Does Romney Get A Post-Convention Bounce
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  Does Romney Get A Post-Convention Bounce
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Poll
Question: Does Romney-Ryan Get A Bump?
#1
No, This Is Kerry-Edwards 2.0
 
#2
Yes, Everyone Does
 
#3
No, And Neither Does Obama
 
#4
Maybe, If Ron Paul Says So
 
#5
No, Obama Kills His Bump With The DNC
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 43

Author Topic: Does Romney Get A Post-Convention Bounce  (Read 1067 times)
Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« on: August 16, 2012, 05:34:09 PM »

In 2004, John Kerry chose John Edwards as his running mate two weeks before his nominating convention. The Kerry-Edwards ticket got an immediate bounce in the polls (4-5 points according to RCP). But an anomaly happened at the closing of their convention. He didn't get a bounce.
In 2008, John McCain announced Sarah Palin as his running mate 3 days before the RNC and got a huge polling bounce. The same with aobama naming Biden a few days before his convention and getting a bounce.
This year, The Rominee has chosen Paul Ryan as his running-mate, two weeks before the RNC and has only gotten, according to Nate Silver, a 1 point bounce. The early choice, coupled with the DNC 3 or 4 days immediately following the RNC, could smother any bounce Romney would get.
So, does he get a bounce?
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2012, 05:35:58 PM »

I don't think so, because of the DNC right after that, and as i have mentioned before, Obama may not get one, either because of the August Jobs Report.

Neither candidate gets much of a bounce, IMO.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2 on: August 16, 2012, 05:43:40 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if the Romney campaign had previously contemplated this action, knowing that the combined VP announcement/RNC convention being close to one another would give a bigger bump than announcing the VP so early. The only calculation I would make from that is that the campaign felt that they couldn't take another 2-3 weeks of slipping in the polls, regardless of how big that bump might be. That and the no-guarantee of any bump due to the DNC convention immediately afterwards.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2012, 05:45:27 PM »

Yes, of course he does.  Nearly every presidential candidate does.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2012, 07:02:02 PM »

yeah cause Kerry talked about Vietnam the whole time.  downer
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The Mikado
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« Reply #5 on: August 16, 2012, 07:04:26 PM »

I fully expect Romney to be polling 2-3 points ahead of Obama in the post-convention polls.

Complete with the Romney hacks here posting "Wrap it up, Obamailures" and posting maps showing New Jersey and Oregon going GOP.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #6 on: August 16, 2012, 07:06:14 PM »

I fully expect Romney to be polling 2-3 points ahead of Obama in the post-convention polls.

Complete with the Romney hacks here posting "Wrap it up, Obamailures" and posting maps showing New Jersey and Oregon New York and Massachusetts going GOP.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #7 on: August 16, 2012, 07:13:44 PM »

I fully expect Romney to be polling 2-3 points ahead of Obama in the post-convention polls.

Complete with the Romney hacks here posting "Wrap it up, Obamailures" and posting maps showing New Jersey and Oregon New York and Massachusetts every state except DC and Minnesota going GOP.

My answer is two-fold:

1. Yes.

2. Who cares! I recall like a day after Obama's DNC convention, polls came out showing no bounce and CNN put "NO BOUNCE" on their front page - as if it freakin' mattered in the grand scheme of things. Then the next day, low and behold, polls came in showing movement. It just seems like another frivolity for the media to talk about when they should be doing more serious reporting. Remember that polls tell you only some much - instead of obsessing over a single day's data point, we should keep our eye on the long term trend.
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cavalcade
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« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2012, 07:19:32 PM »

If there is one, it won't be permanent (just like Obama's won't be permanent), so it doesn't really matter if there is one or not.

My guess is that since Ryan has only been 1-2 points a temporary convention bounce would only extend the Ryan bounce into a convention bounce, or maybe tack on another point.  So maybe up 3 or maybe 4 in Gallup at his peak, and up about 5 in Rasmussen.  Which, yes, will result in some tossup-y looking polls in places like PA and maybe MI.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #9 on: August 16, 2012, 07:43:07 PM »

Yes, but no more than 2-3 points.
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pepper11
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« Reply #10 on: August 16, 2012, 08:03:31 PM »

I don't think so, because of the DNC right after that, and as i have mentioned before, Obama may not get one, either because of the August Jobs Report.

Neither candidate gets much of a bounce, IMO.

It was silly to time Obama's speech to coincide with the August jobs report. If its bad, it overshaddows the speech and if its good it could get drown out by the speech. Silly season over there at the DNC.
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Politico
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« Reply #11 on: August 16, 2012, 08:34:11 PM »
« Edited: August 16, 2012, 08:39:24 PM by Politico »

If anything, the nation will be seriously fatigued by the time the DNC rolls around, especially since the economy is in the doldrums and Obama/Biden are old news (they are wearing out their welcome with all of this negativity, divisiveness and rehashing of tired, failed ideas).

I suspect Romney will get a bounce of a point or two, but who knows? I would bet against Obama getting a significant bounce, especially with the jobs report coming out the morning after his speech. 500,000 new jobs are not going to appear out of the blue. It's a weak recovery, and that is not going to change anytime soon.

The conventions will not matter much. The debates are the real showtime.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #12 on: August 16, 2012, 09:01:36 PM »

If Ron Paul is a successful troll then no.
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PittsburghSean
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« Reply #13 on: August 16, 2012, 09:02:56 PM »

He'll get a bounce cause they always do.
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5280
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« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2012, 02:02:28 AM »

They usually all get a bounce, much like a caffeine boost of coffee in the morning.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2012, 02:04:50 AM »

He'll get a bounce showing him ahead about 4 to 5 points, but it'll fade to a smaller lead after that.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2012, 03:15:21 AM »

I think both could be significant. They usually aren't small bounces, they're actually big bounces.

Humphrey 1968 - 4 point bounce
McGovern 1972 -3 point loss
Carter 1980 - 17 point bounce
Mondale 1984 - 16 point bounce
Bush 1988 - 11 point bounce
Bush 1992 - 16 point bounce
Clinton 1992 - 30 point bounce
Kerry 2004 - -8 point loss

Don't be surprised to see both Obama and Romney +10 against eachother following the conventions.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2012, 03:49:26 AM »

I guess he'll probably lead in the polls until Obama gets his bounce.
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change08
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« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2012, 07:05:10 AM »

A tiny one by historic standards. Ryan will outshine Mitt just as Palin outshone John McCain.

The Dems going second this time will mean Obama will blow them out the water when it's compared to Romney's snooze fest. Between Obama, Biden, the Clinton etc, the DNC will just look like the natural party of government. It'll just feel right.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2012, 07:08:11 AM »

They usually all get a bounce, much like a caffeine boost of coffee in the morning.

good analogy +1
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2012, 07:21:34 AM »

Yeah, it won't last though. Obama is going to destroy him with slander, and since people vote based on personality he'll have no chance. Romney will have to get just as vicious, but if his track record is any indication that won't be happening.
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change08
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« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2012, 07:22:19 AM »

Yeah, it won't last though. Obama is going to destroy him with slander, and since people vote based on personality he'll have no chance. Romney will have to get just as vicious, but if his track record is any indication that won't be happening.

When he tries vicious he just ends up making another gaffe.
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