Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 01, 2014, 09:15:09 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  General Politics
| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Region of the country that has made the sharpest ideological 180
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Region of the country that has made the sharpest ideological 180  (Read 1323 times)
soniquemd21921
Full Member
***
Posts: 137
United States


View Profile
« on: August 04, 2012, 04:43:42 pm »
Ignore

Santa Cruz County, California must be up there. The opening of UC Santa Cruz in the mid 60s has transformed this traditionally Republican coastal county into one of the most hard-left areas in the country (Angela Davis is a professor at UC Santa Cruz, 'nuff said).

What others would qualify? How about the Black Belt counties of Alabama (for obvious reasons)?
« Last Edit: August 04, 2012, 04:49:21 pm by soniquemd21921 »Logged

E +3.25
S -3.65
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15246
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 4.52

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2012, 06:31:17 pm »
Ignore

How 'bout eastern Oklahoma?

McCain got 67% statewide and won all counties but even when Reagan won the state with 69% in 1984, he list lost 3 eastern counties and was under 60% in most counties in the region.
Until 2004, Democrats performed very well there; Carter, Dukakis, Humphrey and Clinton all won OK-02 by decent margins and it was even Gore's best area. Now, OK-02 is pretty much in sync with the rest of the state, at least at the Presidential level
Logged


soniquemd21921
Full Member
***
Posts: 137
United States


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2012, 07:50:03 pm »
Ignore

I still think Vermont is the most extreme of any state as far as shifts go, but I'm guessing that's more of a partisan shift then a real ideological shift (Vermont was always economically conservative/socially moderate).

Still, I doubt the election of a self-declared socialist to Congress, having several dozen towns pass resolutions calling for the impeachment and/or arrest of the president, or Wal-Mart having a hard time getting stores built in the state would have happened if Vermont was still a Republican-friendly state the way New Hampshire and Maine are.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2012, 07:54:55 pm by soniquemd21921 »Logged

E +3.25
S -3.65
A.G. Snowstalker
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17339
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -8.45, S: -4.26

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2012, 08:18:49 pm »
Ignore

Kansas was a hotbed of abolitionism and the stronghold of the most left-wing party to win electoral votes in American history (the Populists). Same could be said for most of the Great Plains and Mountain West.
Logged


Comrade Lenin cleanses the Earth of filth
R2D2
20RP12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22520
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.09

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2012, 08:22:43 pm »
Ignore

Vermont's good to say. Maybe CA? It was a red state from '48 until '92, with '64 being the only exception.
Logged


i like girls but there is NOTHING better then a sexi hott dude
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13745
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: August 04, 2012, 08:38:13 pm »
Ignore

A lot of those are more party changes than ideological... Places with major demographic shifts like dekalb county GA would certainly qualify. If we're looking for a more ideological shift, northern Idaho is a good candidate. It used to be much more economically left wing.
Logged

soniquemd21921
Full Member
***
Posts: 137
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2012, 08:41:55 pm »
Ignore

The Midwest was apparently a bastion of economic leftism and radical agrarianism in the early 20th century, North Dakota in particular.

It's interesting to note that before WWII the most radical/liberal Republicans in Congress were all from the Midwest and West - e.g. Robert La Follette (Sr. and Jr.), George Norris, William Lemke and Hiram Johnson.

And then there's Utah. Despite its modern-day reputation as a deep red state, it voted for FDR all four times by wide margins.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2012, 08:49:55 pm by soniquemd21921 »Logged

E +3.25
S -3.65
freepcrusher
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2296
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2012, 12:36:51 pm »
Ignore

what about non-Chicago Cook County. It used to be a very conservative area and I think Goldwater actually won the county outside Chicago (including the Collier and Derwinski districts and coming close to winning the Rumsfeld districts). Now the area is democrat across the board with some exceptions in the extreme SW and the panhandle.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13457


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2012, 01:42:38 pm »
Ignore

Santa Cruz County, California must be up there. The opening of UC Santa Cruz in the mid 60s has transformed this traditionally Republican coastal county into one of the most hard-left areas in the country (Angela Davis is a professor at UC Santa Cruz, 'nuff said).

No, a lot of the shift happened because the Republican party went crazy hard right. The university played a role but the trend is seen all over the bay area, and really accelerated with that dumbass Bush. Acting like some sort of uneducated redneck is not going to play well in that part of the country.
Logged
A.G. Snowstalker
Snowstalker
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17339
Cuba


Political Matrix
E: -8.45, S: -4.26

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2012, 02:50:25 pm »
Ignore

Santa Cruz County, California must be up there. The opening of UC Santa Cruz in the mid 60s has transformed this traditionally Republican coastal county into one of the most hard-left areas in the country (Angela Davis is a professor at UC Santa Cruz, 'nuff said).

No, a lot of the shift happened because the Republican party went crazy hard right. The university played a role but the trend is seen all over the bay area, and really accelerated with that dumbass Bush. Acting like some sort of uneducated redneck is not going to play well in that part of the country.

How much can Romney improve in the area? Obviously Obama still wins overwhelmingly.
Logged


Comrade Lenin cleanses the Earth of filth
soniquemd21921
Full Member
***
Posts: 137
United States


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2012, 03:25:23 pm »
Ignore

Goldwater won the Rock and Fox valleys and Chicago suburbs; he topped 60% in Du Page. But by 2004 Bush won Du Page by 55-45 and then four years later it and five other counties in the area voted Democratic for the first time since before the Civil War. Obviously Obama's home state status and the anti-Republican trend that occurred just about everywhere in 2008 pushed Obama over the top, but I don't see McHenry, Kendall, Carroll and Boone voting for Obama a second time considering that he won them by margins of 5 points or less, that they all voted Republican in the 2010 Senate and Governor races by double-digit margins, and voted for Bush in the 57-60% range.

Was 2004 the first time ever that southern Illinois was more Republican than northern Illinois? Even in years of huge Democratic landslides (FDR and LBJ) the Rock and Fox valleys and Chicago suburbs voted Republican by wide margins (Alf Landon got 67% of the vote in Boone), but in 2004 Bush's margin in that region was only slightly above his nationwide average.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2012, 03:40:54 pm by soniquemd21921 »Logged

E +3.25
S -3.65
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13457


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2012, 04:15:15 pm »
Ignore

Santa Cruz County, California must be up there. The opening of UC Santa Cruz in the mid 60s has transformed this traditionally Republican coastal county into one of the most hard-left areas in the country (Angela Davis is a professor at UC Santa Cruz, 'nuff said).

No, a lot of the shift happened because the Republican party went crazy hard right. The university played a role but the trend is seen all over the bay area, and really accelerated with that dumbass Bush. Acting like some sort of uneducated redneck is not going to play well in that part of the country.

How much can Romney improve in the area? Obviously Obama still wins overwhelmingly.

I think there could be a slight trend back in a place like Scott's Valley and there certainly will be in wealthy locations around the bay area but not the bay area as a whole. Actually the bay area as a whole will likely trend towards Obama. Santa Clara county probably has no trend though. Romney could have done better but he had to act like a crazy over the last 5 years to win the nomination....
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27326
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2012, 04:27:12 pm »
Ignore

Santa Cruz County, California must be up there. The opening of UC Santa Cruz in the mid 60s has transformed this traditionally Republican coastal county into one of the most hard-left areas in the country (Angela Davis is a professor at UC Santa Cruz, 'nuff said).

No, a lot of the shift happened because the Republican party went crazy hard right. The university played a role but the trend is seen all over the bay area, and really accelerated with that dumbass Bush. Acting like some sort of uneducated redneck is not going to play well in that part of the country.

Yes, Dubya was toxic for CA Pubs. Beyond Dubya being Dubya, Californians just don't think very highly of Texans in general, and loathe their accent and cultural style as a crude generalization. The accent thing matters. I think that is one reason why Carter did so poorly in CA, and Tunney with his Boston accent went down to Hiyakawa. You may think I'm nutter, but I really believe that.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13457


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2012, 04:42:48 pm »
Ignore

Santa Cruz County, California must be up there. The opening of UC Santa Cruz in the mid 60s has transformed this traditionally Republican coastal county into one of the most hard-left areas in the country (Angela Davis is a professor at UC Santa Cruz, 'nuff said).

No, a lot of the shift happened because the Republican party went crazy hard right. The university played a role but the trend is seen all over the bay area, and really accelerated with that dumbass Bush. Acting like some sort of uneducated redneck is not going to play well in that part of the country.

Yes, Dubya was toxic for CA Pubs. Beyond Dubya being Dubya, Californians just don't think very highly of Texans in general, and loathe their accent and cultural style as a crude generalization. The accent thing matters. I think that is one reason why Carter did so poorly in CA, and Tunney with his Boston accent went down to Hiyakawa. You may think I'm nutter, but I really believe that.

Oh I absolutely believe you. Hey I'm seeing it in action now with the looks I get when I say I live in Tennessee. Tongue
« Last Edit: August 05, 2012, 05:10:18 pm by Senator Sbane »Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12975


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2012, 05:08:26 pm »
Ignore

Santa Cruz County, California must be up there. The opening of UC Santa Cruz in the mid 60s has transformed this traditionally Republican coastal county into one of the most hard-left areas in the country (Angela Davis is a professor at UC Santa Cruz, 'nuff said).

No, a lot of the shift happened because the Republican party went crazy hard right. The university played a role but the trend is seen all over the bay area, and really accelerated with that dumbass Bush. Acting like some sort of uneducated redneck is not going to play well in that part of the country.

Yes, Dubya was toxic for CA Pubs. Beyond Dubya being Dubya, Californians just don't think very highly of Texans in general, and loathe their accent and cultural style as a crude generalization. The accent thing matters. I think that is one reason why Carter did so poorly in CA, and Tunney with his Boston accent went down to Hiyakawa. You may think I'm nutter, but I really believe that.

Oh I absolutely believe you. Hey in seeing it in action now with the looks I get when I say I live in Tennessee. Tongue

Santa Cruz did indeed trend heavily D after the university opened. Many of Santa Cruz's older established families are the core of the R vote in the area.

1960: 39.9%
--Skip 1964--
1965 - University founded
1968: 41.0%
1972: 46.4% (1968 => 1972 should be seen as unprecedented for a positive D trend, and it was probably due to UCSC's student body increasing)

It actually also rejected FDR in 1940 and 1944.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2012, 05:10:31 pm by phk »Logged

Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13457


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: August 05, 2012, 05:12:02 pm »
Ignore

Oh of course Phk, like I said the university played a role. It doesn't come close to explaining the large trend to the dems in the county at large and the bay area.
Logged
soniquemd21921
Full Member
***
Posts: 137
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2012, 05:13:46 pm »
Ignore

How about Tompkins County, New York (Ithaca)? Before the 70s it had the same lopsidedly Republican voting pattern that nearly every other upstate county had (65-75% Republican); even in 1972 with McGovern running Nixon still got 57% of the vote in Tompkins. But over the next few years it swung very hard to the Democrats: Mondale narrowly won it in 1984, and with each subsequent election the Democratic margin got higher and higher. Now Tompkins votes for Democrats by the same margin it voted for Republicans 50 years ago.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2012, 05:17:58 pm by soniquemd21921 »Logged

E +3.25
S -3.65
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27326
United States


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: August 05, 2012, 07:58:38 pm »
Ignore

Oh of course Phk, like I said the university played a role. It doesn't come close to explaining the large trend to the dems in the county at large and the bay area.

Ford carried Washtenaw County, Michigan. Maybe it was due to my voting for Ford in 1976 in that county. Tongue  Ford actually carried the undergraduate dorm precincts.
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3647
Mexico


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: August 05, 2012, 08:04:56 pm »
Ignore

A lot of those are more party changes than ideological... Places with major demographic shifts like dekalb county GA would certainly qualify. If we're looking for a more ideological shift, northern Idaho is a good candidate. It used to be much more economically left wing.

Yep, the loggers and miners either died or left the state and they were replaced with John Birch Society members from the OC. We still received a decent contingent of latte liberals who have made the core of Sandpoint and Coeur d' Alene more prone to voting straight D.
Logged



Economic score: -6.26
Social score: -7.74
patrick1
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7617


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: August 05, 2012, 08:07:19 pm »
Ignore

Oh of course Phk, like I said the university played a role. It doesn't come close to explaining the large trend to the dems in the county at large and the bay area.

Ford carried Washtenaw County, Michigan. Maybe it was due to my voting for Ford in 1976 in that county. Tongue  Ford actually carried the undergraduate dorm precincts.

I think that Ford was an alumni that played football for the Wolverines was maybe slightly a larger reason that Torie's vote:)  Carter was that liberal nor Ford that conservative either.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27326
United States


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: August 05, 2012, 08:20:07 pm »
Ignore

Oh of course Phk, like I said the university played a role. It doesn't come close to explaining the large trend to the dems in the county at large and the bay area.

Ford carried Washtenaw County, Michigan. Maybe it was due to my voting for Ford in 1976 in that county. Tongue  Ford actually carried the undergraduate dorm precincts.

I think that Ford was an alumni that played football for the Wolverines was maybe slightly a larger reason that Torie's vote:)  Carter was that liberal nor Ford that conservative either.

You really know how to hurt a guy!  Smiley
Logged
TheDeadFlagBlues
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3647
Mexico


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: August 05, 2012, 08:39:47 pm »
Ignore

Carter running his campaign on social conservative values made 1976 an anomaly.
Logged



Economic score: -6.26
Social score: -7.74
soniquemd21921
Full Member
***
Posts: 137
United States


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: August 05, 2012, 08:43:16 pm »
Ignore

Oh of course Phk, like I said the university played a role. It doesn't come close to explaining the large trend to the dems in the county at large and the bay area.

Ford carried Washtenaw County, Michigan. Maybe it was due to my voting for Ford in 1976 in that county. Tongue  Ford actually carried the undergraduate dorm precincts.

Washtenaw County was a Republican bastion before the 70s (it voted against FDR all four times). McGovern's narrow victory in Washtenaw was likely due to a high turnout of first-time college voters.

It seems that colleges and the towns they were in had little in common in the pre-26th Amendment era. Oberlin College was a hotbed of leftism long before the Vietnam War, but the village of Oberlin was overwhelmingly Republican well into the 60s.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2012, 08:59:08 pm by soniquemd21921 »Logged

E +3.25
S -3.65
They call me PR
Progressive Realist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5414
United States


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: August 05, 2012, 09:27:47 pm »
Ignore

Berkeley, CA was once a strongly Republican town. Fairly conservative, too.
Logged
old timey villain
cope1989
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1731


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2012, 01:03:18 am »
Ignore

DeKalb county, GA is pretty interesting.

In 1976 it was Carter's worse county, I believe. He won Georgia with 66% yet he only won 56% in Dekalb.

In 2008,  McCain was the guy who won Georgia, with 52% of the vote, yet he only got 20% of the vote in DeKalb that year.

So the county goes from 10 points more R than the state as a whole, to 32 points more D in 30 years. This is pretty much all due to demographics. The county is over 50% black, so the minority voters make it Democratic. Then, the yuppies, college students at Emory, and researchers at the CDC make it liberal as well.
Logged

Can't we all just get along?
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines