The White Vote

[nclib]

Interesting how whites in the Deep South are more Republican than whites in the Rocky Mountain states.

Also surprising how Kerry won the white vote in Minn. and Wash., but not Maryland, N.J., or N.Y.

[nclib]

As far as exit polls by race are concerned, I'm a bit skeptical, because different states show very different results for Hispanics.

[agcatter]

map appears to be about right

[bgwah]

Washington really isn't that surprising.

Compare Seattle with other places that voted over 80% Kerry. They're either very black, a Native American reservation, poor, or at least majority0minority. But then you have a 70% white and wealthy city like Seattle voting 81% Kerry. I live in a rich, white, exurb, and Bush only got 50% of the vote. If it were in the South, it probably would've voted over 80% Bush. Some of the San Juan Islands had Nader get 6 times as many votes as Bush in 2000.

I would bet Oregon whites narrowly voted for Kerry.

[bgwah]

As far as exit polls by race are concerned, I'm a bit skeptical, because different states show very different results for Hispanics.

True, but samples for hispanics are not as large becuase there are less of them and therefore not as accurate.

Also, Cubans generally vote Republican and Mexicans generally vote Democrat, so a state like California where most hispanics are Mexican will have their hispanic population vote Kerry, and a state like Florida with its large Cuban population will have its hispanic population vote Bush.

And also, the reason the white vote in the Rocky Mountain states is so similar to the actual result is....Those states are very very white!! The South has the black vote to bring the total % for Bush. Most Rocky Mountain states are only 1% black, though, and the vast majority of voters are white.

[KEmperor]

Wow

[nick]

Dont let Bush and company get ahold of this.  They will start deporting non-whites... Effective immediatley... just kidding

[Rob]

Here's a map of the white vote in 2000:

[Grad Students are the Worst]

African-Americans


Of the states with significant black populations, all voted >80% except for Oklahoma and Washington.

Latinos


Latinos voted heavily Democrat, except in Georgia, where they voted narrowly Republican; Oklahoma, where they voted Republican in a landslide; and Florida, where they voted Republican by a comfortable margin.

Asians


Asians, who apparently only exist in six states, voted heavily Democratic except in Hawaii (barely Democratic) and Nevada (Republican by a small margin).

Others


The other vote varied from state to state. Based on this, I would guess that this category includes Native Americans, but I have trouble believing they did not vote Democrat in Washington. In Michigan, this may be primarily Arabs.

[bgwah]

^I find it strange that Washington, with its relatively small minority populations, somehow managed to have a sufficient number of minorities respond so it showed up for every category....especially when it would seem other states have more people of a certain ethnicity, yet didn't have enough to have a result? As interesting as these exit polls are, they just can't be very accurate. Oklahoma's hispanics is suspicious...

Other probably includes Native Americans, Pacific Islanders, and maybe people who are mixed race.

[nclib]

I would bet Oregon whites narrowly voted for Kerry.

CNN has it at Bush 50, Kerry 50.

Also NY whites only went for Bush 50-49.

[nclib]

Latinos


Latinos voted heavily Democrat, except in Georgia, where they voted narrowly Republican, and Oklahoma, where they voted Republican in a landslide.

I have FL Hispanics going for Bush by 56-44.

[bgwah]

I would bet Oregon whites narrowly voted for Kerry.

CNN has it at Bush 50, Kerry 50.

Also NY whites only went for Bush 50-49.

So? You don't really think that in real life Bush and Kerry got exactly the same number of white votes in Oregon, do you?

[nclib]

Of course not 'exactly' the same number. But, given the exit poll result, what makes you conclude one direction is more likely than another?

[bgwah]

Of course not 'exactly' the same number. But, given the exit poll result, what makes you conclude one direction is more likely than another?

Cuz I live in the Northwest and overall, whites are liberal.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I believe Kerry did win the white vote in NY, remember exit polls definately aren't 100% accurate and that number is within the margin of error.

Regardless, this once again makes me proud of my state I'd like to see how Minnesota Asians voted, since they're mostly Hmong. I'd guess around 60% Kerry.

[phk]

I think Hmongs would have voted 75-25 Kerry.

[AuH2O]

How many Hmongs voted? Probably not many.

[So the Heroes Fall]

They vote in fairly high numbers here. We even have a Hmong State Rep. and State Sen.

[Rob]

Here's a map for white men:

[phk]

They vote in fairly high numbers here. We even have a Hmong State Rep. and State Sen.

Minnesota's Hmong Population is much more progressive than ours.

[Vasall des Midas]

Hawai'i Others (Native Hawai'ians mostly, also perhaps the large mixed-race population) is interesting.

[London Man]

How did the Jewish vote go?

I can't find exit polls for them on CNN.

[Rob]

Here's yet another map of the 2004 results, this one of white women:

[Vasall des Midas]

That's a really interesting one.