Corby by-election

[Phony Moderate]

Anyway, there's already speculation that Boris may run.

[Phony Moderate]

Labour have apparently chosen Andy Sawford.

[Phony Moderate]

I'm just looking at a history of recent by-election polling. Ashcroft's Feltham and Heston poll was surprisingly accurate; within a couple of points of both the Labour and Tory percentages. Survation will probably release a poll at some point too. They were even more accurate in Feltham and Heston; they understated Labour and overstated the Tories each by a single point.

But yeah, quite a lot of by-election polls have been....well, pretty ghastly. Probably most notably the two polls for Glasgow East in 2008 - they both predicted an easy Labour hold.

[Phony Moderate]

Leicester South
Survation   Lab 61%, Con 20%, Lib 14%, UKIP 5%
Actual      Lab 58%, Lib 22%, Con 15%, UKIP 3%

Not very often do the Lib Dems get underestimated by an opinion poll.

[Phony Moderate]

The overall swing in by-elections in the 2005-2010 parliament pointed to a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party, btw.

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20345196

Surprised UKIP haven't siad anything, given they got over 14%.

Is Nigel Farage ill or something? He's normally never off the TV even if they get like 3% at these things.

He was on QT just last night.