Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 (user search)
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  Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS - WI: Obama +6, VA: Obama +4, CO: Romney +5  (Read 4747 times)
backtored
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« on: August 08, 2012, 03:32:21 PM »

Any particular reason why Colorado is about the only swing state that is (or appears to be) swinging towards Romney?

One reason may be the very same reason that Ohio and Michigan are actually swinging back towards the president: Bain.  The whole class warfare business works well against a wealthy, moderate, northeastern Republican among blue-collar independents and even Republicans in the working class burghs of the Midwest.  It's a completely different electorate in Colorado, where the president is extremely unpopular and Romney's suburban politics hit a sweet spot in and around Denver.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Romney win Colorado, and lose most of the other so-called "swing states."

And, I'll add, Colorado has always been more of a right-leaning swing state, anyway.  So perhaps it shouldn't be that surprising after all.
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backtored
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Posts: 498
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2012, 03:35:00 PM »

Did the Bain ads even air in Colorado? Thought those were mainly targeted in the rust belt.



We've had plenty of them here in the Denver area.  And they're probably helped Romney rather than hurt him.
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backtored
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Posts: 498
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2012, 03:38:15 PM »


Active voter registration in Colorado is R +5.  Q nailed it.  Colorado is shaping up to be a race very similar to the 2010 Senate race, where the Republican led by a handful for the most of the race, only to be caught from behind at the very end.  The rproblem for the president is that Mitt Romney actually appeals to the same sorts of people that Ken Buck turned off: suburban women.  The fact is that Romney has a clearer path to victory in Colorado than Mr. Obama.
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backtored
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Posts: 498
Vatican City State


« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2012, 03:44:56 PM »

Though not as hackish as saying the GOP is destined to make Colorado back into the right-wing political backwater it was in the late 90s and early 2000s.

Colorado was never the beacon of conservative thought people think it was.  Never.  President Clinton took the state in '92, the same year that Amendment 2 passed.  In 2000 President Bush won by 9 points, but Ralph Nader did quite well, taking votes for Gore, and medical marijuana also passed.  In 2006 Democrats swept everything, but the marriage amendment passed by 10 points, marijuana legalization lost by 20 points, and civil unions lost on the ballot.

The whole liberal narrative is built on the idea that demographics somehow turned a super-red state blue.  That's wrong on two accounts.  First, Colorado has always been a relatively independent state.  Bill Owens was the first Republican governor in a really long time, and the state has a history of ticket-splitting and wild politics.  Second, it's not at all a blue state now.  Republicans have a solid active registration advantage, and the state continues to be an anti-tax haven with strong social conservative elements.  We'll see how things shake out in November, but this poll indicates that Colorado hasn't changed that much at all.
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