Am I the only one who hates the lack of polling in safe states? (user search)
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  Am I the only one who hates the lack of polling in safe states? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Am I the only one who hates the lack of polling in safe states?  (Read 2086 times)
Zioneer
PioneerProgress
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,451
United States


« on: August 08, 2012, 05:22:34 PM »

It's frustrating to me that states that are considered "safe" never get polled for almost any election. I understand that it's a bit of a waste of money because you know 3/4s of the time who will win, but pollsters won't even check to let us know by how much a candidate of the "safe" party is winning, or if there's a particular event that changes the whole race.

What I guess I'm saying is that I'd like to be polled more here in Utah, and I'd like to have a shorter update than 4-6 months between polls. The pollsters refuse to poll any race besides the Utah 4th congressional, and I'd like them to actually try polling, if only for the principle of the thing. Where's the gubernatorial polls? Where's the senatorial polls? Heck, the SL County Mayoral race is supposed to be rather close for Utah and I haven't seen any polls since before the primary!
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Zioneer
PioneerProgress
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,451
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2012, 09:44:03 PM »

     Occasional updates would be nice. Mississippi has a nasty tendency to get polled about once per cycle.

I don't think there's ever more than one poll for any Utah election besides the ones with Jim Matheson in them.
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Zioneer
PioneerProgress
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,451
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2012, 12:44:24 PM »

The problem with polling in safe states is finding someone to pay for the poll. Polls are paid for by campaigns or by the media. Campaign polls for districts in safe states happen all the time, but only get covered when the campaign lets the info out. Those polls will often include the top of ticket races to help the campaign judge coattails and crossovers. Media polls look for the story so they make focus only on a region or set of competitive districts that will interest their audience. They may also include the top race for comparison with the local districts featured in the story.

The bottom line is that polls are expensive and that investment has to be worth something to someone to commission the poll.

Well yes, but can't they even just do basic, cheap polling? Part of the reason safe states are safe are because pollsters fulfill their own prophecies by not polling the states, so that possible strong donors and candidates never get in because they assume that it's a done deal, and after that happens, the pollsters go "hey it's safe, no need to poll".

It's incredibly frustrating.
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