Corby by-election

[YL]

Louise Mensch is standing down - BBC article.

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Sibboleth doesn't just mean it vote like Motherwell, Corby is very Scottish ( 20% of the population was born there and another third has ancestry), so much so that it's the only town in England apart from London with two church of Scotland churches.  What I wonder though, does this culture make it more left wing than a similar, very English town? From the small amount of digging I've done it doesn't seem so, but I'm happy to be proven wrong.

Labour should really win this one though, considering the coalition's current popularity levels.

Supposedly people from Corby town even have Scottish accents (though I wonder whether this just means that there's something in their accents which sounds a bit Scottish to English people) and IIRC it's even been suggested at some point (I suspect not very seriously) that the SNP might stand there.

But it should be remembered that there's a lot of this constituency outside Corby town;  otherwise Louise Mensch would never have been MP for it in the first place.  I note that a lot of the media coverage is referring to the constituency as "Corby and East Northamptonshire".

[YL]

Boris has dismissed speculation that he's standing.

I think that was always rather silly.  Not only is the seat too marginal for that sort of thing, but his re-election in London is too recent.  I don't think that it makes sense for someone to be both Mayor of London and an MP for any length of time, especially if the constituency is outside London, and his resignation from Henley suggests he agrees.  Even if he doesn't agree, the voters of Corby might.

[YL]

Lewis Baston's article about the constituency and the by-election on Huffington Post

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Update.

Louise Mensch has now officially resigned been appointed Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead, vacating the seat.

Various parties have candidates.  The Tory candidate is not, in spite of rumours spread by a certain publicity seeking right-wing blogger, the recently retired England cricket captain Andrew Strauss.  From Wikipedia, the list is

Christine Emmett (Con)
Jill Hope (Lib Dem)
Lord Toby Jug (OMRLP)
Margot Parker (UKIP)
Andy Sawford (Lab)
David Wickham (English Democrats)

The Tory candidate is a councillor in Rutland, not very far away, but was quoted as referring to the constituency as "Corby and North East Hants".  Oops.

[YL]

That provisional list of candidates has doubled in size in the last few days.  The additions are (again based on the Wikipedia page):

- James Delingpole, climate change denying right-wing journalist, standing as an Independent campaigning against wind farms.  I'm not sure I see the point of the OMRLP candidacy any more.
- Adam Lotun, a disabled rights campaigner, supported by a number of campaign groups including UKUncut.
- Peter Reynolds, Cannabis Law Reform.
- a BNP candidate
- Rohen Kapur, Young People's Party, whoever they are.  Stood as an Independent in Hornsey & Wood Green in 2010 and got 91 votes.  From his blog it seems he doesn't like Mitt Romney or the Labour Party very much.
- Christopher Scotton, United People's Party (who are also supposedly standing in Manchester Central - edit: actually it seems that they have disowned their candidate there)

[YL]

Guardian article on the by-election

I presume the Ashcroft poll referred to is the one from August.

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Ashcroft's about to release a poll showing Labour 22-points clear. Wow.

Lab 54 Con 32 LD 5 Others 8.  Details here

I don't know what the track record of Ashcroft's polls is like.  They presumably ought to be thought of in the same way as Tory internals, even though they don't always give good news for the party.

[YL]

Delingpole withdrew, depriving us of some amusement at him losing his deposit.

There are 14 candidates:
David Bishop (Elvis Loves Pets Party) [1]
Christine Emmett (Con)
Ian Gillman (Independent)
Jill Hope (Lib Dem)
Jonathan Hornett (Green)
Rohen Kapur (Young People's Party)
Adam Lotun (Democracy 2015)
Mr Mozzarella (Independent) (sic) [2]
Margot Parker (UKIP)
Peter Reynolds (Cannabis Law Reform)
Gordon Riddell (BNP)
Andy Sawford (Lab)
Chris Scotton (United People's Party)
David Wickham (English Democrats)

http://www.east-northamptonshire.gov.uk/downloads/SOPN_Corby.pdf

[1] registered description of the Church of the Militant Elvis
[2] http://dontcookparty.org/our-man-for-corby/

[YL]

Latest from the Grauniad:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/nov/08/labour-corby-voters-louise-mensch

There's also a ComRes poll out.  Lab 51%, Con 30%, UKIP 9%, LD 7%, BNP 2%, Green 1%
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/Peoples_Pledge_Corby_Poll_October2012.pdf
(I presume the "General Election" in the question is a mistake, rather than what they actually asked.)

[YL]

That map shows the polarisation well!

Not much point in doing the same for Manchester Central or Rotherham, I suppose.

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LOL "Vote blue, go green"

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You equate the 1989 Liberals with the pre-merger party?