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Author Topic: AN's "Swing State" Maps  (Read 1673 times)
AmericanNation
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« on: August 06, 2012, 09:57:46 pm »
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IF held today = Obama 303 / Romney 235(-34)
   "Swing" = Obama 243(-27) / Romney 206(-63) / Toss 89
"swing score"= Obama 60     /  Romney 29
Closest states to becoming tossups = NC, NV


« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 10:21:36 pm by AmericanNation »Logged
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2012, 10:02:20 pm »
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Rhode Island is a tossup?
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2012, 10:17:01 pm »
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Rhode Island is a tossup?
no, it was left blank... corrected.
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2012, 10:24:17 pm »
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The only poll showing Obama not leading in Florida since May has been Purple Strategies, an uproven pollster with no track record. Calling the state slight Romney makes no sense.
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2012, 10:30:23 pm »
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IF held today = Obama 303 / Romney 235(-34)
   "Swing" = Obama 243(-27) / Romney 206(-63) / Toss 89
"swing score"= Obama 60     /  Romney 29
Closest states to becoming tossups = NC, NV



CO is more of a tossup than NV, you're wrong on that. VA is barely for Obama, and AZ is solid Romney based on polls. FL is tossup still.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 10:31:56 pm by RockyIce »Logged
AmericanNation
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2012, 10:35:24 pm »
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CO is more of a tossup than NV, you're wrong on that. VA is barely for Obama, and AZ is solid Romney based on polls. FL is tossup still.
everything you said, is the way I have it.  ...except for the part about me being wrong.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 10:59:38 pm by AmericanNation »Logged
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2012, 10:39:40 pm »
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IF held today = Obama 303 / Romney 235(-34)
   "Swing" = Obama 243(-27) / Romney 206(-63) / Toss 89
"swing score"= Obama 60     /  Romney 29
Closest states to becoming tossups = NC, NV



CO is more of a tossup than NV, you're wrong on that. VA is barely for Obama, and AZ is solid Romney based on polls. FL is tossup still.

I haven't seen a single poll with Romney ahead in NV; the same cannot be said for CO.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2012, 10:41:11 pm »
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The only poll showing Obama not leading in Florida since May has been Purple Strategies, an uproven pollster with no track record. Calling the state slight Romney makes no sense.
PPP has it O+1
Purple = R + 3
Quinnipiac looks all messed up with useless registered voter samples.

You should acknowledge their really hasn't been much good polling done in Florida lately.  
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2012, 10:43:37 pm »
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Also SurveyUSA has Obama +5 and Mason-Dixon has Obama +1. At worst (for Obama), the state is a tie. Also the last Quinnipiac poll was likely voters, not registered.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2012, 10:43:58 pm »
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CO is more of a tossup than NV, you're wrong on that. VA is barely for Obama, and AZ is solid Romney based on polls. FL is tossup still.
I haven't seen a single poll with Romney ahead in NV; the same cannot be said for CO.
Yea... CO IS a tossup.  NV is the closest lean dem state to becoming a tossup.  
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2012, 10:51:22 pm »
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Also SurveyUSA has Obama +5 and Mason-Dixon has Obama +1. At worst (for Obama), the state is a tie.
It's Romney+1 on the map.  I'll flip it when I see some better polling for either side.  I could have left it blank, but I think it's better to leave it very slight lean R until we have some reason to think otherwise.  The state leans that way, Romney has been out of the country, The Veepstakes are around the corner, and the convention is in Tampa for crying out loud.       
« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 10:57:26 pm by AmericanNation »Logged
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2012, 11:04:48 pm »
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Watch Obama win NV by double digits again.
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2012, 11:15:16 pm »
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Iowa and Colorado are colored wrongly.
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2012, 12:20:05 am »
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Iowa and Colorado are colored wrongly.
That's what I meant to say.

My bad AmericanNation.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2012, 12:21:55 am »
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Watch Obama win NV by double digits again.

After Reid beating the polls by so much in 2010, it wouldn't surprise me. Nevada's only grown more hispanic since 2008.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2012, 06:11:59 am »
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Iowa and Colorado are colored wrongly.
That's what I meant to say.

My bad AmericanNation.
Like how?  more D? or even?
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2012, 06:25:36 am »
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I'm still wondering how Florida is under Romney's camp.
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2012, 07:21:34 am »
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Iowa and Colorado are colored wrongly.
That's what I meant to say.

My bad AmericanNation.
Like how?  more D? or even?

Even.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2012, 12:42:11 pm »
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Iowa and Colorado are colored wrongly.
That's what I meant to say.

My bad AmericanNation.
Like how?  more D? or even?

Even.

Iowa maybe, but Romney has yet to lead a poll out of Colorado.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2012, 09:18:33 am »
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Iowa and Colorado are colored wrongly.
That's what I meant to say.

My bad AmericanNation.
Like how?  more D? or even?
Even.
Iowa maybe, but Romney has yet to lead a poll out of Colorado.
It has been tied in CO though.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2012, 11:38:03 am »
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Iowa maybe, but Romney has yet to lead a poll out of Colorado.
It has been tied in CO though.

Hah. Spoke too soon.
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2012, 12:12:36 pm »
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Iowa maybe, but Romney has yet to lead a poll out of Colorado.
It has been tied in CO though.

Hah. Spoke too soon.



that's really good news
« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 12:16:07 pm by AmericanNation »Logged
realisticidealist
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« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2012, 12:14:29 pm »
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Iowa maybe, but Romney has yet to lead a poll out of Colorado.
It has been tied in CO though.

Hah. Spoke too soon.



that's really good news

Something happened to Connecticut...
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AmericanNation
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« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2012, 12:17:50 pm »
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yea, I'm finding weird things happen when you drag an image.  They particularly happen in the southern region of New England. 
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« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2012, 12:53:12 pm »
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Iowa maybe, but Romney has yet to lead a poll out of Colorado.
It has been tied in CO though.

Hah. Spoke too soon.



that's really good news

Not really, that Colorado poll by Quinnipac has multiple markers of being heavily skewed towards the Republicans.  Once you correct for any of them, it is a slight Obama poll, not a Lean Romney.
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