Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5

[realisticidealist]

Meh. If Obama takes Virginia and Wisconsin, it doesn't matter what Colorado does. That said, this poll feels really wrong.

[True Federalist]

The metric I like to look at when they include it is the "who did you vote for last time" question.

Colorado:
Poll: O+2
Actual: O+9

Virginia:
Poll: O+9
Actual: O+7

Wisconsin:
Poll:O+13
Actual: O+14

Granted, people can move between states, forget who they voted for, or simply lie to the pollster,  But those numbers are another indication that the Colorado result is skewed towards the Republicans since the difference is beyond the MoE for the poll.

If one were to adjust the toplines to have the poll samples conform to actual 2008 results, you'd end up with: CO: O+2, VA: O+2, WI: O+7.

[realisticidealist]

Random factoid: This is the first non-Rasmussen poll in two weeks to show Romney winning a state.

[Invisible Obama]

Polls that skew older also skew Republican and that is the case with this poll.

but I don't think there is a deliberate bias within this poll, party ID is just odd some times.

Lol.


Colorado has slightly too many Republicans but Romney would be leading anyway.

Why do you always quote old posts? Anyway, you aren't proving a point, because I didn't say Quinnipiac deliberately rigged the numbers. You fail, as usual.

[Wiz from Wis in Mass]

Random factoid: This is the first non-Rasmussen poll in two weeks to show Romney winning a state.

You mean swing state

[realisticidealist]

Random factoid: This is the first non-Rasmussen poll in two weeks to show Romney winning a state.

You mean swing state

Going off the database, the last time Romney was ahead in a non-Rasmussen poll happened in a poll conducted on July 26, which I suppose is a day short of two weeks. If you count Missouri as a swing state, July 25, two weeks ago, was the last Romney lead. If not, there's that random Michigan poll on July 23.

[Umengus]

Q is a university pollster and universities are trash pollsters.

But a R+5 in colorado is not impossible compared to 2008 (R+1) and considering that Republicans will turn out better... IMO, the 2008 model will not be the 2012 model...

[Minnesota Mike]

Q is a university pollster and universities are trash pollsters.

But a R+5 in colorado is not impossible compared to 2008 (R+1) and considering that Republicans will turn out better... IMO, the 2008 model will not be the 2012 model...

FWIW Exit polls in 2010 had Dems +5 in Colorado

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/polls/#COS01p1

 

[Lief]

Come on folks. The Colorado poll is obviously bad. Its internals don't make sense, its toplines don't make sense. You're not going to betray the cause by admitting that this poll stinks.

[Governor Scott]

I actually thought that Quinnipiac was one of the more reliable university pollsters.*

*Then again, their 2010 CT polls weren't that great, IIRC.

[Tender Branson]

Yepp Lief, if 2010 is an indicator, the "likely voter polls" which currently show a GOP advantage might as well be D+3, which changes everything. Especially there are polls now and polls after the first week of September ...

[5280/East California]

Some of you guys need to stop fantasizing CO being a very liberal state, it's annoying. We are clearly a competitive state, and will always be like that.

[mondale84]

Some of you guys need to stop fantasizing CO being a very liberal state, it's annoying. We are clearly a competitive state, and will always be like that.

LOL...obvious hack is obvious

[InsaneTrollLogic]

Though not as hackish as saying the GOP is destined to make Colorado back into the right-wing political backwater it was in the late 90s and early 2000s.

[pepper11]

Come on folks. The Colorado poll is obviously bad. Its internals don't make sense, its toplines don't make sense. You're not going to betray the cause by admitting that this poll stinks.

Where was the outrage with the pew poll that had 18 % GOP.

[Senator Sbane]

How many people here actually believed Obama was up by double digits? Only Bandit?

[Lief]

Come on folks. The Colorado poll is obviously bad. Its internals don't make sense, its toplines don't make sense. You're not going to betray the cause by admitting that this poll stinks.

Where was the outrage with the pew poll that had 18 % GOP.

The entire board agreed that poll was a ridiculous outlier with severe structural flaws. Just like this one is.

[backtored]

Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney?

One reason may be the very same reason that Ohio and Michigan are actually swinging back towards the president: Bain.  The whole class warfare business works well against a wealthy, moderate, northeastern Republican among blue-collar independents and even Republicans in the working class burghs of the Midwest.  It's a completely different electorate in Colorado, where the president is extremely unpopular and Romney's suburban politics hit a sweet spot in and around Denver.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Romney win Colorado, and lose most of the other so-called "swing states."

And, I'll add, Colorado has always been more of a right-leaning swing state, anyway.  So perhaps it shouldn't be that surprising after all.

[backtored]

Did the Bain ads even air in Colorado? Thought those were mainly targeted in the rust belt.

We've had plenty of them here in the Denver area.  And they're probably helped Romney rather than hurt him.

[backtored]

Party id:

CO: R+5
VA: D +7
WI: D +7

In other words, massive Quinnipiac fail.

Active voter registration in Colorado is R +5.  Q nailed it.  Colorado is shaping up to be a race very similar to the 2010 Senate race, where the Republican led by a handful for the most of the race, only to be caught from behind at the very end.  The rproblem for the president is that Mitt Romney actually appeals to the same sorts of people that Ken Buck turned off: suburban women.  The fact is that Romney has a clearer path to victory in Colorado than Mr. Obama.

[backtored]

Though not as hackish as saying the GOP is destined to make Colorado back into the right-wing political backwater it was in the late 90s and early 2000s.

Colorado was never the beacon of conservative thought people think it was.  Never.  President Clinton took the state in '92, the same year that Amendment 2 passed.  In 2000 President Bush won by 9 points, but Ralph Nader did quite well, taking votes for Gore, and medical marijuana also passed.  In 2006 Democrats swept everything, but the marriage amendment passed by 10 points, marijuana legalization lost by 20 points, and civil unions lost on the ballot.

The whole liberal narrative is built on the idea that demographics somehow turned a super-red state blue.  That's wrong on two accounts.  First, Colorado has always been a relatively independent state.  Bill Owens was the first Republican governor in a really long time, and the state has a history of ticket-splitting and wild politics.  Second, it's not at all a blue state now.  Republicans have a solid active registration advantage, and the state continues to be an anti-tax haven with strong social conservative elements.  We'll see how things shake out in November, but this poll indicates that Colorado hasn't changed that much at all.

[5280/East California]

Colorado is a politically polarized state much like the nation. The Republican and Democrat parties can be extreme at times, Denver and Boulder are liberal and CO Springs and Highlands Ranch is conservative, which are the hotspots for both parties.

[cinyc]

The metric I like to look at when they include it is the "who did you vote for last time" question.

Colorado:
Poll: O+2
Actual: O+9

Virginia:
Poll: O+9
Actual: O+7

Wisconsin:
Poll:O+13
Actual: O+14

Granted, people can move between states, forget who they voted for, or simply lie to the pollster,  But those numbers are another indication that the Colorado result is skewed towards the Republicans since the difference is beyond the MoE for the poll.

If one were to adjust the toplines to have the poll samples conform to actual 2008 results, you'd end up with: CO: O+2, VA: O+2, WI: O+7.

You can't do that.  Poll samples on the "who did you vote for in the last election" question often don't match the previous results for various reasons - people who voted in the previous election fail the likely voter screen because they aren't as enthusiastic about voting this time or moved in or out of the state or died or have buyer's remorse about who they voted for the last time and lie to pollsters or whatever.  The 2008 electorate isn't the same as the 2012 electorate.

That said, the CO poll seems a bit off.  But I wouldn't doubt a small Romney lead.  Obama is campaigning there today for a reason.   The state is at least close, not some Democratic blowout.

[ajb]

Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney?

One reason may be the very same reason that Ohio and Michigan are actually swinging back towards the president: Bain.  The whole class warfare business works well against a wealthy, moderate, northeastern Republican among blue-collar independents and even Republicans in the working class burghs of the Midwest.  It's a completely different electorate in Colorado, where the president is extremely unpopular and Romney's suburban politics hit a sweet spot in and around Denver.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Romney win Colorado, and lose most of the other so-called "swing states."

And, I'll add, Colorado has always been more of a right-leaning swing state, anyway.  So perhaps it shouldn't be that surprising after all.

Except that Ohio and Michigan aren't actually swinging toward Romney. They've both moved noticeably towards Obama in the past month or so:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

[asexual trans victimologist]

Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney?

One reason may be the very same reason that Ohio and Michigan are actually swinging back towards the president: Bain.  The whole class warfare business works well against a wealthy, moderate, northeastern Republican among blue-collar independents and even Republicans in the working class burghs of the Midwest.  It's a completely different electorate in Colorado, where the president is extremely unpopular and Romney's suburban politics hit a sweet spot in and around Denver.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Romney win Colorado, and lose most of the other so-called "swing states."

And, I'll add, Colorado has always been more of a right-leaning swing state, anyway.  So perhaps it shouldn't be that surprising after all.

Except that Ohio and Michigan aren't actually swinging toward Romney. They've both moved noticeably towards Obama in the past month or so:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/mi/michigan_romney_vs_obama-1811.html

No, you misunderstand, he's admitting that it's working in Ohio and Michigan but saying that it's a different story out in Colorado.