Corby by-election

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Saw this on Twitter this morning. It's quite shocking she's going to be honest, if anyone was going to jump ship, I didn't think it'd be her. She had cabinet speculation brewing behind her, sure, but I guess she saw the writing on the wall with Corby being a marginal. I'll almost miss loony Louise.

Anyway, Labour gain, nothing to see here.

Some trivia from Political Scrapbook about Parliament's most self-serving freshman:

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If we lose this, we may as well disband with immediate effect.

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It seems our requests for a more competitive by-election were answered. With Liberal support being the bedrock for most of Labour's resurgence, yet confined to the early teens in this constituency, it'll be instructive seeing how large Labour's swing is.

Even then, as noted above, Corby's very polarised. I wouldn't expect a massive swing, but a decent one.

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UKIP will get around 5%, the Lib Dems will probably come sixth or so. The usual.

Come on, be generous. There might only be 5 candidates.

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A 5 point drop in Corby during a by-election wouldn't be too problematic for the Tories.

I agree.

In fact, the Conservative vote has held up stronger than I expected. It's definitely helpful that UKIP isn't standing.

And if the Tories drop 5% nationally? Not a problem?

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A 5 point drop in Corby during a by-election wouldn't be too problematic for the Tories.

I agree.

In fact, the Conservative vote has held up stronger than I expected. It's definitely helpful that UKIP isn't standing.

And if the Tories drop 5% nationally? Not a problem?

Not really, no. Although I'd prefer our polling numbers to be higher.

Governments are rarely popular and often suffer low polling numbers after their honeymoon period, however by election month, the polls often narrow quickly as the decision between a 'protest' vote for the Opposition and actually electing a government are different. If we were 5% behind come April 2015 (or whenever the election is), then I would be sh*tting it, to be blunt.

P.S. I presume you are talking about polling, lol.

I meant as an actual general election result

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Ashcroft's about to release a poll showing Labour 22-points clear. Wow.

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Latest from the Grauniad:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/nov/08/labour-corby-voters-louise-mensch

There's also a ComRes poll out.  Lab 51%, Con 30%, UKIP 9%, LD 7%, BNP 2%, Green 1%
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Peoples_Pledge_Corby_Poll_October2012.pdf
(I presume the "General Election" in the question is a mistake, rather than what they actually asked.)

Lovely 4th place finish. Better that and Rotherham, the next few months are gonna be lovely for Nick Clegg.

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LOL "Vote blue, go green"

Cameron not being the "liberal conservative" he was right up until he passed the threshold of number 10!? Well, I don't believe it.

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LibDem is delaying as they're 9 votes away from their deposit...

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Kudos to Mr Mozzarella

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Incredible result for Labour and UKIP.

If you count all of yesterday's by-elections, UKIP finished ahead of the LibDems. They also leading them in the PCCs, so maybe YouGov's right.

And it goes without saying that if the Tories are bleeding votes to UKIP in marginals like Corby...

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And after 9 by-elections in this parliament...

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The overall swing in by-elections in the 2005-2010 parliament pointed to a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party, btw.

That's why I put it together, I've been doing it since Oldham.

Should I upload the excel file?

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20345196

Surprised UKIP haven't siad anything, given they got over 14%.

Is Nigel Farage ill or something? He's normally never off the TV even if they get like 3% at these things.

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LibDems asked for a recount to see if they'd kept their deposit. Which is fine. They then asked for another one.

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LOL Lib-Dems.

One re-count that doesn't determine the winner is surely enough, right?

And congratulations to UKIP on their high showing here tonight! May UKIP go on to even better and brighter fields!

They ran the Liberals pretty close for 3rd in the PCCs as well. Despite the PCC elections being total nonsense, Thursday was still a good day for UKIP.

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Here we go. After 12 by-elections...


Rotherham and Bradford have really messed with the figures, but maybe we're just heading for a really bizarre general election. We need to see something in a Tory target held by the Liberals for a better picture.

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I thought I'd gone wrong somewhere! (And i've put Northern Ireland on a different page of the spreadsheet )

Very interesting table thanks for posting.  

The Tories have lost more support than the Lib Dems, something I would not have expected.  

I think the Tories have had further to fall in most of the seats we've had so far and, as well, the Tories were a lot more friendly to tactically voting LibDem to stop Labour than they are now. I find it hard to remember the days of 'Rose Garden politics', to be fair.