It's getting tough to see how Romney wins this thing.

[asexual trans victimologist]

If Ryan can move the needle in WI, CO, OH, IA and VA, Romney can win without FL and PA.

Thing is, I don't think Ryan would be able to do so. Although some of those states are likelier than others.

[Nagas]

If Ryan can move the needle in WI, CO, OH, IA and VA, Romney can win without FL and PA.

Maybe he moves the needle in Wisconsin from lean-Obama to toss-up, but then Romney runs a high risk of losing Florida, which based on polling, Obama has a small but consistent lead.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

If Ryan can move the needle in WI, CO, OH, IA and VA, Romney can win without FL and PA.

Where does NH fit into this calculus? It seems to be one state most neglect to mention, yet it is the easiest path to 270 in the 2-3-1 (It appears Florida is now to be grouped with VA and OH in that).

And how would a situation arise that has Romney in better shape in OH then in FL, regardless of the Veep pick. If you are thinking of sacrificing the seniors as a reasonable swap in a Romney-Ryan scenario then that is a big error that will have serious impacts far beyond Florida, such as the retirement communities in AZ and Colorado, not to mention that many of the rustbelt states you list are older on average then the national average.

There is no Republican victory scenario that works without Florida and if Romney picks Ryan it will be on the belief that he can sell entitlement reform to Florida, successfully. If not it will have failed and Romney will likely lose the election, if he hasn't already in other areas.

[realisticidealist]

Romney's not winning Wisconsin unless he's already over 300 EV, Ryan or not.

[Supersonic]

If everything continues on as present economic wise, then yes, I believe that the President is odds-on to win, 303-235 electoral votes. However, nothing is that simple and we simply don't know what is going to happen between now and November. Most Americans except politicos are not paying attention, we still have to wait for Romney's VP choice and there are multiple jobs reports due out soon.

While today we can find it difficult for Mitt to win, next month the situation could have reversed entirely and we could find it hard for the President to win. Not to mention we could have an 'October Surprise'.

[For Oklahoma]

How's polling in VA?

[realisticidealist]

How's polling in VA?

Believe it or not, we have that kind of stuff on this site.

[For Oklahoma]

How's polling in VA?

Believe it or not, we have that kind of stuff on this site.

Ohoho I know I was asking someone to link me? Ohoho?

[Mr. Morden]

How much of the disconnect between national and state polling is just an artifact of different pollsters polling statewide vs. nationally?  Both Gallup and Rasmussen are doing daily national trackers, right?  And both of them have been more Romney-friendly this cycle.  Whereas, statewide, you have pollsters like PPP, which have leaned more towards Obama.

[Likely Voter]

If Ryan can move the needle in WI, CO, OH, IA and VA, Romney can win without FL and PA.

And for his next trick he is going to develop cold fusion and cure cancer?

[Lief]

Ryan will definitely move the needle... towards Obama in Florida.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

If Romney picks Ryan, many celebratory brews will be drank instantly. That would give Obama a lock on the presidency.

[asexual trans victimologist]

If Romney picks Ryan, many celebratory brews will be drank instantly. That would give Obama a lock on the presidency.

No more of a lock than he has now.

That being said, not much less of a lock either. My main concern is that of having to deal with Paul Ryan constantly in the news for three to (God forbid) a hundred and one months, not that he'll be the boon to the Romney campaign that a lot of people on that side seem to be expecting.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

If Romney picks Ryan, many celebratory brews will be drank instantly. That would give Obama a lock on the presidency.

No more of a lock than he has now.

That being said, not much less of a lock either. My main concern is that of having to deal with Paul Ryan constantly in the news for three to (God forbid) ninety-nine months, not that he'll be the boon to the Romney campaign that a lot of people on that side seem to be expecting.

Ryan gave us Hochul and the biggest lead over Republicans on the Generic Ballot since early 2009. He's a walking disaster who would remind everybody that Republicans are out for gutting Medicare to give the wealthy tax cuts. He's smarmy and only has fairly net neutral ratings because people don't associate his plan with him yet.

[Vosem]

Ryan will definitely move the needle... towards Obama in Florida.

Doubtful. Most people haven't heard of Ryan and Romney is going to have way more money than Obama after the conventions -- if Ryan is picked, he will be able to positively define Ryan. Polling, I believe, has shown Ryan has no immediate effect outside of Wisconsin, where Romney will enjoy a significant bump.

In any case, it's still rather easy for me to see how Romney wins. The things that would cause a bump in Obama's polling numbers are all very unlikely (sudden economic recovery; severe terrorist attack). The things that would cause bumps in Romney's polling are either rather likely (Obama significantly outspent) or at least possible (bad economic news, Europe shenanigans). To win, Obama has to make sure things don't get appreciably worse and make sure Romney doesn't outspend him by too much. Both will be difficult, but doable.

If Romney picks Ryan, many celebratory brews will be drank instantly. That would give Obama a lock on the presidency.

Lol, no.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why in the world would Ryan be a good pick? He tanked the party, caused an electoral disaster to the point where most presidential candidates distanced themselves from him. The Beltway might adore him but the public despised what he stood for and it showed. There's a reason why Republicans have shifted pretty significantly from his plan on Medicare...

Romney needs to go for a stronger and relatively unknown conservative star pick (aka a Palin without her baggage) who doesn't have the electoral record to do anything damaging but also has potential. All of the suggestions have been bland dogmatists and inoffensive mainstreamers outside of Rubio. Go for the gold, Romney.

[asexual trans victimologist]

Why in the world would Ryan be a good pick? He tanked the party, caused an electoral disaster to the point where most presidential candidates distanced themselves from him. The Beltway might adore him but the public despised what he stood for and it showed. There's a reason why Republicans have shifted pretty significantly from his plan on Medicare...

PR and spin and soft-focus coverage can and have changed views on people like this in the past, but I have doubts that that will be the case for him. He's apparently very likable on a personal level, but, then again, so is Biden.

______

See, this whole disconnect on the subject of Ryan is why I'm coming to the conclusion that his function if he is selected will be to further entrench existing divisions, cast them in sharper relief, and fire up base voters (everybody's base voters, actually) rather than to create any new Terminus Est for the campaign. He will, granted, do so in a potentially much more interesting way than Pawlenty or Portman.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Why in the world would Ryan be a good pick? He tanked the party, caused an electoral disaster to the point where most presidential candidates distanced themselves from him. The Beltway might adore him but the public despised what he stood for and it showed. There's a reason why Republicans have shifted pretty significantly from his plan on Medicare...

PR and spin and soft-focus coverage can and have changed views on people like this in the past, but I have doubts that that will be the case for him. He's apparently very likable on a personal level, but, then again, so is Biden.

White awkward guy/White awkward guy 2012 is not a good ticket for all of the obvious reasons, even if Ryan's negatives are softened with a protracted media campaign. Perhaps I'm too optimistic and give the Obama team too much credit but that ticket would be the equivalent of giving Barry Bonds a t'd up ball to knock out of the park.

I don't think Democrats really focused on Ryan that much outside of using his name to describe the plan so that could explain the decent favorables. He does have this way of sounding more level-headed and moderate than he actually is but this ability would be destroyed with proper scrutiny because he pulls it off by evading the question.

[krazen1211]

Why in the world would Ryan be a good pick? He tanked the party, caused an electoral disaster to the point where most presidential candidates distanced themselves from him. The Beltway might adore him but the public despised what he stood for and it showed. There's a reason why Republicans have shifted pretty significantly from his plan on Medicare...

PR and spin and soft-focus coverage can and have changed views on people like this in the past, but I have doubts that that will be the case for him. He's apparently very likable on a personal level, but, then again, so is Biden.

______

See, this whole disconnect on the subject of Ryan is why I'm coming to the conclusion that his function if he is selected will be to further entrench existing divisions, cast them in sharper relief, and fire up base voters (everybody's base voters, actually) rather than to create any new Terminus Est for the campaign. He will, granted, do so in a potentially much more interesting way than Pawlenty or Portman.

The Republican base is larger than the Democratic base in enough states for that to suffice. Certainly if a man of the people like Scott Walker can get 97-98% of the Republican vote Romney can set that as a target.

[asexual trans victimologist]

I don't even know where to begin attempting to deconstruct those two sentences, so I'll just state for the record that Scott Walker is a man of some people, not the collective People.

[opebo]

My prediction:



Filled in:



Obama - 276
Romney - 262

Well, you're definitely on Mars about Nevada there.. but otherwise it isn't terrible.