Make up a map between you and the preceding poster.

[後援会]

California Gubernatorial Election, 2022



After the first round, two Democrats face off once again in the second round, Democrat Antonio from San Francisco and Democrat Koenkai from Berkeley.

Both feeling like they've locked down their base territories in the Bay Area, the North Bay for Antonio and the East/Southern Bay for Koenkai, both rush to Southern California to sell themselves. Antonio quickly builds financial support in Hollywood, a largely unsuccessful gambit due to his opposition to the strict anti-piracy demanded by Hollywood. Koenkai does not return their calls either. Koenkai attempts to appeal to largely impoverished, largely Hispanic farming communities by lambasting certain environmental policies, gaining him support in some crowds but losing it in others. At the same time, Koenkai aligns with several ethnic minority groups lambasting gentrification, a bridge too far for Antonio and indeed many voters. Both candidates attempt to pander to Hispanic voters so hard that both go on record that they will essentially stop enforcing any immigration laws.

Largely due to personal ties in the Silicon Valley, Koenkai receives huge wads of cash from the Silicon Valley. However, Antonio makes inroads by snagging financial support from several internet companies (Google, Facebook, etc), despite being crushed in the Silicon Valley money race.

Both candidates promise far more education funding than they could possibly deliver as Governor, but due to Koenkai having supported California's parent trigger bill, the teacher's unions deliver a needed endorsement, as well as hordes of cash, to Antonio. Both candidates propose universal health care plans, but Antonio's goes far further, Koenkai proposing to only sponsor catastrophic health insurance. Both these spark a waves of endorsements for both politicians that pidgeon-holes Koenkai as the "de-facto Republican", despite California being a one-party state.

On election day, Antonio finds himself doing much worse than expected in San Francisco proper due to Koenkai winning most of the ethnic vote. However, Antonio completely annihilates Koenkai in counties north of the bay, running up huge margins. Koenkai performs strongly in the South Bay and East Bay, but still loses them due to being pinned the "de-facto Republican".

Koenkai runs margins in the Californian agricultural heartland even higher than Republicans used to, largely due to taking both Republican and a large chunk of Hispanic voters, but still loses to Antonio in vote-heavy Los Angeles due to teacher's unions GOTV.

Koenkai, largely due to being more conservative on religiously-charged issues and just as willing to pander, wins Hispanic voters 51-49% and sweeps Asian voters 63-37% due to ID politics.

Republican turnout is below-average, largely due to law-and-order types disgusted with the noted "softness on crime" of both Democrats. However, largely due to being attacked by the teacher's unions, Koenkai wins Republicans 69-31%. Koenkai also manages to win Democrats, by the narrowest of margins (50.4%-49.6%). However, some of Koenkai's culturally moderate views, ethnic play, and criticism of environmental policies come back to bite him, as he gets wiped out among white moderate independents. Antonio triumphs among non-hispanic white voters 45-55%. Antoniotriumphs among independent voters by a margin of 57-43.

Antonio : 51.2%
Koenkai: 48.8%

It is quite noticeably, the closest the more moderate candidate in a Californian gubernatorial election has come towards winning. But not enough.

[後援会]

Democratic Presidential Primary, 1972

In the race to select a candidate to defeat Richard Nixon, Senator Koenkai of New Hampshire and Congressman Joyce of Florida are both candidates.

Joyce runs on a strident anti-war program while Koenkai largely runs on an electability platform, trying to avoid talking about voting in favor of the Gulf of Tonkin resolution, and largely playing up voting in favor of Civil Rights legislation.

Congressman Joyce stuns the country with a surprise, albeit narrow plurality (29%, the nearest candidate having 24%) victory. The field immediately narrows and knowing that Joyce has a lock on the Florida primary, much of the Democratic establishment rallies behind the Senator from New Hampshire, who still goes to win a smaller-than-expected 51%-45% victory in New Hampshire, reminiscent of Johnson in '68.

Much of the establishment is conflicted and several Southern Democrats flee to Governor Noname of Kentucky, a labor-friendly moderate on civil rights issues, in order to try to stop Joyce in Florida. Noname enjoys a surge in polls, but Joyce pulls out a narrow victory in Florida, 49%-44%.

The election immediately moves to Illinois, where Joyce seems to be pulling off a victory as Koenkai and Noname divide up the votes. However, suspicious "late returns" from Cook County quickly put Koenkai over Joyce and Noname, 39%-37%-23%.

Somewhat demoralized, the Joyce campaign moves their battle to Wisconsin, where this time, they managed to win a reasonable 42%-31%-29%.

Koenkai waltzes into Massachusetts confident of a landslide, but a last minute Kennedy endorsement for Joyce torpedoes the Koenkai campaign, and although Koenkai wins Boston proper, Joyce wins most of the state, taking it 54%-44%.

The battle goes toward Pennslyvania where once again, Joyce pulls ahead of a divided field until returns from Philadelphia proper send Koenkai's vote total soaring. 35%-33%-32%.

The Washington D.C. race is brutal as a nasty negative attack fanning unsubstantiated rumors of racism in the Joyce campaign, while reminding voters of Koenkai's civil rights record, blares on DC airwaves. Koenkai turns a 20% deficit in the polls into a 59%-34% victory.

In Indiana, the same ads backfire as Noname accuses Koenkai of ties to "black radical" organizations. This is not helped when the Black Panthers actually endorse Koenkai, a relatively unwanted endorsement. Koenkai sinks in the polls, but Noname actually pulls out a victory against Joyce as many of Koenkai's supporters flee. 41%-35%-24%.

In a tremendous act of incompetence, the Noname campaign actually fails to get his name on the ballot in Ohio. Many of his supporters flee to both candidates, although Koenkai does somewhat better, very narrowly taking the state 46%-45%.

Noname sweeps Tennessee and North Carolina.

Although Koenkai leads in Nebraska due to strong support from rural residents, surburban Omaha turns out in force for Joyce and he takes the state, 49%-43%. Noname sweeps West Virginia.

Maryland is an extremely tough battle, as Noname sweeps Southern Democrats, Koenkai domnates in Maryland, and Joyce dominates everywhere else. Koenkai eventually takes the state, 36-34-29.

On the same day is Michigan, another dead-heat between all three. Joyce narrowly defeats Noname, 39-38-23. The two narrow defeats are exceptionally demoralizing to the Noname campaign and it never really recovers.

Joyce subsequently sweeps Oregon and Rhode Island.

After a very close fight, the bottom falls off of Koenkai's campaign as the Black Panther endorsement comes home to roost. Though Koenkai does win Oakland. Joyce triumps, 55%-42%. This is especially devastating as California's delegates, all 271, are winner-take-all. Joyce also sweeps New Mexico and South Dakota. However, Koenkai pulls off a narrow 51%-48% victory in New Jersey.

The convention is unsurprisingly hung.After an extremely angry and debated floor fight based on how to seat delegates from when and where, Joyce takes 47% of the delegates, to Koenkai's 33% and Noname's 20% Noname subsequently throws his support to Koenkai, but the Indiana delegation as well as Florida delegates pledged to Noname switch their votes to Joyce, allowing him to triumph with 54.3% of the delegates.

Nixon is re-elected.