WA-SurveyUSA: Inslee (D) by 3 now among Likely Voters

[Tender Branson]

48-45 Inslee/McKenna

http://www.king5.com/news/up-front/polls/KING-5-poll-Inslee-gains-ground-164955946.html

[bgwah]

Encouraging, but I'll wait until Tuesday to believe it.

Just as a semi-related note, I do think minor candidates will hurt McKenna in the primary more than they hurt Inslee. That alone could give Inslee a first place finish in the primary. The only difference between 1st and 2nd in a top two, of course, is the media buzz. Which Inslee could definitely use.

[greenforest32]

What percentage of the vote was done by mail in Washington's 2008 (gubernatorial) election? Is total turnout going to be higher this time now that it's 100% vote-by-mail?

[bgwah]

What percentage of the vote was done by mail in Washington's 2008 (gubernatorial) election? Is total turnout going to be higher this time now that it's 100% vote-by-mail?

I think every county except Piece was all-mail in 2008, so I doubt it would make much of a difference.

[Alcon]

What percentage of the vote was done by mail in Washington's 2008 (gubernatorial) election? Is total turnout going to be higher this time now that it's 100% vote-by-mail?

I think every county except Piece was all-mail in 2008, so I doubt it would make much of a difference.

I may be wrong, but I thought that King also still had polling places in 2008.

[Dereich]

Encouraging, but I'll wait until Tuesday to believe it.

Just as a semi-related note, I do think minor candidates will hurt McKenna in the primary more than they hurt Inslee. That alone could give Inslee a first place finish in the primary. The only difference between 1st and 2nd in a top two, of course, is the media buzz. Which Inslee could definitely use.

I don't know why you're acting like this is still a race. We all know that Democrats will come home to roost and give Inslee the win. Fools gold for Republicans.

[bgwah]

I wish I shared your optimism.

[krazen1211]

Lean D, at the least. Sorry McKenna.

[AndrewTX]

Is SurveyUSA still a credible source? I haven't seen them do much of anything good since 2005 or so.

[bgwah]

This ended up pretty close to the primary result.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks like the blue tendencies of the Washington electorate are finally starting to suffocate McKenna.

[Meeker]

McKenna had a number of campaign stumbles in July as well. Inslee's ad campaign was easily the biggest factor though.

[sg0508]

7-8 pt democratic win in Nov. Same as always here.  GOP leads over summer, but can't get above 45% and then they either run a bad campaign and/or the democrats come home in the end and that's it.  The fact that WA state elects it's governors in presidential years doesn't help the republicans here at all.

[5280]

I bet if McKenna was running as Republican in CO 2010, he would of probably beat Hickenlooper. I lived in north Seattle for a few years and knew how the 2004 govenor election turned out.

[後援会]

Yeah. McKenna is a goner.

[Seattle]

Yeah. McKenna is a goner.

You guys are all writing this off way too soon. Sure, Mckenna made some silly blunders in July and early August... but once the money starts to pump in, this wont be more than a 4 point race either way.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Yeah. McKenna is a goner.

No he's not.  It's one poll that's a month old and there's still enough time for something to happen.

[sg0508]

Encouraging, but I'll wait until Tuesday to believe it.

Just as a semi-related note, I do think minor candidates will hurt McKenna in the primary more than they hurt Inslee. That alone could give Inslee a first place finish in the primary. The only difference between 1st and 2nd in a top two, of course, is the media buzz. Which Inslee could definitely use.

The presidential year election really hurts the GOP in this state, but they have blown some races with some really bad candidates and/or platforms that are just too conservative for King County and the surrounding burbs, which are becoming bluer every year.

They need a moderate/conservative in there to win. The Nethercutt's, Rossi days won't fly.