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Author Topic: DC Area/Heart+Mind Strategies: Obama leads in DC and MD suburbs, tied in NoVa  (Read 1202 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 08, 2012, 01:50:32 pm »

Editor's Note: The D.C. metro phone survey was conducted among 550 adults age 18 and over, between July 26 and July 29, 2012.

This included representative samples of 200 people in Virginia (Arlington, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford) 250 in Maryland (Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles, Frederick, Montgomery, Prince George's and 100 in D.C.

DC: 83-11 Obama

MD: 65-22 Obama

NoVa: 48-46 Obama

http://www.wtop.com/120/2984147/Obama-Romney-in-NoVa-dead-heat
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2012, 01:55:24 pm »
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Obama's gonna have to do better than that in NoVa.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2012, 01:56:56 pm »
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This poll left out the independent cities in Virginia, where Obama blows the competition away.
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2012, 02:06:21 pm »
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This poll left out the independent cities in Virginia, where Obama blows the competition away.

Yeah that's what I suspected. The poll is highly doubtful.
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« Reply #4 on: August 08, 2012, 02:09:14 pm »
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MOE on 200 is +/- 7%, too.
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Lief
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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2012, 02:10:51 pm »
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Yeah polls of 200 people are basically useless.
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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2012, 02:22:17 pm »
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This poll left out the independent cities in Virginia, where Obama blows the competition away.

Yeah that's what I suspected. The poll is highly doubtful.

It only excludes Fredricksburg, Alexandria and Manassas. Even excluding those cities, you would really expect Obama to at least have a 10 point lead in NOVA. The high margin of error is worth noting though.
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« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2012, 02:26:49 pm »
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There has been quite the liberal push back on poll number today. Must be a changing tide for Romney.
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2012, 02:28:10 pm »
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There has been quite the liberal push back on poll number today. Must be a changing tide for Romney.

Are you trying to be a joke poster?
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« Reply #9 on: August 08, 2012, 02:33:46 pm »
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There has been quite the liberal push back on poll number today. Must be a changing tide for Romney.

Are you trying to be a joke poster?

Have you seen the thread on the colorado poll with Romney ahead? Ever dem on the board is trashing it.  There were no such outcries when pew had a national pol with GOP at 18%.
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« Reply #10 on: August 08, 2012, 02:35:07 pm »
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There has been quite the liberal push back on poll number today. Must be a changing tide for Romney.

Are you trying to be a joke poster?

He is a joke poster.





Also, LOL at outfits that poll counties and "regions"
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« Reply #11 on: August 08, 2012, 02:53:35 pm »
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It only excludes Fredricksburg, Alexandria and Manassas. Even excluding those cities, you would really expect Obama to at least have a 10 point lead in NOVA. The high margin of error is worth noting though.

Alexandria is quite large, and the area has more independent cities than just those 3.
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« Reply #12 on: August 08, 2012, 03:17:22 pm »
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There has been quite the liberal push back on poll number today. Must be a changing tide for Romney.

Are you trying to be a joke poster?

Have you seen the thread on the colorado poll with Romney ahead? Ever dem on the board is trashing it.  There were no such outcries when pew had a national pol with GOP at 18%.

Lolno. Try again:
Junk.

Wasn't Pew ranked as the worst pollster on Nate Silver's house effect thing?
No... Obama is probably 2-3% ahead and has been for the last 3 months...
If only.
Sample includes 32% Dem, 18% GOP

Biases are slowly starting to become more blatant.

This isn't even bias, it has to be a bad joke...
This isn't a good poll.

krazen's 'the Democrats are the party of =/=well-off white establishment, and this is somehow a bad thing and also they are somehow exclusively so' narrative isn't good either, but we shouldn't mistake that for the poll being good.
Junk Poll!

What a terrible day, I just agreed with krazen Sad

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« Reply #13 on: August 08, 2012, 03:18:49 pm »
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There has been quite the liberal push back on poll number today. Must be a changing tide for Romney.

Are you trying to be a joke poster?

Have you seen the thread on the colorado poll with Romney ahead? Ever dem on the board is trashing it.  There were no such outcries when pew had a national pol with GOP at 18%.

As a Person just pointed out, the only one who said that poll was even remotely plausible was the troll Bandit who typically claims to think normal polls are skewed roughly 10 points too Republican.

You are an idiot or a troll. Either way, you've been added to my ignore list.  (I used to have a short ignore list, then 2012 happened.)
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2012, 03:23:01 pm »
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Anyway, should we consider adding the DC subsample to the database?  Granted, a 10% MoE poll in normal circumstances shouldn't be entered, but we're not likely to get many, if any, better polls for DC.
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« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2012, 03:25:23 pm »
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Anyway, should we consider adding the DC subsample to the database?  Granted, a 10% MoE poll in normal circumstances shouldn't be entered, but we're not likely to get many, if any, better polls for DC.

Do we really need DC polls in the database?
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« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2012, 03:33:51 pm »
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Anyway, should we consider adding the DC subsample to the database?  Granted, a 10% MoE poll in normal circumstances shouldn't be entered, but we're not likely to get many, if any, better polls for DC.

Do we really need DC polls in the database?

It might help those wondering whether to put Obama the 80% decile or the 90% decile in their predictions.

Anyway, entered:
http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1120120729106
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« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2012, 06:57:28 pm »
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It only excludes Fredricksburg, Alexandria and Manassas. Even excluding those cities, you would really expect Obama to at least have a 10 point lead in NOVA. The high margin of error is worth noting though.

Alexandria is quite large, and the area has more independent cities than just those 3.

Falls Church and Fairfax have 14 people in them.  Ain't gonna help much

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This is such a weird poll.  Who just polls a metro area?  Anne Arundel and Calvert are not DC metro, neither is Spotsylvania
« Last Edit: August 08, 2012, 07:09:11 pm by timothyinMD »Logged
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« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2012, 08:01:23 pm »
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Why are we so sure this poll excludes the independent cities?  Simply because the editor's note did not laboriously list them?  I don't think so. And when the poll was conducted, if someone said they were from Alexandria, the poll would exclude them, when purporting to poll NOVA? Really?  Please connect the dots guys. It seems ludicrous to me. Sure maybe the pollsters are nutters, but you guys will need a smoking gun to make your case here, like some admission from them that that is exactly what they did, because they are in fact nuts. Thank you.
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« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2012, 08:03:16 pm »
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Why are we so sure this poll excludes the independent cities?  Simply because the editor's note did not laboriously list them?  I don't think so. And when the poll was conducted, if someone said they were from Alexandria, the poll would exclude them, when purporting to poll NOVA? Really?  Please connect the dots guys. It seems ludicrous to me. Sure maybe the pollsters are nutters, but you guys will need a smoking gun to make your case here, like some admission from them that that is exactly what they did, because they are in fact nuts. Thank you.

It doesn't explain the inclusion on rural areas in the Maryland part.
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« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2012, 09:45:15 pm »
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Why are we so sure this poll excludes the independent cities?  Simply because the editor's note did not laboriously list them?  I don't think so. And when the poll was conducted, if someone said they were from Alexandria, the poll would exclude them, when purporting to poll NOVA? Really?  Please connect the dots guys. It seems ludicrous to me. Sure maybe the pollsters are nutters, but you guys will need a smoking gun to make your case here, like some admission from them that that is exactly what they did, because they are in fact nuts. Thank you.

This poll sucks, move along.
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2012, 01:46:06 pm »
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Why are we so sure this poll excludes the independent cities?  Simply because the editor's note did not laboriously list them?  I don't think so. And when the poll was conducted, if someone said they were from Alexandria, the poll would exclude them, when purporting to poll NOVA? Really?  Please connect the dots guys. It seems ludicrous to me. Sure maybe the pollsters are nutters, but you guys will need a smoking gun to make your case here, like some admission from them that that is exactly what they did, because they are in fact nuts. Thank you.

The story "laboriously" noted the seven counties of NoVa they polled. If you want to argue that the cities were included, the burden of proof is on you.
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4. Don't divide polls into "right" and "wrong" because the toplines differ
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« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2012, 03:42:08 pm »
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Why are we so sure this poll excludes the independent cities?  Simply because the editor's note did not laboriously list them?  I don't think so. And when the poll was conducted, if someone said they were from Alexandria, the poll would exclude them, when purporting to poll NOVA? Really?  Please connect the dots guys. It seems ludicrous to me. Sure maybe the pollsters are nutters, but you guys will need a smoking gun to make your case here, like some admission from them that that is exactly what they did, because they are in fact nuts. Thank you.

The story "laboriously" noted the seven counties of NoVa they polled. If you want to argue that the cities were included, the burden of proof is on you.

Really?  If that is your ruling, I think I am going to have to file a writ of mandamus with the appellate court.

Circumstantial evidence just isn't your thing is it?  Hi, I am calling for the Perfect Polling People ("PPP") to ask if you plan to vote for POTUS this year, and if so for whom, and by the way, please tell me also where you live. I live in Alexandria. Oh, you live in Alexandria? I feel so sorry for you. No, we don't want your worthless little opinion, because you live in an independent city, and those suck, and if we had our way, you would not be able to vote at all. Have a nice day.
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2012, 03:44:31 pm »
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I agree with Torie.  The idea that they explicitly ignored the independent cities, or somehow forgot to include them, seems unrealistic, even if the copy is vague.
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« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2012, 05:22:41 pm »
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I emailed the author of the story for a clarification, specifically asking if Alexndria, Fredericksburg, etc. had been polled. She repeated the list of counties, and said "Those are the designated areas we are told where the polling took place."

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Seven Easy Rules for Reading Polls

1. Don't argue with the numbers because they're not telling you what you want to hear
2. Don't ascribe to bias or incompetence that which can be explained by random error
3. Don't use the phrase "statistical tie" unless the horse-race numbers are actually tied
4. Don't divide polls into "right" and "wrong" because the toplines differ
5. Don't assume that house effects are set in stone
6. Don't overreact to any single poll
7. Party ID is for amateurs
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