AZ-02: GQR Research: Barber on track to keep his seat

[Miles]

Taken by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. It doesn't appear to be commissioned by either party.

Ron Barber (D)- 53%
Martha McSally (R)- 40%

503 LV, 4.4% MoE

Barber has a 47/28 approval rating; only 58% haven't heard enough about McSally.

The partisan composition was 33D 32R 35I.

Obama leads Romny by 1, 47-46, which seems a bit generous to me.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The chance to win this was in the special and now it is too late thanks to Jesse Kelly.


Obama by 1 is in line with a statewide win of about 10 points or so Romney, which fits with the PPP poll. McCain won these boundaries by 1 or so, correct?

[Miles]

The chance to win this was in the special and now it is too late thanks to Jesse Kelly.


Obama by 1 is in line with a statewide win of about 10 points or so Romney, which fits with the PPP poll. McCain won these boundaries by 1 or so, correct?

Yes; it got a few points bluer, but it didn't flip to an Obama district.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The chance to win this was in the special and now it is too late thanks to Jesse Kelly.


Obama by 1 is in line with a statewide win of about 10 points or so Romney, which fits with the PPP poll. McCain won these boundaries by 1 or so, correct?

Yes; it got a few points bluer, but it didn't flip to an Obama district.

Who did you think it was too generous to?

[Torie]

The chance to win this was in the special and now it is too late thanks to Jesse Kelly.


Obama by 1 is in line with a statewide win of about 10 points or so Romney, which fits with the PPP poll. McCain won these boundaries by 1 or so, correct?

Yes; it got a few points bluer, but it didn't flip to an Obama district.

No, but if you deduct 5 or 6 points from the McCain total due to his favorite son status, it most certainly is an Obama CD now. I put this seat in the "likely Dem" category, which means that the Pub has no more than a 10% or so chance of winning it. The Pubs already had their best shot, when the CD was more Pub per its old lines in the special election, and the Pubs nominated road kill. They just blew it, as they have before with their candidates after Kolbe retired. The guy running to replace Kolbe was an LDS guy who believed in creationism among other things, characterizing evolution as a fatally flawed theory. He was a good golfer though! 

[Zioneer]

The chance to win this was in the special and now it is too late thanks to Jesse Kelly.


Obama by 1 is in line with a statewide win of about 10 points or so Romney, which fits with the PPP poll. McCain won these boundaries by 1 or so, correct?

Yes; it got a few points bluer, but it didn't flip to an Obama district.

No, but if you deduct 5 or 6 points from the McCain total due to his favorite son status, it most certainly is an Obama CD now. I put this seat in the "likely Dem" category, which means that the Pub has no more than a 10% or so chance of winning it. The Pubs already had their best shot, when the CD was more Pub per its old lines in the special election, and the Pubs nominated road kill. They just blew it, as they have before with their candidates after Kolbe retired. The guy running to replace Kolbe was an LDS guy who believed in creationism among other things, characterizing evolution as a fatally flawed theory. He was a good golfer though! 

That is what most LDS folks believe, so what would you expect? (I'm an exception, but as with a lot of LDS issues, I'm an outlier.)

[Miles]

The chance to win this was in the special and now it is too late thanks to Jesse Kelly.


Obama by 1 is in line with a statewide win of about 10 points or so Romney, which fits with the PPP poll. McCain won these boundaries by 1 or so, correct?

Yes; it got a few points bluer, but it didn't flip to an Obama district.

No, but if you deduct 5 or 6 points from the McCain total due to his favorite son status, it most certainly is an Obama CD now.

Good point.

I guess Obama would have probably won the new 1st too, if you account for the home state effect McCain had.