NC: Rasmussen: Romney up 5

[MilesC56]

New Poll: North Carolina President by Rasmussen on 2012-8-1

Summary: D: 44%, R: 49%, I: 3%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[krazen1211]

Excellent poll!


Indeed, North Carolina media markets have dried up a bit.

[MorningInAmerica]

I'm working in the CLT area this summer and have noticed too that the ads from both Obama and Romney have dropped off since late spring, early summer. Sign that NC will be out of reach?

[MorningInAmerica]

This represents an increase for Romney from Rasmussen's June 25th poll. Then, Romney led 47-44%.

Romney leads with independents by 30, 59-29%.
Romney's favs are at 50/47%
Obama's job rating: 47/51%

[Lief]

Yes, one Rasmussen poll surely means that this state is no longer competitive.

[Tender Branson]

Yes, one Rasmussen poll surely means that this state is no longer competitive.

Yeah, and we all know that McCain won the state by 20:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080908019

Also (look at date and company):

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=3720080813016

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yeah and we all know that Lehman is going to reverse collapse and Palin is going to be picked again by Romney.

[krazen1211]

I'm working in the CLT area this summer and have noticed too that the ads from both Obama and Romney have dropped off since late spring, early summer. Sign that NC will be out of reach?

Virginia too, soon. The vicious attacks on capitalism will soon resonate among the wealthy voters in Virginia. Possibly more than any other state, the Democrats are reliant on wealthy voters in Virginia.

Hence of course Connolly covering his own rear by voting for tax cuts!

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Yes, one Rasmussen poll surely means that this state is no longer competitive.

One where he has a clearly insurmountable five point lead at that!

[True Federalist]

I'm working in the CLT area this summer and have noticed too that the ads from both Obama and Romney have dropped off since late spring, early summer. Sign that NC will be out of reach?

More likely a sign that this is a slow period for campaigning.  The next flurry of serious campaigning and ad buys will be when Romney announces his running mate and both parties try to define him in the minds of voters.

[MilesC56]

I hardly ever watch TV, but I watched Jeopardy for a half hour today and I saw at least 3 Romney ads. I'm sure that has something to do with Romney's increased standing here.

Oddly enough, I only saw 1 Obama ad and I disagreed with it (he was attacking Romney's stance on abortion).

[Senator MaxQue]

I'm working in the CLT area this summer and have noticed too that the ads from both Obama and Romney have dropped off since late spring, early summer. Sign that NC will be out of reach?

Probably a sign than people are in vacations and don't want to care about politics.

[mondale84]

GAME CHANGER!!!!!!

[MorningInAmerica]

Yes, one Rasmussen poll surely means that this state is no longer competitive.

Do you guys even read anymore, or just have scripts you type from?

I'm working in the CLT area this summer and have noticed too that the ads from both Obama and Romney have dropped off since late spring, early summer. Sign that NC will be out of reach?

No one said the poll meant NC was out of contention. We simply said that we've both noticed less ads in NC since early summer, and questioned whether that meant it was being less competitive. And Miles clearly refuted it. Everything else about "well NC must not bee competitive" from the sarcastic liberals was just to see themselves type a post.

[pbrower2a]

Yes, one Rasmussen poll surely means that this state is no longer competitive.

Do you guys even read anymore, or just have scripts you type from?

Irony was intended.

I'm working in the CLT area this summer and have noticed too that the ads from both Obama and Romney have dropped off since late spring, early summer. Sign that NC will be out of reach?

No one said the poll meant NC was out of contention. We simply said that we've both noticed less ads in NC since early summer, and questioned whether that meant it was being less competitive. And Miles clearly refuted it. Everything else about "well NC must not bee competitive" from the sarcastic liberals was just to see themselves type a post.
[/quote]

5% -- still competitive.

8% -- fringe of competitiveness.

12% or more -- out of competition. 

[MorningInAmerica]

5% -- still competitive.

8% -- fringe of competitiveness.

12% or more -- out of competition. 

d'wha'??

[pbrower2a]

I can't give exact numbers, let alone a workable algorithm. The only leads that matter in the end are those at the end of the vote count or after victory is clinched for a candidate. The continuum between closeness in a statewide election as for the President (Missouri and North Carolina in 2008) and overwhelming blowouts (DC and Wyoming in 2008) has no clear divide.

With enough time and effort a state might swing in an unexpected manner. Thus if President Obama were behind by 10% in Tennessee (I do not believe that the case) late in 2011 and perceived that the state were ripe for him he might make numerous appearances in the Volunteer State, and his campaign would expend much on political advertising, if such were the only way in which to win. But July 2012? No.

As time runs out in a close election nominees withdraw efforts in places not needed for a win and in sure things for themselves. But if winning depends on winning one state and the hope that one will win everything close, then you have John McCain making a last-minute campaign in Pennsylvania... to the detriment of efforts in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, all but one of which he lost.

If President Obama is up by 2% in Ohio and down by 5% in North Carolina in late October and either one of them is possibly the difference between winning and losing, then where do you think his campaign will expend last-minute resources?   Bingo.

But this is on the assumption that the Presidential election is close at least most of the electoral season. If the election isn't close then it isn't very interesting, is it?       

[Senator Napoleon]

I'm working in the CLT area this summer and have noticed too that the ads from both Obama and Romney have dropped off since late spring, early summer. Sign that NC will be out of reach?

Virginia too, soon. The vicious attacks on capitalism will soon resonate among the wealthy voters in Virginia. Possibly more than any other state, the Democrats are reliant on wealthy voters in Virginia.

Hence of course Connolly covering his own rear by voting for tax cuts!

Many of those wealthy voters are employed by the federal government.

[MorningInAmerica]

Apparently I'm mistaken about North Carolina seeing less ads then the rest of the states.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

NC saw over $2.6 million in ad spending last week (July 23-29th). Behind only Florida with $4.4M million, Ohio with $3.4 million in ad spending, and Virginia with $3.1 million in ad spending last week.

Hmph...must not be watching enough tv.

[timothyinMD]

More confirmation that Romney has a steady marginal lead in NC

[Comrade Funk]

Congrats GOP. You're winning a state you should be winning. Now all you need to do is change the tide in Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, and then you can brag.

[krazen1211]

I'm working in the CLT area this summer and have noticed too that the ads from both Obama and Romney have dropped off since late spring, early summer. Sign that NC will be out of reach?

Virginia too, soon. The vicious attacks on capitalism will soon resonate among the wealthy voters in Virginia. Possibly more than any other state, the Democrats are reliant on wealthy voters in Virginia.

Hence of course Connolly covering his own rear by voting for tax cuts!

Many of those wealthy voters are employed by the federal government.

Many yes, in areas such as defense. Some are not. Many of them want to pay confiscatory taxes.

Northern Virginia is only 25-30% of the state.