% Turnout for Voting Age Population?

[Eraserhead]

For comparison:

1960: 63%
1964: 62%
1968: 61%
1972: 55%
1976: 54%
1980: 53%
1984: 53%
1980: 50%
1984: 53%
1988: 50%
1992: 55%
1996: 49%
2000: 51%
2004: 57%
2008: 57%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_the_United_States_presidential_elections

[Likely Voter]

I think its going to be low...51% like 2000

[Eraserhead]

I think its going to be low...51% like 2000

Me too. I'm wondering if it has a shot at falling below '96 personally. I wouldn't bet on it just yet but who knows? It's definitely not touching 2004/08.

[Dereich]

I think its going to be low...51% like 2000

Me too. I'm wondering if it has a shot at falling below '96 personally. I wouldn't bet on it just yet but who knows? It's definitely not touching 2004/08.

Why not 2004? Both have polarizing incumbents despised by their opponents and both have uninspiring challengers.

[Likely Voter]

this year will have an unprecedented negative campaign in both tone and quantity due to superpacs. That kind of ugliness is going to cut turnout as it turns off voters. Plus both candidates have some base issues that will drag down turnout as well...hence my 2000 prediction.

[Eraserhead]

I think its going to be low...51% like 2000

Me too. I'm wondering if it has a shot at falling below '96 personally. I wouldn't bet on it just yet but who knows? It's definitely not touching 2004/08.

Why not 2004? Both have polarizing incumbents despised by their opponents and both have uninspiring challengers.

There is nowhere near the passion on either side that there was in 2004. 2004's turnout was just barely under 2008's. It was the first post-9/11 presidential election and the Iraq War was extremely bloody and divisive at the time.

[Likely Voter]

Oh and lets not forget all those new voter ID laws, voter role purges and reduced or eliminated early voting. That all adds up to less people voting...you know...to save democracy.

[Tender Branson]

For those who have no clue what the 2012 Election Day Voting-Age Population will be:

241 million

...

Which means 51-52% will be a good guess.

[Maxwell]

This such a sorry election that i think it might be below 45%.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Might be <50%

[Eraserhead]

This such a sorry election that i think it might be below 45%.

That'd be hilarious but it won't happen. Obama is still going to turn out a better than average amount of blacks and Romney is still going to turn out a lot of angry white men.

[greenforest32]

I agree it's probably going to be around 51-53%.

Nearly half the country (100+ million voters) aren't going to participate. That says something don't you think?

[milhouse24]

The under 30 turnout will be terrible - probably like 25%

I don't think the Black turnout will be as high as 2008, not as much historical excitement/malaise. 

I secretly think both candidates want turnout to be low for their own advantages.  A High Turnout of energized voters is usually bad news for the Incumbent (Obama).  Because it shows unrest on polarizing national issues. 

Romney wants to a low turnout of Democrats.  Republican voters (Evangelicals, Middle Class adults, Seniors, etc.) are usually more reliable at getting to the voting booth.