Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 29, 2014, 07:02:36 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2012 Elections
| | |-+  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Tender Branson, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | | |-+  Pew: Obama Has Double-Digit Lead Over Romney
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Pew: Obama Has Double-Digit Lead Over Romney  (Read 1671 times)
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13455
United States


View Profile WWW
« on: August 02, 2012, 05:15:32 pm »
Ignore

If there is already a previous thread on this poll, feel free to delete it:

Obama Leads Nationwide, But Closer Race in Swing States

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted July 16-26, 2012, among 2,508 adults, including 1,956 registered voters, finds that, in keeping with his favorability advantage, Obama continues to hold a sizable lead over Romney in the election contest. Currently, 51% say they support Obama or lean toward him, while 41% support or lean toward Romney. This is largely unchanged from earlier in July and consistent with polling over the course of this year. Across eight Pew Research Center surveys since January, Obama has led Romney by between four and 12 percentage points.



Obama holds only a four-point edge (48% to 44%) across 12 of this year’s key battleground states. While the data does not allow a state-by-state analysis, the overall balance of support in these closely contested states has remained level in recent months, with Obama slightly ahead, but neither candidate holding a significant advantage.

The relative stability of this race can be seen within most voting blocs as well. Whites have consistently favored Romney over Obama, while minority support for Obama has held relatively steady. As has been the case all year, women favor Obama by a wide margin; currently 56% of women support Obama, while 37% back Romney. Men are more evenly divided (46% Obama, 47% Romney). Obama’s support among voters under 30 remains strong (58% vs. 34% for Romney in the current survey), while voters 65 and older are divided (49% Romney vs. 45% Obama).
« Last Edit: August 02, 2012, 05:23:05 pm by Frodo »Logged

Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18845
United States
View Profile
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2012, 05:20:23 pm »
Ignore

Junk.

Wasn't Pew ranked as the worst pollster on Nate Silver's house effect thing?
Logged
Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13455
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2012, 05:31:26 pm »
Ignore

Junk.

Wasn't Pew ranked as the worst pollster on Nate Silver's house effect thing?

I wasn't aware of that -can you link me to where you found that information?  I have googled 'Nate Silver and Pew', and according to this site, in June 2010, he rated Pew well above average.  

I don't know what his June 2012 ratings are.  

Perhaps you would know? 
Logged

Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4760
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2012, 05:55:35 pm »
Ignore

I think it's gonna be a blowout, folks. This poll is evidence of it.
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18845
United States
View Profile
« Reply #4 on: August 02, 2012, 05:57:55 pm »
Ignore

Junk.

Wasn't Pew ranked as the worst pollster on Nate Silver's house effect thing?

I wasn't aware of that -can you link me to where you found that information?  I have googled 'Nate Silver and Pew', and according to this site, in June 2010, he rated Pew well above average.  

I don't know what his June 2012 ratings are.  

Perhaps you would know?  

That changed, apparently.  Pew is ranked as having a 3.2 point bias for Democrats in their polls.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2012, 06:00:35 pm by Senator Scott »Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28005
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #5 on: August 02, 2012, 05:58:52 pm »
Ignore

It's a registered voter poll and a probable outlier given it's showing a movement other polls aren't.
Logged

I wonder why Van Heusen never bothered to make women's clothing?
Senator-elect Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13125
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: August 02, 2012, 06:08:11 pm »
Ignore

No... Obama is probably 2-3% ahead and has been for the last 3 months...
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
pepper11
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 663
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: August 02, 2012, 07:45:03 pm »
Ignore

Sample includes 32% Dem, 18% GOP

Biases are slowly starting to become more blatant.
Logged

PM Econ: 4.26
PM Soc: -1.22
MorningInAmerica
polijunkie3057
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 780
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.55, S: 0.52

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: August 02, 2012, 07:59:44 pm »
Ignore

Sample includes 32% Dem, 18% GOP

Biases are slowly starting to become more blatant.

Haven't looked it up yet, but are you kidding? 32%D, 18% R??? By the way, if you notice Senator Scott's link, it inidcates that Pew has a worse Democratic house effect than PPP. That should tell you all you need to know.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2012, 08:04:36 pm by MorningInAmerica »Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
A.G. Snowstalker
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17280


View Profile
« Reply #9 on: August 02, 2012, 08:15:15 pm »
Ignore

If only.
Logged

mondale84
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1322
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #10 on: August 02, 2012, 08:31:54 pm »
Ignore

Sample includes 32% Dem, 18% GOP

Biases are slowly starting to become more blatant.

This isn't even bias, it has to be a bad joke...
Logged


"There are no men like me. There's only me."
Ray Goldfield
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 894


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: August 02, 2012, 08:32:23 pm »
Ignore

Sample includes 32% Dem, 18% GOP

Biases are slowly starting to become more blatant.

Holy cow, that's just awful!

Well, that explains this poll...
Logged
Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4760
Venezuela


Political Matrix
E: -10.00, S: -9.92

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: August 02, 2012, 08:33:48 pm »
Ignore

So much GOP denial, so little time.
Logged

Try this wonderful POPULIST BLOG...

http://onlinelunchpail.blogspot.com
Corporate Worship
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38469
United States


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: August 02, 2012, 09:09:10 pm »
Ignore

It'd be interesting to see the reaction if Romney held this kind of a lead in any national poll. I guess we don't have to worry about that happening anytime soon though considering how he's handling himself...
Logged

krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5783


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: August 02, 2012, 09:09:56 pm »
Ignore

Junk Poll!
Logged
krazen1211
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5783


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: August 02, 2012, 09:15:28 pm »
Ignore

Obama holds only a four-point edge (48% to 44%) across 12 of this year’s key battleground states. While the data does not allow a state-by-state analysis, the overall balance of support in these closely contested states has remained level in recent months, with Obama slightly ahead, but neither candidate holding a significant advantage.



This pollster also thinks Obama is holding an identical 48-44 lead in the South. Haha, nope! Whites have fled the Democratic party.
Logged
pepper11
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 663
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: August 02, 2012, 09:17:25 pm »
Ignore

It'd be interesting to see the reaction if Romney held this kind of a lead in any national poll. I guess we don't have to worry about that happening anytime soon though considering how he's handling himself...

If the sample was R+12 there would be twice as many people calling it out as junk, as they should.
Logged

PM Econ: 4.26
PM Soc: -1.22
Senator-elect Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13125
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: August 02, 2012, 09:25:20 pm »
Ignore

So much GOP denial, so little time.

No, it's a shocking poll... you can't have those kinds of breakdowns. No more than the poll a few months back which had Romney LEADING among women and close in the youth vote.

This is as bad as that.
Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
mondale84
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1322
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -3.30

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #18 on: August 02, 2012, 10:01:59 pm »
Ignore

Obama holds only a four-point edge (48% to 44%) across 12 of this year’s key battleground states. While the data does not allow a state-by-state analysis, the overall balance of support in these closely contested states has remained level in recent months, with Obama slightly ahead, but neither candidate holding a significant advantage.



This pollster also thinks Obama is holding an identical 48-44 lead in the South. Haha, nope! Whites have fled the Democratic party.

Yay racism!
Logged


"There are no men like me. There's only me."
pepper11
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 663
United States


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: August 02, 2012, 10:37:31 pm »
Ignore

Obama holds only a four-point edge (48% to 44%) across 12 of this year’s key battleground states. While the data does not allow a state-by-state analysis, the overall balance of support in these closely contested states has remained level in recent months, with Obama slightly ahead, but neither candidate holding a significant advantage.



This pollster also thinks Obama is holding an identical 48-44 lead in the South. Haha, nope! Whites have fled the Democratic party.

Yay racism!

So let me get this straight. If you are white, live in the south, and don't vote for Obama, you are a racist?? What about Hispanics? If they vote Republican, are they racist? Blacks that vote Republican? That's quite a charge to be throwing around so flippantly.

« Last Edit: August 02, 2012, 10:39:16 pm by pepper11 »Logged

PM Econ: 4.26
PM Soc: -1.22
memphis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14619


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -3.83


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: August 02, 2012, 10:43:03 pm »
Ignore

Sample includes 32% Dem, 18% GOP

Biases are slowly starting to become more blatant.

So the sample is 50% indy? In that case, it's still a good result for the President.
Logged

I cannot do anything good under my own power. 
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28005
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #21 on: August 02, 2012, 11:06:23 pm »
Ignore

This pollster also thinks Obama is holding an identical 48-44 lead in the South. Haha, nope! Whites have fled the Democratic party.

Given the lopsided partisan balance in this poll, their number for the South makes sense, especially when you consider that they are likely using the Census region to define the South and that includes DC, Maryland, and Delaware which are all solidly Democratic areas, tho not enough to have Obama lead the South without the skewed partisan balance.  Still, there's nothing to indicate they did worse in the South than they did elsewhere.

They have Southern Non-Hispanic Whites going 58-33 Romney.
Logged

I wonder why Van Heusen never bothered to make women's clothing?
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3377
United States



View Profile
« Reply #22 on: August 02, 2012, 11:17:02 pm »
Ignore

Polls do weigh party ID, otherwise this poll would have been much more heavily skewed toward Obama with such a gap in sample. Nobody expects Obama to win by this much, but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times.
Logged
asexual trans victimologist
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12465


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2012, 12:42:04 am »
Ignore

This isn't a good poll.

krazen's 'the Democrats are the party of =/=well-off white establishment, and this is somehow a bad thing and also they are somehow exclusively so' narrative isn't good either, but we shouldn't mistake that for the poll being good.
Logged

A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

Nathan-land.  As much fun as watching paint dry... literally.
Kalwejt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36863


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: August 03, 2012, 12:47:39 am »
Ignore

Junk Poll!

What a terrible day, I just agreed with krazen Sad
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines