Corby by-election

[Sibboleth]

For reference, all General Election results for the Corby constituency ever:

2010: Con 42.2, Labour 38.6, LDem 14.5, BNP 4.7
2005: Labour 43.1, Con 40.0, LDem 12.7, UKIP 2.6, SLP 1.0, Ind 0.5
2001: Labour 49.3, Con 37.2, LDem 10.1, UKIP 1.8, SLP 1.6
1997: Labour 55.4, Con 33.4, LDem 7.5, RP 2.5, UKIP 0.9, NLP 0.3
1992: Con 44.5, Labour 43.9, LDem 10.2, Lib 1.4
1987: Con 44.3, Labour 40.9, Lib 14.8
1983: Con 42.6, Labour 36.1, Lib 20.3, EP 1.0

[ObserverIE]

For reference, all General Election results for the Corby constituency ever:

2010: Con 42.2, Labour 38.6, LDem 14.5, BNP 4.7
2005: Labour 43.1, Con 40.0, LDem 12.7, UKIP 2.6, SLP 1.0, Ind 0.5
2001: Labour 49.3, Con 37.2, LDem 10.1, UKIP 1.8, SLP 1.6
1997: Labour 55.4, Con 33.4, LDem 7.5, RP 2.5, UKIP 0.9, NLP 0.3
1992: Con 44.5, Labour 43.9, LDem 10.2, Lib 1.4
1987: Con 44.3, Labour 40.9, Lib 14.8
1983: Con 42.6, Labour 36.1, Lib 20.3, EP 1.0

1979: Labour 44.3, Con 43.5, Lib 11.8, Oth 0.4

http://www.election.demon.co.uk/notional79.html

[Leftbehind]

I'm just looking at a history of recent by-election polling. Ashcroft's Feltham and Heston poll was surprisingly accurate; within a couple of points of both the Labour and Tory percentages. Survation will probably release a poll at some point too. They were even more accurate in Feltham and Heston; they understated Labour and overstated the Tories each by a single point.

But yeah, quite a lot of by-election polls have been....well, pretty ghastly. Probably most notably the two polls for Glasgow East in 2008 - they both predicted an easy Labour hold.

For posterity:

Oldham East & Saddleworth
ICM         Lab 44%, Lib 27%, Con 18%
Populus     Lab 46%, Lib 29%, Con 15%
Survation   Lab 41%, Lib 40%, Con 8%
Actual      Lab 42%, Lib 32%, Con 13%

Barnsley Central
Survation   Lab 63%, Con 13%, UKIP 9%, Lib 6%, BNP 4%
Actual      Lab 61%, UKIP 12%, Con 8%, BNP 6%, Lib 4%,

Leicester South
Survation   Lab 61%, Con 20%, Lib 14%, UKIP 5%
Actual      Lab 58%, Lib 22%, Con 15%, UKIP 3%

Feltham & Heston
Populus     Lab 52%, Con 30%, Lib 10%
Survation   Lab 53%, Con 29%, Lib 7%, UKIP 7%
Actual      Lab 54%, Con 28%, Lib 6%, UKIP 5%

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Leicester South
Survation   Lab 61%, Con 20%, Lib 14%, UKIP 5%
Actual      Lab 58%, Lib 22%, Con 15%, UKIP 3%

Not very often do the Lib Dems get underestimated by an opinion poll.

[You kip if you want to...]

A 5 point drop in Corby during a by-election wouldn't be too problematic for the Tories.

I agree.

In fact, the Conservative vote has held up stronger than I expected. It's definitely helpful that UKIP isn't standing.

And if the Tories drop 5% nationally? Not a problem?

[Vasall des Midas]

Looks like expectations have shifted a bit.

This poll is scarily like what I'd've imagined the results of this by-election to be before seeing the poll and the pre 2010 election results (well, seeing again in the case of the 92-05 ones, technically).

[Supersonic]

A 5 point drop in Corby during a by-election wouldn't be too problematic for the Tories.

I agree.

In fact, the Conservative vote has held up stronger than I expected. It's definitely helpful that UKIP isn't standing.

And if the Tories drop 5% nationally? Not a problem?

Not really, no. Although I'd prefer our polling numbers to be higher.

Governments are rarely popular and often suffer low polling numbers after their honeymoon period, however by election month, the polls often narrow quickly as the decision between a 'protest' vote for the Opposition and actually electing a government are different. If we were 5% behind come April 2015 (or whenever the election is), then I would be sh*tting it, to be blunt.

P.S. I presume you are talking about polling, lol.

[You kip if you want to...]

A 5 point drop in Corby during a by-election wouldn't be too problematic for the Tories.

I agree.

In fact, the Conservative vote has held up stronger than I expected. It's definitely helpful that UKIP isn't standing.

And if the Tories drop 5% nationally? Not a problem?

Not really, no. Although I'd prefer our polling numbers to be higher.

Governments are rarely popular and often suffer low polling numbers after their honeymoon period, however by election month, the polls often narrow quickly as the decision between a 'protest' vote for the Opposition and actually electing a government are different. If we were 5% behind come April 2015 (or whenever the election is), then I would be sh*tting it, to be blunt.

P.S. I presume you are talking about polling, lol.

I meant as an actual general election result

[Supersonic]

A 5 point drop in Corby during a by-election wouldn't be too problematic for the Tories.

I agree.

In fact, the Conservative vote has held up stronger than I expected. It's definitely helpful that UKIP isn't standing.

And if the Tories drop 5% nationally? Not a problem?

Not really, no. Although I'd prefer our polling numbers to be higher.

Governments are rarely popular and often suffer low polling numbers after their honeymoon period, however by election month, the polls often narrow quickly as the decision between a 'protest' vote for the Opposition and actually electing a government are different. If we were 5% behind come April 2015 (or whenever the election is), then I would be sh*tting it, to be blunt.

P.S. I presume you are talking about polling, lol.

I meant as an actual general election result

Oh, Fail. Haha.

[YL]

Update.

Louise Mensch has now officially resigned been appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, vacating the seat.

Various parties have candidates.  The Tory candidate is not, in spite of rumours spread by a certain publicity seeking right-wing blogger, the recently retired England cricket captain Andrew Strauss.  From Wikipedia, the list is

Christine Emmett (Con)
Jill Hope (Lib Dem)
Lord Toby Jug (OMRLP)
Margot Parker (UKIP)
Andy Sawford (Lab)
David Wickham (English Democrats)

The Tory candidate is a councillor in Rutland, not very far away, but was quoted as referring to the constituency as "Corby and North East Hants".  Oops.

[Vasall des Midas]

North East Hants, East Northants, where's the difference? (Of course, the constituency isn't named Corby & East Northants either, but it might as well be, so that bit's fine really.)

[Sibboleth]

I'm a little surprised that said publicity seeking right-wing blogger put that one about; most cricketers are rather nerdish about the history of the sport, which means they all know about Ted Dexter and his ill-advised run against Callaghan in '64.

[Sibboleth]

Anyways, Andy Sawford is the son of Phil Sawford (Labour MP for Kettering 1997-2005). I presume from his CV that he's not as left-wing as his dad, but that kind of thing can be deceptive.

[YL]

That provisional list of candidates has doubled in size in the last few days.  The additions are (again based on the Wikipedia page):

- James Delingpole, climate change denying right-wing journalist, standing as an Independent campaigning against wind farms.  I'm not sure I see the point of the OMRLP candidacy any more.
- Adam Lotun, a disabled rights campaigner, supported by a number of campaign groups including UKUncut.
- Peter Reynolds, Cannabis Law Reform.
- a BNP candidate
- Rohen Kapur, Young People's Party, whoever they are.  Stood as an Independent in Hornsey & Wood Green in 2010 and got 91 votes.  From his blog it seems he doesn't like Mitt Romney or the Labour Party very much.
- Christopher Scotton, United People's Party (who are also supposedly standing in Manchester Central - edit: actually it seems that they have disowned their candidate there)

[Leftbehind]

Anyways, Andy Sawford is the son of Phil Sawford (Labour MP for Kettering 1997-2005). I presume from his CV that he's not as left-wing as his dad, but that kind of thing can be deceptive.

All too deceptive. It's frustrating how clandestine general political stances are kept. Reading their leaflets makes little difference, either. 

[doktorb]

Alan Valentine is still the UPP candidate (or so he seems to think) - http://www.facebook.com/pages/Manchester-Central-Perspective-Parliamentary-Candidate-Alan-Valentine/419463811423219

http://alanvalentine.vpweb.co.uk/


However, his Facebook page had to be 'locked down' after someone spotted something very, er interesting.......

[Χahar]

I'm a little surprised that said publicity seeking right-wing blogger put that one about; most cricketers are rather nerdish about the history of the sport, which means they all know about Ted Dexter and his ill-advised run against Callaghan in '64.

What was the story there? It's the first I've heard of it.

[Sibboleth]

What was the story there? It's the first I've heard of it.

Callaghan's majority in Cardiff South East fell under 1,000 votes in 1959 and local Tories thought he might be vulnerable next time round. So in 1964 Ted Dexter was drafted in as a star candidate; the theory was that his celebrity status would negate the national swing to Labour. His campaign was a trainwreck of epic proportions; amongst other things he seriously suggested to an audience made up mostly of dockers and steelworkers that they ought to consider sending their children to Eton. Callaghan increased his majority to just under 8,000.

[YL]

Guardian article on the by-election

I presume the Ashcroft poll referred to is the one from August.

[You kip if you want to...]

Ashcroft's about to release a poll showing Labour 22-points clear. Wow.

[YL]

Ashcroft's about to release a poll showing Labour 22-points clear. Wow.

Lab 54 Con 32 LD 5 Others 8.  Details here

I don't know what the track record of Ashcroft's polls is like.  They presumably ought to be thought of in the same way as Tory internals, even though they don't always give good news for the party.

[YL]

Delingpole withdrew, depriving us of some amusement at him losing his deposit.

There are 14 candidates:
David Bishop (Elvis Loves Pets Party) [1]
Christine Emmett (Con)
Ian Gillman (Independent)
Jill Hope (Lib Dem)
Jonathan Hornett (Green)
Rohen Kapur (Young People's Party)
Adam Lotun (Democracy 2015)
Mr Mozzarella (Independent) (sic) [2]
Margot Parker (UKIP)
Peter Reynolds (Cannabis Law Reform)
Gordon Riddell (BNP)
Andy Sawford (Lab)
Chris Scotton (United People's Party)
David Wickham (English Democrats)

http://www.east-northamptonshire.gov.uk/downloads/SOPN_Corby.pdf

[1] registered description of the Church of the Militant Elvis
[2] http://dontcookparty.org/our-man-for-corby/

[Andrew1]

Given that their biggest success on Nov. 15th is likely to be in Corby, it's a bit embarrassing for Labour that their candidate for Northants Police Commissioner has had to withdraw. But then interest in the commissioner election is so low that probably no-one will notice.

[Vasall des Midas]

Given that their biggest success on Nov. 15th is likely to be in Corby, it's a bit embarrassing for Labour that their candidate for Northants Police Commissioner has had to withdraw. But then interest in the commissioner election is so low that probably no-one will notice.

What happens when he wins - as with differential turnout he well might?

[Sibboleth]

Given that their biggest success on Nov. 15th is likely to be in Corby, it's a bit embarrassing for Labour that their candidate for Northants Police Commissioner has had to withdraw. But then interest in the commissioner election is so low that probably no-one will notice.

What happens when he wins - as with differential turnout he well might?

By-election