Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS Swing State Poll: Obama with big leads in PA, OH & FL

[Tender Branson]

A snapshot of the race, taken during a burst of summer campaigning, found that Mr. Obama holds an advantage of 6 percentage points over Mr. Romney in Florida and Ohio. The president is in a stronger position in Pennsylvania, leading by 11 percentage points, the poll found. The margin of sampling of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points in each state.

The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac and CBS News, is tracking the presidential contest in six states through polls over the next three months. Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania have a combined 67 electoral votes. Surveys will also be taken in Colorado, Wisconsin and Virginia, which have 32 electoral votes. Four years ago, Mr. Obama won all six states.

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/news/us/-obama-leading-romney-in-3-pivotal-states-647041/#ixzz22GsSWBzW

Detailed numbers will be released later today on the Quinnipiac page:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute

[Tender Branson]

Good to see.

I'd like to see the Pro-Romney camp invest 50 Mio. $ into Pennsylvania, just like McCain did - with absolutely no effect (maybe even the opposite, pushing the state even further into the Obama-column).

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The article says that this is Quinnipiac's first set of "likely voters".

[Lief 🗽]

Are these Quinnipiac polls or NYT/CBS polls? Pretty huge difference in quality...

[Tender Branson]

Are these Quinnipiac polls or NYT/CBS polls? Pretty huge difference in quality...

No, NYT and CBS pay Quinnipiac to conduct the polls for them. But that doesn't change the quality. Quinnipiac has been a very good pollster in recent years, so don't shoot the messenger. The problem is Mitt Romney after all, not the pollster.

[Lief 🗽]

Are these Quinnipiac polls or NYT/CBS polls? Pretty huge difference in quality...

No, NYT and CBS pay Quinnipiac to conduct the polls for them. But that doesn't change the quality. Quinnipiac has been a very good pollster in recent years, so don't shoot the messenger. The problem is Mitt Romney after all, not the pollster.

Oh yeah, as long as it's Quinnipiac doing the polls, that's good. These are pretty good numbers then, though the Florida lead is kind of hard to believe.

[Tender Branson]

Are these Quinnipiac polls or NYT/CBS polls? Pretty huge difference in quality...

No, NYT and CBS pay Quinnipiac to conduct the polls for them. But that doesn't change the quality. Quinnipiac has been a very good pollster in recent years, so don't shoot the messenger. The problem is Mitt Romney after all, not the pollster.

Oh yeah, as fine it's Quinnipiac doing the polls, that's good. These are pretty good numbers then, though the Florida lead is kind of hard to believe.

Maybe. But remember that SurveyUSA also showed Obama+5 in their latest FL poll.

And Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA basically had the best FL polls in 2008:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=12

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

The latest string of polls out of Florida make me think that Obama has a slight lead. That's worrisome news for Romney.

[Lief 🗽]

Huh, actually looking at the polls, it seems like Obama has been leading in all the recent polls of Florida, except for Purple Strategies which is looking like a big outlier.

Changes since last Quinnipiac polls:

FL: Obama +2
OH: Obama -3
PA: Obama +5

[Bandit3 the Worker]

We couldn't possibly be this lucky.

[Tender Branson]

I'm actually more interested what Quinnipiac will find in their Colorado and Wisconsin polls.

[Tender Branson]

Full results:

FL: 51-45 Obama
OH: 50-44 Obama
PA: 53-42 Obama

July 24-30, 2012

Florida Likely voters N = 1,177
Ohio Likely voters N = 1,193
Pennsylvania Likely voters N = 1,168

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http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/405617/the-quinnipiac-university-new-york-times-cbs-poll.pdf

[Landslide Lyndon]

Their Florida and Pennsylvania numbers look too optimistic. PPP found Obama just one point ahead in Florida.

But his (and Brown's for that matter) Ohio numbers have been pretty stable throughout the campaign, which shows what a horrible fit for the state Romney is.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I would love to believe these numbers, but I just can't.... apart from Ohio, which is falling in line with a lot of polls.

[Tender Branson]

The NYT also has a new site with crosstabs:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/swing-state-polls

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The NYT also has a new site with crosstabs:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/swing-state-polls

Those cross tabs are interesting... IF we are to take them as reasonable... Romney's favourables and the Bain/Tax attacks are KILLING him.

[pepper11]

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

[krazen1211]

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

[Brittain33]

Obama just started his messaging on the Ryan budget in Florida and how Romney is standing up for big cuts in Medicare. Let's see if he's seen as a credible messenger on this after Republicans successfully branded the Dems as Medicare cutters in 2010.

[DrScholl]

Ohio is where the outsourcing ads are running a lot and those sort of ads would be most effective there.

[Tender Branson]

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ...

[krazen1211]

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ...

Well, that's interesting, because Florida is actually only 40% D by registration and most expect a dropoff for the Democrats of 2 points or so when using a likely voter screen. It's very curious to flip that in the opposite direction.

And where precisely did you get your actual voter registration for Ohio?

[Tender Branson]

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ...

Well, that's interesting, because Florida is actually only 40% D by registration and most expect a dropoff for the Democrats of 2 points or so when using a likely voter screen. It's very curious to flip that in the opposite direction.

And where precisely did you get your actual voter registration for Ohio?

It doesn't really matter what "most believe". The poll tells us something different.

There is no party registration in OH, but for the other 2.

[MorningInAmerica]

Florida D+9! Ohio D+ 8!

Rightttt....

GIGO. Shrug.

I already thought you would complain about the sample. But Quinnipiac asked both questions in this poll: partisan ID and how respondents are registered.

How those "likely voters" are currently registered:

FL: 42% DEM, 36% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
OH: 42% DEM, 35% GOP, 22% IND/OTH
PA: 46% DEM, 40% GOP, 14% IND/OTH

Very similar to the actual voter registration numbers in each state.

But of course you don't like the numbers ...

Tender Branson, do you honestly believe that if the party ID in Florida in 2008 was D+3, a year in which Democrats shattered records, that it will be D+9 this time??? If so, you're fooling yourself. Same applies for the Ohio poll. Quinnipiac is forceasting the same turnout as in 2008. Not sure what's gotten into Quinnipiac. Remember there Florida poll from a couple months back that was R+3? How could they switch to a likely voter model and find D+9? Makes no sense at all.

[MorningInAmerica]

Basically all Quinnipiac just did was show us how Mitt Romney is performing in a 2008 electorate (D+9, D+8, D+6). I'd be interested in knowing how Romney performs in a likely 2012 electorate.