08:51:10 am by pepper11 »Logged

PM Econ: 4.26
PM Soc: -1.22
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5931


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2012, 08:51:21 am »
Ignore

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.
Logged
Gravis Marketing
brittain33
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12964


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2012, 08:53:37 am »
Ignore

Obama just started his messaging on the Ryan budget in Florida and how Romney is standing up for big cuts in Medicare. Let's see if he's seen as a credible messenger on this after Republicans successfully branded the Dems as Medicare cutters in 2010.
Logged
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3784
United States



View Profile
« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2012, 09:06:28 am »
Ignore

Ohio is where the outsourcing ads are running a lot and those sort of ads would be most effective there.
Logged

Please seek a 5150 if your candidate loses.
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34705
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2012, 10:04:40 am »

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ... Tongue
Logged
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5931


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2012, 10:21:58 am »
Ignore

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ... Tongue

Well, that's interesting, because Florida is actually only 40% D by registration and most expect a dropoff for the Democrats of 2 points or so when using a likely voter screen. It's very curious to flip that in the opposite direction.

And where precisely did you get your actual voter registration for Ohio?
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34705
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2012, 10:36:55 am »

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ... Tongue

Well, that's interesting, because Florida is actually only 40% D by registration and most expect a dropoff for the Democrats of 2 points or so when using a likely voter screen. It's very curious to flip that in the opposite direction.

And where precisely did you get your actual voter registration for Ohio?

It doesn't really matter what "most believe". The poll tells us something different.

There is no party registration in OH, but for the other 2.
Logged
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2012, 11:07:39 am »
Ignore

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ... Tongue

Tender Branson, do you honestly believe that if the party ID in Florida in 2008 was D+3, a year in which Democrats shattered records, that it will be D+9 this time??? If so, you're fooling yourself. Same applies for the Ohio poll. Quinnipiac is forceasting the same turnout as in 2008. Not sure what's gotten into Quinnipiac. Remember there Florida poll from a couple months back that was R+3? How could they switch to a likely voter model and find D+9? Makes no sense at all.
Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2012, 11:09:55 am »
Ignore

Basically all Quinnipiac just did was show us how Mitt Romney is performing in a 2008 electorate (D+9, D+8, D+6). I'd be interested in knowing how Romney performs in a likely 2012 electorate.
Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines