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| | | |-+  Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5  (Read 1496 times)
Likely Voter
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« on: August 08, 2012, 05:16:43 am »
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Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS Poll on Swing States

Wisconsin
Obama: 51
Romney: 45

Virginia
Obama 49
Romney: 45

Colorado
Obama 45
Romney: 50

Likely Voters, 7/31-8/6/12

Article: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/08/us/politics/polls-see-sharp-divide-in-3-swing-states.html?hp
Graphs: http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/swing-state-polls
Details: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/08/us/politics/08poll-results-documents.html

This is a follow up to last weeks NYT/CBS Swing State Poll of FL, OH, PA
discussed here: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156770.0
« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 05:44:24 am by Secret Pollster »Logged

Lief
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2012, 05:22:09 am »
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That Colorado poll is bizarre.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2012, 05:25:01 am »
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That Colorado poll is bizarre.

Yeah, in 2008 it was more Democratic than Virginia but now it's 9 points more Republican?
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2012, 06:28:45 am »
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Officially confused about Colorado now. Polls are all over the place there.

The Wisconsin and Virginia numbers have been a lot more consistent.
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2012, 07:11:46 am »
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Wisconsin and Virginia is roughly where I expected.

Though that Colorado poll is very encouraging! Although I'm guessing the sample is slightly more Republican than usual. Interestingly, if you ignore PPP's polls of Colorado, the average Obama lead is only around two points or so which is much more realistic than the cries of it being... 'Lean Obama'.
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2012, 07:14:32 am »
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Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney?
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Wiz from Wis in Mass
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2012, 08:02:52 am »
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Wisconsin and Virginia is roughly where I expected.

Though that Colorado poll is very encouraging! Although I'm guessing the sample is slightly more Republican than usual. Interestingly, if you ignore PPP's polls of Colorado, the average Obama lead is only around two points or so which is much more realistic than the cries of it being... 'Lean Obama'.

And if you ignore Rasmussen polls while standing on your head and switch all 4s to 8s you get purple monkey dishwasher.

Lets be honest here... its likely that Q had a bad poll and we're all freaking out about nothing... especially when you consider that Romney has NEVER LEAD IN A CO POLL in our database and this is the first time Q is polling the state.
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2012, 08:12:00 am »
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Wisconsin and Virginia is roughly where I expected.

Though that Colorado poll is very encouraging! Although I'm guessing the sample is slightly more Republican than usual. Interestingly, if you ignore PPP's polls of Colorado, the average Obama lead is only around two points or so which is much more realistic than the cries of it being... 'Lean Obama'.

And if you ignore Rasmussen polls while standing on your head and switch all 4s to 8s you get purple monkey dishwasher.

Lets be honest here... its likely that Q had a bad poll and we're all freaking out about nothing... especially when you consider that Romney has NEVER LEAD IN A CO POLL in our database and this is the first time Q is polling the state.

Bain attacks probably backfired.
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2012, 08:13:19 am »
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PPP puts out garbage and Ras puts out polls at the polling average. How interesting.
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2012, 08:21:11 am »
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Anybody else find it amusing to see Virginia and Wisconsin voting almost identically now?


Wisconsin and Virginia is roughly where I expected.

Though that Colorado poll is very encouraging! Although I'm guessing the sample is slightly more Republican than usual. Interestingly, if you ignore PPP's polls of Colorado, the average Obama lead is only around two points or so which is much more realistic than the cries of it being... 'Lean Obama'.

And if you ignore Rasmussen polls while standing on your head and switch all 4s to 8s you get purple monkey dishwasher.

Lets be honest here... its likely that Q had a bad poll and we're all freaking out about nothing... especially when you consider that Romney has NEVER LEAD IN A CO POLL in our database and this is the first time Q is polling the state.

Bain attacks probably backfired.

In Colorado only?
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President von Cat
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2012, 08:44:30 am »
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Did the Bain ads even air in Colorado? Thought those were mainly targeted in the rust belt.

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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2012, 08:49:55 am »
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I dont think the Bain ads ran in CO, plus both campaigns went off the air after Aurora.

When you look at the data, the CO crosstabs are odd. Not only does it have GOP +10 weight, the age breakdown has 38% of 65+ (it was 22% in 2010, which was a GOP wave year). I think it is just an outlier (like Quinnipiac's FL poll from last week).

But put them all in the blender and you get a close race in CO, probably right around the nat'l avg.
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2012, 09:30:22 am »
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The Colorado poll was discredited by Daily Kos, when it was discovered that the poll was almost 40% people over 65.
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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2012, 09:42:40 am »
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As a Obama supporter I find the Colorado numbers disappointing but I will not dismiss them out of hand just because I don't like them. Add them to the mix and it looks like Colorado is closer to a tossup than I thought. Wisconsin and Virginia are right in line with other polling.
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2012, 09:47:06 am »
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As a Obama supporter I find the Colorado numbers disappointing but I will not dismiss them out of hand just because I don't like them. Add them to the mix and it looks like Colorado is closer to a tossup than I thought. Wisconsin and Virginia are right in line with other polling.

Actually, the polls from Wisconsin and Virginia are also a little more Republican than other polls. Quinnipiac isn't exactly known for left-leaning polls. These are the geniuses who had a potential "right-to-work" referendum winning in Ohio.
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« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2012, 10:01:28 am »
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Party id:

CO: R+5
VA: D +7
WI: D +7
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« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2012, 10:03:37 am »
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Party id:

CO: R+5
VA: D +7
WI: D +7

In other words, massive Quinnipiac fail.
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« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2012, 10:16:51 am »
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Good to see some positive signs.
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« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2012, 10:19:32 am »
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The Colorado poll is just wrong, Romney hasn't posted any leads like that in Colorado in any polling, why exactly would that change? Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll.
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« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2012, 10:30:28 am »
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Party id:

CO: R+5
VA: D +7
WI: D +7

In other words, massive Quinnipiac fail.

What should they be?
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krazen1211
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2012, 11:27:43 am »
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Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll.

but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times.




Lol.


Colorado has slightly too many Republicans but Romney would be leading anyway.
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« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2012, 11:33:41 am »
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Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll.

but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times.




Lol.


Colorado has slightly too many Republicans but Romney would be leading anyway.

38% of Colorado poll respondents are over 65...this is a definite outlier. Also, no way Romney is +5 in Colorado when Scott Rasshack puts it tied...Obama +3 or so.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2012, 11:36:45 am »
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Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll.

but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times.




Lol.


Colorado has slightly too many Republicans but Romney would be leading anyway.

38% of Colorado poll respondents are over 65...this is a definite outlier. Also, no way Romney is +5 in Colorado when Scott Rasshack puts it tied...Obama +3 or so.

Try again with actual math. Reducing the number of Republicans by 3-4% won't shift the poll by 8 points.
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« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2012, 11:51:24 am »
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Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll.

but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times.



Lol.


Colorado has slightly too many Republicans but Romney would be leading anyway.

38% of Colorado poll respondents are over 65...this is a definite outlier. Also, no way Romney is +5 in Colorado when Scott Rasshack puts it tied...Obama +3 or so.

Try again with actual math. Reducing the number of Republicans by 3-4% won't shift the poll by 8 points.

Math on a outlier poll is useless.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2012, 12:00:41 pm »
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Math on a outlier poll is useless.

As is, of course, the random arbitrary musings of someone deciding that Obama is leading by 3 points when the polls show otherwise.
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