MO-Sen: In MO Senate race, Ads Beset Incumbent Democrat
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Author Topic: MO-Sen: In MO Senate race, Ads Beset Incumbent Democrat  (Read 1667 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: August 06, 2012, 07:35:14 AM »
Money's the icing on a pendulum cake IMO.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/06/us/politics/in-missouri-senate-race-ads-beset-incumbent-democrat.html?_r=1&ref=politics&gwh=F55AF7AE3B1006B22726D08E84BE724F
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2012, 12:32:30 PM »
Claire McCaskill is Blanche Lincoln.  Nothing can save her from a landslide loss.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2012, 12:36:19 PM »
Quote from: timothyinMD on August 06, 2012, 12:32:30 PM
Claire McCaskill is Blanche Lincoln.  Nothing can save her from a landslide loss.

This. But Akin will make it a bit harder.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2012, 08:32:28 PM »
I've been expecting to lose this seat since 2007... Lol
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2012, 09:05:32 PM »

Hardly.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2012, 09:16:54 PM »

She'll lose in the upper singles or low doubles rather than 20 but similar dynamic. State is rapidly Republicanizing and she's hung out to dry.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2012, 09:36:10 PM »
Quote from: Romney/Ryan 2012! on August 06, 2012, 09:16:54 PM

She'll lose in the upper singles or low doubles rather than 20 but similar dynamic. State is rapidly Republicanizing and she's hung out to dry.

I agree completely. Even with all the spending she's been doing, she's still trailing her opponents. She had also hoped the GOP primary would be extremely divisive and help her in the general election, but that isn't the case.

She doesn't seem like she'll be able to outperform Obama by more than a couple of points, if at all. And I fully expect him to lose by more than that. Voters are quite apathetic towards her and see her as just another Democrat. She doesn't have the personal affinity or numbers that a Democrat running in a state as red as Missouri needs in a non-Dem wave year (unlike Heitkamp or Tester).  Once the outside groups enter, she's done.
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mondale84
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2012, 10:25:29 PM »
The DNC and DSCC abandoned Blanche VERY early. Claire hasn't been abandoned yet. I think she's definitely the underdog, but I think she may just pull it out. It will be close though.
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2012, 01:31:42 PM »
Quote from: mondale84 on August 06, 2012, 10:25:29 PM
The DNC and DSCC abandoned Blanche VERY early. Claire hasn't been abandoned yet. I think she's definitely the underdog, but I think she may just pull it out. It will be close though.

Closer than Lincoln's race, but a decent 5 to 9 point defeat is likely.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2012, 01:37:41 PM »
Charlie Cook thinks she still has a chance with Akin but I agree with Chuck Todd that she's done. IMO Akin is a Berg, not an Angle. (Around 6:15 or so)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036789/vp/48546464#48546464
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Maxwell
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2012, 01:42:34 PM »
She doesn't seem to have much of a shot of getting re-elected.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2012, 02:14:18 PM »
Quote from: bgwah on August 06, 2012, 08:32:28 PM
I've been expecting to lose this seat since 2007... Lol

Same.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2012, 03:33:45 PM »
If Obama invests in the state and keeps it close she might have a chance. Things aren't looking bright for her Senate career, however.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2012, 07:11:11 PM »
Results will start coming in any minute. Brunner's base is western MO and St. Louis, Steelman rural counties, Akin STL/rural.

http://www.politico.com/2012-election/map/#/Senate/2012/Primary/MO
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2012, 07:12:22 PM »
Does anyone have a link to the results?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2012, 07:12:55 PM »

See my previous post.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2012, 07:20:44 PM »
Very first results from 2 rural counties: Steelman 47, Akin/Brunner 23.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2012, 08:39:41 PM »
Akin has been ahead for quite a while now but not by much. Brunner was in second, but it was clear from most of the counties in rural MO that he would fall to third and he has done so now.
 
Still very close and a lot left to go, but it appears only Steelman has a chance of beating Akin, now.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2012, 08:49:46 PM »
I say Akin unless Steelman pulls a miracle.

Lesson learnt from MO/NE: Whoever mudslings the least closest to P-Day wins.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2012, 08:52:36 PM »
Yea, it is most likely Akin. 
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2012, 09:16:19 PM »
I think there's still a long ways to go. Akin is favored, but I think Steelman could still certainly win, looking at outstanding counties. There seems to be no pattern in this map, though. Tongue
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2012, 09:17:56 PM »
It's narrowing!
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #22 on: August 07, 2012, 09:19:08 PM »
Keep our fingers crossed.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #23 on: August 07, 2012, 09:19:43 PM »
Quote from: Tmthforu94 on August 07, 2012, 09:16:19 PM
I think there's still a long ways to go. Akin is favored, but I think Steelman could still certainly win, looking at outstanding counties. There seems to be no pattern in this map, though. Tongue

That is Steelman's biggest problem, though. She really needed to dominate a particular region of the state. She will win many counties, but by small margins in places that would produce small margins anyway based on their size. Meanwhile, Akin has St. Lo. Granted Brunner is taking some of that pie, it isn't enough to seriously cause problems for Akin.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #24 on: August 07, 2012, 09:30:20 PM »
Akin will be a good Senator if he wins.
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