WI: Rasmussen: Baldwin leads entire GOP field
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  WI: Rasmussen: Baldwin leads entire GOP field
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Author Topic: WI: Rasmussen: Baldwin leads entire GOP field  (Read 4613 times)
AmericanNation
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« Reply #25 on: August 02, 2012, 11:35:08 AM »
« edited: August 02, 2012, 11:43:52 AM by AmericanNation »

This poll has some goofy cross tabs.

The Republican primary evangelical Christians percentages look messed up toward the high side.  

Fitzgerald had a 21% disapproval number, which is absolutely absurd considering maybe 2% of Wisconsin Republicans would have a reason to disapprove of him.

All this poll says is that Republicans have 4 fantastic candidates battling each other while democrats have an average at best candidate sitting there unopposed because her lesbian super PAC (LPAC) would have destroyed any primary challenger (Ron Kind), if they could find one willing and able to step up.  I would prefer to be on the side with a surplus of great candidates vs. the side that can barely manage to find an acceptable one.                    

The R primary has gone really negative, but nothing serious.  They are trying to out-trivial attack each other (except Fitzgerald, who benefits from staying out of the fray) because you can't make an honest serious attack on these guys (nothing found so far).  

Hovde and his money is really the biggest story of the primary.  He is spending something like 5 million personal money(guesstimate) IN.THE.PRIMARY!  He can answer attacks twice as much as the attacker can attack.  Neumann still has some bad will leftover from when he went negative on Walker in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, so that has limited the damage on Hovde.  

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The Primary still will boil down to the Tommy vote (how big it is) and how much the non-Tommy vote coalesces behind one guy (Hovde or Neumann) and Fitzgerald will gain protest votes against the negative primary.  How much that turns out to be is a "X" factor.                  
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This is about right, Tommy will have a hard time getting above 35%.


This will probably be the most interesting R primary in Wisco history.  People that are worried about blowing the pickup of the seat shouldn't worry at this point.  The top three are likely to beat Baldwin and Fitzgerald could if he did the right things after the primary.  
Neumann nearly won 3 statewide campaigns and would have beat Feingold in 10' if he would have entered the right race.  Losing close races to Feingold and Walker is a plus not a minus.
Hovde looks to be the real deal.  He is really smart, but too defensive(he isn't a politician for better AND worse), but his money overcomes that.  
Thompson is the 4 time Governor and cabinet secretary who is the father of the party in the state.  
Fitzgerald is the Assembly Speaker who passed through the biggest and best reforms in the history of the state last session.  If anyone can claim to be a Scott Walker Republican... He can.  His only handicap is that he hasn't run 3-4 statewide campaigns and/or isn't personally wealthy like his opponents.  

How the state chooses between 4 correct answers is super interesting.  

FYI, http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WI_731.pdf
              
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #26 on: August 03, 2012, 08:10:56 AM »

So, when Rasmussen has a Democrat leading, it's an outlier?

When it varies from better WI pollsters like MLS and PPP, both of which have quite different numbers, yes. Have any game-changing events occurred in 3 weeks? None that I've heard of, though resident Badgers could correct me if I'm wrong.

In RogueBeaver's defense, when Rasmussen had Baldwin down 16, he agreed with me that it was a junk poll.

I always think Ras is junk. Wink

Agreed, I'd strongly urge my fellow Democrats to remember that this is a Rasmussen poll, cherry-picking poll numbers will only lead to disappointment on election day.  Just because this poll shows favorable results doesn't make Rasmussen any less of a junk pollster.  Now if a more credible firm also shows a major shift towards Baldwin, that would be something to get excited about.  But at the moment, all we can do is wait for a better firm to poll the race.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #27 on: August 06, 2012, 08:55:12 AM »

http://www.wigderson.com/index.php/2012/08/05/fair-wisconsin-misidentifies-eric-hovde-as-a-democrat/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook

Fair Wisconsin misidentifies Eric Hovde as a Democrat
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #28 on: August 06, 2012, 10:52:17 AM »

That has nothing to do with this poll.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #29 on: August 06, 2012, 01:30:05 PM »

yea i know, but I didn't think entering the messed up poll/ new thread on it was a good idea/necessary.   
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