Will Obama ...
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Poll
Question: open a national double-digit lead after the Democratic Convention ?
#1
Yes, even until Election Day where he wins by DDs
 
#2
Yes, but it won't last very long
 
#3
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 28

Author Topic: Will Obama ...  (Read 347 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: August 07, 2012, 01:12:30 AM »

One of my theories:

Obama seems to be doing quite well in the swing state polling so far, probably because he's aired already many ads there.

Obama's not doing so fine in other states, especially Democratic ones like CA (some polls only show him ahead by 11) or Oregon and Michigan etc.

Which could mean that the national polls right now show a close race, because Obama is only ahead by about 10-15% in big states like CA.

But after the conventions, Democrats in big Democratic states like CA, MI, IL, etc. should be highly motivated to vote and produce polls with bigger margins for Obama.

If the swing states remain favorable for Obama as well, could he open a national double-digit lead on Romney after the 1st week of September ? And if yes, how long will it hold ?
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2012, 01:16:49 AM »

I doubt anyone's going to have a double-digit lead, and if they do it won't last long.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2012, 01:19:47 AM »

Sure. I think people who act like this election is going to definitely 100% be close are just as silly as people who think this election is definitely 100% going to be won by a certain candidate. The majority of American elections are not close, and I could realistically see the bottom falling out from either candidate's campaign.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2012, 01:20:17 AM »

I don't see anyone getting a greater than five point convention bounce.  (If Obama does seem to get more than five, it'll be because Romney's bounce will not have fully deflated before Obama gets his.)

So it'll need more than just a convention bounce for either side to ever have a legitimate double digit lead nationally.
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2012, 03:36:06 PM »

I don't think Romney will get a bounce, and if he does, it'll only last a few days. The Democartic Convention starts only 3 days after the GOP Convention ends. So the Dems are gonna rebut Romney's bounce with their own.
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Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2012, 03:43:54 PM »

If the bounce happened for Obama the GOP would sh!t themself.
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