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Author Topic: Can Romney win without OH? Maps?  (Read 1355 times)
Likely Voter
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« on: August 07, 2012, 01:07:18 pm »
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OH is considered a bellweather state. Last person to win without OH was JFK in 1960. No Republican has ever won without Ohio. But this year polling shows that OH is trending more Dem. The current RCP avg for OH is Obama +4.8, or about +1.3 ahead of the national numbers. This makes OH more Dem than most of the other swing states and indicates that if the race were a tie, OH would be on the Dem side.

Is this just a summer aberration and OH will swing back to its traditional position of leaning GOP?

If not, assuming PA and OH go for Obama, is there a credible path for Romney to win? Any maps?
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« Reply #1 on: August 07, 2012, 01:11:05 pm »
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« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2012, 01:11:33 pm »
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Its pretty simple. He'll have to shore up support in places where the Republicans are losing....the same way Bill Clinton was able to.



He'll just have to win everywhere else where Bush won.


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« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2012, 01:12:06 pm »
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If Romney can win WI, he has a way. If he doesn't win WI, and I seriously doubt he wins WI while losing OH, then he has to win Nevada. Assuming he wins Iowa in this scenario. It's just not plausible he wins without OH.
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« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2012, 01:14:18 pm »
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269-269 tie. Assuming the GOP keeps the House, this is a Romney win.

Romney could also win Wisconsin (win outright) in this scenario, theoretically.  That said, I doubt Romney wins WI without also winning OH.
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« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2012, 01:14:35 pm »
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If Romney can win WI, he has a way. If he doesn't win WI, and I seriously doubt he wins WI while losing OH, then he has to win Nevada. Assuming he wins Iowa in this scenario. It's just not plausible he wins without OH.

The odds of Mittens losing Ohio while winning Wisconsin might be around 5%.  
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« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2012, 01:17:27 pm »
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Though I cannot for the life of me remember where an elected president was knocked off in a nail-biter. I'm pretty sure that the map will either look like this or that unless we really have become a country that divided.




or



Romney will win by the same margin McCain lost by doing OK amongst Indies in places like Ohio but really good amongst "Obama Republicans" in places like Colorado, Oregon and even Connecticut.

I just have this feeling that if it goes to Romney, it goes to him through some black swan even in October where he wins big. 
« Last Edit: August 07, 2012, 01:19:54 pm by Steve French »Logged
realisticidealist
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« Reply #7 on: August 07, 2012, 01:20:08 pm »
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Republicans have really screwed the pooch in Ohio. This might be the number one reason why Obama is the odds-on favorite in the election.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #8 on: August 07, 2012, 03:28:31 pm »
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Basically Romney's challenge if he loses PA and OH is to win every single other swing state (FL, NC, VA, NH, CO, NV and IA). This gives him 273. It is possible, but odds are tough.


The 269 tie of losing OH and NH is also a possibility. And maybe the Romney campaign could pick off ME-2 at the end to avoid the hassle (remote).

I really don't see him breaking into any of the next tier of Dem states (PA, NM, WI, MN, MI, OR) while still losing OH and one of the other more swingy states.

Bottom line is that Romney needs to turn things around in OH. If he picks Portman as VP, it would indicate that they also see OH as a problem that needs to be fixed (not that he is going to be able to fix it easily)
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2012, 03:44:58 pm »
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269-269 tie. Assuming the GOP keeps the House, this is a Romney win.

Romney could also win Wisconsin (win outright) in this scenario, theoretically.  That said, I doubt Romney wins WI without also winning OH.

If Romney wins without Ohio it'll be like this.

Due to the GOP control of the House, he only needs 269EV's to win.
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2012, 03:59:50 pm »
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The odds would be enormous against him for the following reasons:

Hard to see a scenario where Romney loses OH, but wins either PA, MI, WI,  or NV.

Obama beat McCain in NV by double digits and he won all those other states
by greater margins than he did OH.

OTOH, I see numerous scenarios where Obama could lose OH and win.
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2012, 04:39:24 pm »
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Basically President Obama has far more ways to win, and no single state so far makes the difference. But Mitt Romney has the opposite situation in which he must win a raft of states without losing one.

The situation is much as it was for John McCain, except that Nevada gets polled more often (and is surprisingly steady). That just about offsets the shift of electoral votes away from the Blue Firewall of 2008.

Mitt must win every one of these:

Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri

Obama won every one of these in 2008.

These are states different enough that there is no way to have any one campaign pitch that wins them all without reshaping the general race. Any one of them can move independently of each other. (If Indiana, Arizona, or Georgia were in play, then one could be sure that in each respective case Ohio, Colorado, and both North Carolina and Florida have gone for President Obama.

Wisconsin? Iowa? The Governor would have to cheat or induce cheating.

 
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morgieb
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2012, 09:33:59 pm »
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Basically President Obama has far more ways to win, and no single state so far makes the difference. But Mitt Romney has the opposite situation in which he must win a raft of states without losing one.

The situation is much as it was for John McCain, except that Nevada gets polled more often (and is surprisingly steady). That just about offsets the shift of electoral votes away from the Blue Firewall of 2008.

Mitt must win every one of these:

Colorado
Ohio
Virginia
Florida
North Carolina
Missouri

Obama won every one of these in 2008.

These are states different enough that there is no way to have any one campaign pitch that wins them all without reshaping the general race. Any one of them can move independently of each other. (If Indiana, Arizona, or Georgia were in play, then one could be sure that in each respective case Ohio, Colorado, and both North Carolina and Florida have gone for President Obama.

Wisconsin? Iowa? The Governor would have to cheat or induce cheating.

 


No he didn't.

But it looks very hard for Romney to win without Ohio.
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2012, 09:38:37 pm »
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President von Cat
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2012, 09:52:38 pm »
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The answer is no, because none of these maps are based in reality. Romney will not win Wisconsin while losing Ohio, sorry guys.
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morgieb
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2012, 10:17:07 pm »
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Don't really see Romney winning Wisconsin even if (with?) Ryan as the Veep. There are reasons why it went Obama by 14, and voted Kerry and Gore.
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pepper11
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2012, 10:22:14 pm »
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Romney / Ryan (he only needs one of Iowa / NH )
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President von Cat
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2012, 10:43:24 pm »
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Wishful thinking. Ryan only has a House seat, meaning he only has had to run in one district of Wisconsin and not the whole state. There's no reason to believe that the influence from his House seat would put the entire state in play.
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pepper11
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2012, 10:50:50 pm »
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Wishful thinking. Ryan only has a House seat, meaning he only has had to run in one district of Wisconsin and not the whole state. There's no reason to believe that the influence from his House seat would put the entire state in play.

PPP in July.

Obama v Romney : 50/44
Obama/Biden v Romney /Ryan: 47/46

So yes, there is reason to believe he would put the state in play.
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« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2012, 11:07:56 pm »
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Its tough, but not impossible. On election night I'm watching Virgnia, Florida, and New Hampshire. If Romney can get all three of those, would we like to have Ohio, because that would put Romney at exactly 270. Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa...those are all options to look at without Ohio once Virgnia, Florida, and New Hampshire are in the republican column.
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2012, 01:22:51 am »
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Wishful thinking. Ryan only has a House seat, meaning he only has had to run in one district of Wisconsin and not the whole state. There's no reason to believe that the influence from his House seat would put the entire state in play.

PPP in July.

Obama v Romney : 50/44
Obama/Biden v Romney /Ryan: 47/46

So yes, there is reason to believe he would put the state in play.

Nice to know you take PPP seriously after all. (eyeroll)
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2012, 03:17:02 am »
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269-269 tie. Assuming the GOP keeps the House, this is a Romney win.

Romney could also win Wisconsin (win outright) in this scenario, theoretically.  That said, I doubt Romney wins WI without also winning OH.

I seriously doubt he wins Nevada while losing Ohio.

Anyway, he's likely toast without Ohio.
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morgieb
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« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2012, 03:55:43 am »
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Its tough, but not impossible. On election night I'm watching Virgnia, Florida, and New Hampshire. If Romney can get all three of those, would we like to have Ohio, because that would put Romney at exactly 270. Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa...those are all options to look at without Ohio once Virgnia, Florida, and New Hampshire are in the republican column.

Why would he win Michigan without Ohio?
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opebo
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« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2012, 04:40:02 am »
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This would be the only remotely realistic map:



However he is still behind not only in OH, but also in VA, WI, IA, CO, and FL.  Ultimately I do expect him to move ahead in most of those states due to racism, but I think not all.
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« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2012, 04:57:15 am »
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If he's not winning the types of voters he needs to win Ohio, he's not winning them in Wisconsin or Iowa or Pennsylvania neither.
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