It's getting tough to see how Romney wins this thing.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

Even if it ends up closer than '08, which it looks like it might be (and that in itself is sort of interesting from a historical perspective), it's probably not going to be very close. This article does a well enough job of pointing out what should be obvious:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/04/michael-tomasky-on-the-possible-coming-obama-landslide.html

We must remember that Obama can lose Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia and still win... and it's getting more and more difficult to imagine him losing ALL of those states in the first place.

Romney needs a game-changer. The map just sucks for him.

[Lіef]

I'm not really sure why the map sucks for him either. The reason the map sucked for McCain in October, for instance, was become Obama was leading nationally by 7 or 8 points. But if you trust national polling, Obama seems to be ahead by 1-2% at best. And yet the map looks like this right now:



And I'm being generous by not giving Obama Ohio, where he has consistently led Mittens. Is Mitt Romney just annihilating Obama in the South or something?

[asexual trans victimologist]

The South and the Mormon Triangle, yeah. And he is, in fact, doing better than many Republicans would in some more 'upmarket' Democratic areas, just not nearly enough to actually win those states. Relatively speaking, Obama is stronger in swing states, collectively, than either set of reliably partisan ones.

[Lіef]

The South and the Mormon Triangle, yeah. And he is, in fact, doing better than many Republicans would in some more 'upmarket' Democratic areas, just not nearly enough to actually win those states. Relatively speaking, Obama is stronger in swing states, collectively, than either set of reliably partisan ones.

Ah, that's true, he's probably doing decently (but still not well enough to win) in Connecticut and New Jersey and probably even California.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I suspect Obama's national lead is probably more like 3% (maybe even 4%) but yeah, Romney seems to be in relatively unenviable shape in most of the important "battleground" states.

[Gravis Marketing]

I'd like to be this optimistic, but we have to get past the conventions where a good show by Romney could put him right back into the game.

[Harry]

Shhh... don't you know Romney is going to win in a landslide?  That's what most blue avatars here will tell you...

[豚FLY]

Shhh... don't you know Romney is going to win in a landslide?  That's what most blue avatars here will tell you...

Really?
Other than WhyteRain (who is banned) and Winfield (who is... something else), I haven't seen anyone say this.

[opebo]

A narrow win is very possible for him if the Wisconsin story plays out some Repbulicans seem to be suggesting.  IA/WI/CO would do it, or IA/WI/OH. 

[krazen1211]

Clearly Tomasky has not looked at recent Iowa polls, except for PPP and who cares about that?

In the last month the GOP continued to gain more votes in registration than the Democrats. The lead is nearly 22,000 now.

Which of these are not like the others?

PPP (D)   7/12 - 7/15   1131 RV   48   43   Obama +5
WeAskAmerica   6/18 - 6/18   1086 LV   45   44   Obama +1
Rasmussen Reports   6/11 - 6/11   500 LV   46   47   Romney +1
NBC News/Marist   5/22 - 5/24   1106 RV   44   44   Tie
PPP (D)   5/3 - 5/6   1181 RV   51   41   Obama +10
Des Moines Register   2/12 - 2/15   611 LV   44   46   Romney +2

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I think there are a fair few Republicans on here who believe Obama will win. I'm one of them. The optimist in me works out combinations for Romney to win, but I still don't see it happening. It's a big damn shame.

Still, I think it will be extremely closer than most of the red avatar folks think, and unlike 2008, the Republican actually has a real shot.

[Pacific Councillor Big Wiggly Style]

This seems most likely at this point. If Obama wins any of the three tossup states in this scenario, he wins the election.

Obama - 262
Romney - 235
Tossup - 41

[Stranger in a strange land]

The South and the Mormon Triangle, yeah. And he is, in fact, doing better than many Republicans would in some more 'upmarket' Democratic areas, just not nearly enough to actually win those states. Relatively speaking, Obama is stronger in swing states, collectively, than either set of reliably partisan ones.

Ah, that's true, he's probably doing decently (but still not well enough to win) in Connecticut and New Jersey and probably even California.

Romney will do better in Suburban areas that Republicans used to win but no longer do, but not by enough to make a difference in the EV tally. He's certain to improve on McCain's performance in NJ and CT, but to have a shot at winning either, he'd have to buy ads in the very expensive New York media market, which he simply isnt going to do. He's also likely to improve in Southern California, especially in Orange County and similar areas, but not by anywhere near enough to have a shot at winning the state. He'll also improve in the South and the Mormon Triangle, but those are states he'll win just by having an R next to his name.

[Likely Voter]

Obama's lead is based on a general national lead of around 2.5% so yes if things stay the same, Obama will win with probably over 300 EVs. So from this point out Obama can win by just continuing to make it a draw with Romney (such as even boosts from conventions and even boosts from debates). So the onus is on Romney to put some points on the board. But Romney has plenty of time to do exactly that

Firstly there are two things that can help Romney, but are out of his control
- Economy slows more/unemployment goes to 8.5%+
- Obama says some new bad gaffe (ala "voted for it before against it")

Then there are a few things he can do which could move the needle...
- find a VP that gives him a demographic/geographic and/or idealogical bump
- A new damaging attack against Obama is found (ala Swift Boat) [maybe from 3rd party group]
- GOP convention nets more bump than DNC and successfully humanizes Romney, reversing his neg personal rating
- Romney (and VP) emerge as net winner of debate season, especially first Obama/Romney domestic debate
- Campaign gets significant boost from better GOTV effort (helped by Voter ID laws hurting dems)

Romney doesn't need to do all of that, but if 2-4 things go his way between now and the election and he has it. The problem is that he must net out more wins between now and the election while avoiding his own gaffes and deflecting any new attacks from the Obama camp.

  

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I also believe there's a real danger of Obama's attacks becoming really transparent to the average voter.

[opebo]

This seems most likely at this point. If Obama wins any of the three tossup states in this scenario, he wins the election.

Obama - 262
Romney - 235
Tossup - 41

That looks alright but it is perfectly possible that Iowa and Colorado could go for Romney too.

[Lіef]

This seems most likely at this point. If Obama wins any of the three tossup states in this scenario, he wins the election.

Obama - 262
Romney - 235
Tossup - 41

No idea why you're giving Florida to Romney. Everyone but Purple Strategies, which is a completely unproven poll with no track record, is showing Obama ahead there.

[Governor Maxwell]

by the RCP averages, New Hampshire (Obama up only 3, probably within the average polls margin of error) is more liable to swing than Wisconsin (Obama up by 6).

[asexual trans victimologist]

There's considerable talk about an inexplicably popular (among Republicans) politician from Wisconsin being the Vice-Presidential nominee.

[Pacific Councillor Big Wiggly Style]

My prediction:



Filled in:



Obama - 276
Romney - 262

[Governor Maxwell]

There's considerable talk about an inexplicably popular (among Republicans) politician from Wisconsin being the Vice-Presidential nominee.

I don't think Paul Ryan is enough to switch it, but maybe.

[asexual trans victimologist]

There's considerable talk about an inexplicably popular (among Republicans) politician from Wisconsin being the Vice-Presidential nominee.

I don't think Paul Ryan is enough to switch it, but maybe.

I don't think Paul Ryan is enough to switch much of anything, but apparently some Republicans do.

(I do, on an objective, clinical basis, understand Ryan's appeal. I just don't feel it, at all, whereas I do to some minor extent with certain other conservative starlets.)

[ajc0918]

Shhh... don't you know Romney is going to win in a landslide?  That's what most blue avatars here will tell you...

Really?
Other than WhyteRain (who is banned) and Winfield (who is... something else), I haven't seen anyone say this.

WhyteRain got banned? LOL For what?
(sorry for being off topic)

[Pacific Councillor Big Wiggly Style]

If Ryan can move the needle in WI, CO, OH, IA and VA, Romney can win without FL and PA.

[Comrade Funk]

If Ryan can move the needle in WI, CO, OH, IA and VA, Romney can win without FL and PA.

That's asking a lot for a guy, considering all those states are lean Obama atm.