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| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  Who is most likely to win a 4th EV?
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Poll
Question: EV number 4?
Alaska   -1 (3.3%)
Delaware   -2 (6.7%)
North Dakota   -1 (3.3%)
South Dakota   -1 (3.3%)
Montana   -23 (76.7%)
Vermont   -1 (3.3%)
Wyoming   -1 (3.3%)
DC   -0 (0%)
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Total Voters: 30

Author Topic: Who is most likely to win a 4th EV?  (Read 433 times)
Deadly Poisonous Zanzibar Hamster
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« on: August 06, 2012, 09:59:32 pm »
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Had this on my mind and wondered what you all thought.
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2012, 10:14:57 pm »
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I don't think I've seen any projections for 2020 that predict that any of these states will gain a seat within the next 10 years. (Although it's easy to imagine a natural resource boom pushing Alaska or one of the Dakotas over the line. And maybe a change to DC's height limits would result in rapid growith within the District.) I think that this is more likely than present trends continuing uninterrupted, which, if I recall, would result in Delaware gaining a fourth EV.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2012, 10:16:53 pm by AverroŽs Nix »Logged

muon2
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2012, 10:21:44 pm »

The population of MT is likely to exceed that of RI in 2020. None of the other states on the list is in position to do that. However, the most likely outcome at present rates will be for RI to lose a seat and MT fall short of gaining one.
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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2012, 01:05:14 am »
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And maybe a change to DC's height limits would result in rapid growth within the District.

DC is guaranteed to get EV #4 last.  No matter its population, it can only get a fourth EV if every other State has 4.  So if 2 million Manhattanites had decamped for Washington, DC in the noughts, it would still have just 3 EV.

Quote from: XXIII Amendment
A number of electors of President and Vice President equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives in Congress to which the District would be entitled if it were a State, but in no event more than the least populous State; they shall be in addition to those appointed by the States
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2012, 07:07:21 am »

An interesting occurrence in the Dakotas is that neither is likely to get second CD even out to 2030. However if the energy boom continues to keep population rates up, and the two states were merged, it is possible that they would qualify for a third CD in 2030.
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2012, 09:29:07 am »
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An interesting occurrence in the Dakotas is that neither is likely to get second CD even out to 2030. However if the energy boom continues to keep population rates up, and the two states were merged, it is possible that they would qualify for a third CD in 2030.

Which is still a significant net loss in representation.
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2012, 11:59:59 am »
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Delaware gets there first if you just extend current growth rates ad infinitum, I think. It doesn't take much of an upward adjustment of the growth rate to give Montana its second seat, however.
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2012, 09:08:51 pm »

An interesting occurrence in the Dakotas is that neither is likely to get second CD even out to 2030. However if the energy boom continues to keep population rates up, and the two states were merged, it is possible that they would qualify for a third CD in 2030.

Which is still a significant net loss in representation.

Certainly true due to the Senate. I was just looking at the House formula, where either would be short of a second alone.
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2012, 09:16:38 pm »

Delaware gets there first if you just extend current growth rates ad infinitum, I think. It doesn't take much of an upward adjustment of the growth rate to give Montana its second seat, however.


That could be true but unlikely. DE is growing at 0.8% and MT is growing at 0.7% since MT is about 10.3% larger than DE it will take just under 100 years at these rates for DE to catch MT.
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