Early signs on election night.

[pbrower2a]

If the first states KY and IN are not called right away, Romney is toast.

They will be, so don't worry.  It's not a conspiracy theory, it's true.

Election 2000

Ariz, Bush by 7 CNN took 2 hrs, 51 mins
Mich, Gore by 4, CNN took just 1 hr, 24

Arkansas, Bush by 6, CNN took 3 hrs, 42 mins
Penn, Gore by 4, CNN too 1 hr, 24 mins

Tennessee, Bush by 3, CNN took 3 hrs, 3 mins
Minnesota, Gore by 2, CNN too 1 hr, 25 mins

West Virginia, Bush by 6, CNN took 3 hours, 15 mins
Washington, Gore by 5, CNN took 1 hr, 8 mins..


Shall I go on?

Have you ever considered that some states count slower or faster than others? Or some states report more uniformly than others? Or the fact that Bush won many traditionally solid dem states in 2000 (Arkansas, West Virginia) made existing turnout models (which these calls are based on) not as easily applicable as in places that were traditionally swing states (Pennsylvania, Michigan)?

Nah, some giant mainstream media conspiracy to depress Republican turnout in Alaska and Hawaii is obviously a more sensible explanation.

Ohio is one of the fastest of electorally-large states to count its vote. In 2008 the networks called it around 9:15 PM despite it being decided by a razor-thin margin. In 2000 and 2004 much the same happened. Roughly one hour and forty-five minutes the state was called. That is swift, considering that Ohio either has been or could have been the deciding state. Contrast Indiana, which counts its vote very slowly.  

I suspect that the media are slow to call any state expected to be close or that is acting in a way uncharacteristic of the political history of the state. Note how slowly the media called Florida (2000 was a warning) and especially Virginia. Media were not going to call any state that hadn't gone for a Democratic nominee for President for the Democrat until the state was an absolute clinch.

2000? The media found it hard to believe that Al Gore couldn't win Tennessee (his home state!) in a close election, or Arkansas, where one reasonably expected a residual influence of Bill Clinton. Before 2000 it was generally known that a Democratic nominee could not win without those two states.  

So I expect that states that were close in 2008 will not be called early unless they are blowouts. If President Obama should be winning Ohio by 8% or so, then you can expect Ohio to be an unusually-quick call. If he is ahead in Michigan by only 4% according to the vote and the exit polls, then expect Michigan to be a slow call.

The media might wish that the electoral results keep people in suspense so that people not seek out sports, sitcoms, or old movies... but there is a point at which the suspense is unjustifiable. Up 4% with 98% of all precincts in creates only one question -- why isn't the state called?


 

[timothyinMD]

Its pretty egregious that they didn't call SC, MS, and LA immediately.  Kerry had ZERO chance there.

As for the media "having a hard time believing" Gore couldn't win Tennessee, polls showing Bush leading should have been a clue

[old timey villain]

If the first states KY and IN are not called right away, Romney is toast.

They will be, so don't worry.  It's not a conspiracy theory, it's true.

Election 2000

Ariz, Bush by 7 CNN took 2 hrs, 51 mins
Mich, Gore by 4, CNN took just 1 hr, 24

Arkansas, Bush by 6, CNN took 3 hrs, 42 mins
Penn, Gore by 4, CNN too 1 hr, 24 mins

Tennessee, Bush by 3, CNN took 3 hrs, 3 mins
Minnesota, Gore by 2, CNN too 1 hr, 25 mins

West Virginia, Bush by 6, CNN took 3 hours, 15 mins
Washington, Gore by 5, CNN took 1 hr, 8 mins..


Shall I go on?

This is your argument? That one network took a bit longer to call a hand full of states 12 years ago?

It looks to me like all of the Bush states that took CNN a while to call were Clinton states in 1992 and 1996, so they wanted to be sure they had actually flipped back into the R column. In journalism they say it's better to get it right than to get it first (even though CNN failed miserably on that with the Obamacare ruling). But if I recall, a lot of those Bush states could have gone either way, since they were won by Clinton. But they really weren't a sure thing for either candidate, while Minnesota and Washington at least weren't really in doubt.

[Torie]

What percentage is Mittens projected in Indiana is the earliest sign. If it is 55% or above, that is a good sign for him. If less, that is a bad sign.

[timothyinMD]

What percentage is Mittens projected in Indiana is the earliest sign. If it is 55% or above, that is a good sign for him. If less, that is a bad sign.

They may not call it right away because of what happened last time, but Obama's approval is in the gutter in Indiana (38%).  Romney will be campaigning there this week.  Obama has not a chance in hell of winning it again

[Thomas D]

I don't see why NBC or any other network would wait to make calls. It seems to me as someone who flips around on election night calls are made at about the same time everywhere. I think all the networks call OH for Obama between 9:20-9:30 ET.

Tim are you saying the networks call Dem states first to make GOP viewers sad? Because the votes will all be counted either way.

[Tender Branson]

What percentage is Mittens projected in Indiana is the earliest sign. If it is 55% or above, that is a good sign for him. If less, that is a bad sign.

They may not call it right away because of what happened last time, but Obama's approval is in the gutter in Indiana (38%).  Romney will be campaigning there this week.  Obama has not a chance in hell of winning it again

38% ? Where did you get this from ?

Rasmussen will have a new Indiana Presidential poll out later today, so we get new figures.

[Politico]

We're getting ahead of ourselves since it's not written in stone that the polls will show it being a close race on election day. Mind you, I think it will either be close or a Romney blowout, but the latter is still a distinct possibility at this point. Six of the last eight races involving incumbents were blowouts, dating back about half a century, and it is really difficult to see Obama winning a blowout at this point. In other words, odds are that Romney is going to win this in a blowout or it's a 50-50 tossup in a close race (Ford barely lost in '76 and Bush barely won in '04; current conditions are far more in line with 1976 than 2004 since we're in an economic malaise after the end of a war, resembling 1976 to a strong degree, although obviously Ford is a very different president than Obama and so forth...).

Obviously every race is different and what has happened before has no real bearing on the present, but history tends to repeat itself...

[Oldiesfreak1854]

An early call of Ohio or Florida for one candidate.  (I rate both of them as toss-ups).

[Torie]

One thing that I hope continues, is that at least Fox has started giving the actual exit poll percentages. With those, one should get a pretty good idea in a hurry without waiting for some hard numbers to start parsing the size of the swings, what kind of night it is going to be when Indiana's polls close at 4 pm PST I think, even if the exit polls can be off by a few percent. In addition to Florida and Virginia, the states around the Great Lakes plus Iowa are probably the most critical in this election and tend to swing together, plus Florida and Virginia. Kentucky closes early too, and counts fast, but that state is more idiosyncratic when it comes to swings, and the cultural South swing to the extent KY mirrors it is of far less importance.  

[Oldiesfreak1854]

One thing that I hope continues, is that at least Fox has started giving the actual exit poll percentages. With those, one should get a pretty good idea in a hurry without waiting for some hard numbers to start parsing the size of the swings, what kind of night it is going to be when Indiana's polls close at 4 pm PST I think, even if the exit polls can be off by a few percent. In addition to Florida and Virginia, the states around the Great Lakes plus Iowa are probably the most critical in this election and tend to swing together, plus Florida and Virginia. Kentucky closes early too, and counts fast, but that state is more idiosyncratic when it comes to swings, and the cultural South swing to the extent KY mirrors it is of far less importance.  

I'd generally agree with you, but exit polls are never very reliable.  Calling races based on exit polls is part of how the networks really got burned with Florida in 2000.