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| | | |-+  South Dakota, Nielson Brothers Polling : Romney 49 Obama 43
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Author Topic: South Dakota, Nielson Brothers Polling : Romney 49 Obama 43  (Read 703 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: August 03, 2012, 01:30:04 pm »
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http://www.scribd.com/doc/101955145/Final-July-Survey-Candidates-and-Issues

No idea about how reliable the pollster is.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #1 on: August 03, 2012, 01:36:18 pm »
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Having a hard time believing SD is 2 points closer than 2008.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: August 03, 2012, 01:39:19 pm »

If Obama is ahead nationally by 11 like Pew said and ahead in swing states like PA, OH and FL by 11, 6 and 6 like Quinnipiac said - then yes - it will be closer.
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mondale84
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« Reply #3 on: August 03, 2012, 01:41:48 pm »
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Seems optimistic, though I think Obama has a ceiling of 43 at this point.
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« Reply #4 on: August 03, 2012, 02:22:52 pm »
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They did reasonably well in 2010 and they focus on South Dakota only.  Given that the poll indicates that freshman Rep. Kristi Noem's race is even closer, maybe there is some buyer's regret going on in that race that is spilling over into the presidential race.
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« Reply #5 on: August 03, 2012, 02:24:51 pm »
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There was a similar poll from August of 2008 or so that had McCain only ahead by a few points. It returned to normal after the Palin pick, but before the Lehman collapse.
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« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2012, 02:40:40 pm »
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Here's an article from the Rapid City Journal lamenting this pollster being "new" in 2010, with the details on several projected races and measures that year. 60% female?

http://www.rapidcityjournal.com/app/blogs/politicalblog/?p=6459
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« Reply #7 on: August 03, 2012, 02:42:37 pm »
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Entered:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4620120723171

Of the four SD polls we have, three are from Nielson Bros.

Back in December they had an R + 20 result, but in February it was down to R + 9.  The only other poll in the database is a PPP poll from January 2011 that was R+6.  South Dakota is typically only a fraction more Democratic than North Dakota, but the polling has been more divergent, but whether Nielson Bros. or DFM Research (which has two of the three ND polls in the database) is at fault, I can't say.
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My ballot:
Haley(R) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
mondale84
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« Reply #8 on: August 03, 2012, 03:08:47 pm »
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Entered:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4620120723171

Of the four SD polls we have, three are from Nielson Bros.

Back in December they had an R + 20 result, but in February it was down to R + 9.  The only other poll in the database is a PPP poll from January 2011 that was R+6.  South Dakota is typically only a fraction more Democratic than North Dakota, but the polling has been more divergent, but whether Nielson Bros. or DFM Research (which has two of the three ND polls in the database) is at fault, I can't say.

I think DFM is a little too favorable to Romney and a little too favorable to Heitkamp. They're probably trying to show that Heitkamp is competitive despite Romney crushing Obama by 19. Anyway, I think Obama is probably down 12 to 15 in North Dakota, 15-18 once the undecideds come in, but not right now.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #9 on: August 03, 2012, 04:02:29 pm »
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Oh believe me...it may be this close here. because a lot of old war vets are supporting Obama over Romney here.
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« Reply #10 on: August 03, 2012, 04:49:05 pm »
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There was a similar poll from August of 2008 or so that had McCain only ahead by a few points. It returned to normal after the Palin pick, but before the Lehman collapse.

That's because undecideds in the Dakotas are undecided about whether or not they'll vote Republican, not about whether they'll vote Republican or Democratic. Romney's obviously going to win here, though Obama will avoid getting blown out the way Kerry and Gore were.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: August 03, 2012, 08:31:33 pm »
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Closer than 2008 in a State in which President Obama hasn't been campaigning. Valid? This state goes to President Obama if Romney collapses.

Neighboring North Dakota is much more R this year because the energy companies are dream employers.
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« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2012, 07:55:40 pm »
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Oh believe me...it may be this close here. because a lot of old war vets are supporting Obama over Romney here.

Really? Why?
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2012, 01:23:12 am »
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Oh believe me...it may be this close here. because a lot of old war vets are supporting Obama over Romney here.

Really? Why?

Romney has laid down quite a few bellicose chickenhawk positions with his foreign policy.  If he were follow through on his rhetoric without moderating after being elected, we could end up fighting several new and unnecessary wars.  Not that I think he would be that dumb, but foreign policy is one area he is reckless, and I fully expect him to lean towards using military options over diplomacy.
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My ballot:
Haley(R) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D/Working Families) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
TBD: Lex 1 School Board
Yes: Am. 1 (allow charity raffles)
No: Am. 2 (end election of the Adj. General)
No: Local Sales Tax
Yes: Temp Beer/Wine Permits
timothyinMD
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2012, 11:27:08 am »
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If Obama is ahead nationally by 11 like Pew said and ahead in swing states like PA, OH and FL by 11, 6 and 6 like Quinnipiac said - then yes - it will be closer.

And if you actually believe that Pew poll is accurate you're delusional
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