DC Area/Heart+Mind Strategies: Obama leads in DC and MD suburbs, tied in NoVa
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  DC Area/Heart+Mind Strategies: Obama leads in DC and MD suburbs, tied in NoVa
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Author Topic: DC Area/Heart+Mind Strategies: Obama leads in DC and MD suburbs, tied in NoVa  (Read 2349 times)
Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #25 on: August 10, 2012, 03:57:28 PM »

Or in another words, she doesn't know and just knows what she is told.


What were the NOVA results in 2008?
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Sbane
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« Reply #26 on: August 10, 2012, 04:16:59 PM »
« Edited: August 10, 2012, 04:19:13 PM by Senator Sbane »

Or in another words, she doesn't know and just knows what she is told.


What were the NOVA results in 2008?

Excluding the cities it was 56.7-43.3 Obama. Excluding Arlington County as well it was 55.5-45.5. And including all the cities it was 57.6-42.4. So anyway you cut it, this is a bad poll for Obama.
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Alcon
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« Reply #27 on: August 10, 2012, 04:23:11 PM »

I emailed the author of the story for a clarification, specifically asking if Alexndria, Fredericksburg, etc. had been polled. She repeated the list of counties, and said "Those are the designated areas we are told where the polling took place."

So, she's basically saying the pollster sent her a list of those, and refusing to make any further inference.  I think this is a case where you need to contact the pollster directly.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #28 on: August 10, 2012, 06:49:11 PM »

Or in another words, she doesn't know and just knows what she is told.


What were the NOVA results in 2008?

Excluding the cities it was 56.7-43.3 Obama. Excluding Arlington County as well it was 55.5-45.5. And including all the cities it was 57.6-42.4. So anyway you cut it, this is a bad poll for Obama.

So is Romney losing massive ground in SW VA or something? Otherwise the numbers wouldn't make sense with where we know VA to be at right now (Obama by 3-5).
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Craigo
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« Reply #29 on: August 10, 2012, 06:59:42 PM »

I emailed the author of the story for a clarification, specifically asking if Alexndria, Fredericksburg, etc. had been polled. She repeated the list of counties, and said "Those are the designated areas we are told where the polling took place."

So, she's basically saying the pollster sent her a list of those, and refusing to make any further inference.  I think this is a case where you need to contact the pollster directly.

I sent them the same email just now, but the public email address is undeliverable. It's after business hours, so I can't call.

But needless to say my confidence in this firm is not increased.
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Alcon
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« Reply #30 on: August 10, 2012, 07:08:11 PM »

I emailed the author of the story for a clarification, specifically asking if Alexndria, Fredericksburg, etc. had been polled. She repeated the list of counties, and said "Those are the designated areas we are told where the polling took place."

So, she's basically saying the pollster sent her a list of those, and refusing to make any further inference.  I think this is a case where you need to contact the pollster directly.

I sent them the same email just now, but the public email address is undeliverable. It's after business hours, so I can't call.

But needless to say my confidence in this firm is not increased.

Hmm, thanks for the legwork on this!  Bizarre all-around
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #31 on: August 10, 2012, 07:11:50 PM »

Junk poll from a junk firm.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #32 on: August 10, 2012, 09:52:45 PM »

Or in another words, she doesn't know and just knows what she is told.


What were the NOVA results in 2008?

Excluding the cities it was 56.7-43.3 Obama. Excluding Arlington County as well it was 55.5-45.5. And including all the cities it was 57.6-42.4. So anyway you cut it, this is a bad poll for Obama.

So is Romney losing massive ground in SW VA or something? Otherwise the numbers wouldn't make sense with where we know VA to be at right now (Obama by 3-5).


I think it's safe to just assume this isn't a very good poll and these are probably not very good numbers. Though I wouldn't be surprised if Mitt Romney gets fewer votes out of SW VA than McCain did. Really Romney should be doing better than McCain in NoVA, so the fact that Obama hasn't lost that much of his 2008 margin in the state means he's making up ground somewhere else.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #33 on: August 12, 2012, 10:37:49 AM »

Though I wouldn't be surprised if Mitt Romney gets fewer votes out of SW VA than McCain did. Really Romney should be doing better than McCain in NoVA, so the fact that Obama hasn't lost that much of his 2008 margin in the state means he's making up ground somewhere else.

Obviously we don't really know regional details like this at this point, but it wouldn't surprise me if Obama is outperforming 2008 in Hampton Roads. Romney is a much worse candidate for the military community there than McCain, and Obama is probably a better candidate for them now than in 2008. The  first of these is kind of true for rural VA, but the second isn't.
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J. J.
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« Reply #34 on: August 12, 2012, 01:02:06 PM »

The areas that they did clearly poll still should have Obama a good lead.  The sample size is, however, low.

If it is actually an accurate poll, Obama is trouble in VA, but I do question if it is accurate.
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