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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Will the Democrats gain 9 net seats in the House?
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Question: Will the Democrats make it over 200 seats in the House of Representatives?
Yes   -14 (82.4%)
No   -3 (17.6%)
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Total Voters: 17

Author Topic: Will the Democrats gain 9 net seats in the House?  (Read 301 times)
Dereich
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« on: August 01, 2012, 01:06:13 pm »
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The forum seems agreed that the Democrats won't gain 25 seats, but will they gain 9? 9 would lead to a nice even 200 seats and seems about what they might get.
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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2012, 08:33:45 pm »
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The forum seems agreed that the Democrats won't gain 25 seats, but will they gain 9? 9 would lead to a nice even 200 seats and seems about what they might get.

I looked into my crystal ball, and saw that the Dems have about a 40% chance of hitting the number 9 that you pose. The top of the bell curve is around 2-4 seats. Above a 10 seat gain, the percentage odds fall off rapidly.  The Pubs have built a rather formidable wall.
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