Race as of today

[zorkpolitics]

Looking at polling here is what I see as the state of the race as of today based on states where Romney has been tied or in the lead at least twice in the past month or so:
Obama  288
Romney 250

Since most undecided have a negative opinion of Obama (so says Jay Cost) and are really just waiting for a good reason to vote for Romney, any state where Obama is polling below 48% will, I predict vote for Romney. Here is my prediction for Nov 6:
Obama  271
Romney 267

So Romney needs to win one more state, based on current polling there are two states where Obama is polling below 49%: MI (48.3) and OH (48.3).   

[Torie]

Not a bad analysis. Would that politics be such an exact science. But alas it isn't. So the odds are quite high that you will be wrong. 

[Supersonic]

I can broadly agree with this analysis.

[Thomas D]

Speaking of this, I made this map over a year ago and I haven't updated because I wouldn't flip a single state.




https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2012/pred.php?action=indpred&id=38

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, the continued insistence of Americans that it exists - that it is a 'thing' - is really rather telling about the structure of society in the U.S. Which, in turn, has a major impact on political life.

[Lief 🗽]

Is every Republican of this forum going to make a thread where they make an EV map using the most pro-Romney polls plus some more faulty assumptions that increased Romney's advantage further?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'm a Republican and this is what it would probably look like today:

Obama- 332
Romney- 206

[Brittain33]

You're hanging a lot on one poll showing Romney with a lead in Colorado with an electorate that looks like the viewership for Matlock.

[Eraserhead]

Jay Cost is a total hack. Always has been.

[Likely Voter]

I'm a Republican and this is what it would probably look like today:

Obama- 332
Romney- 206

That is pretty much it. There was a consensus on my earlier thread that the race is Obama +2-3.  If the race tightens up to something closer to a tie, then FL, IA, VA and CO drop off (probably in that order) Giving Obama 275. If Romney pulls ahead then NH, OH and NV go his way putting him ahead.

Again, as I noted before, Romney's problem in a close race is OH. It is giving Obama a cushion at this point that could lead to a PV/EV split.

[Torie]

Is every Republican of this forum going to make a thread where they make an EV map using the most pro-Romney polls plus some more faulty assumptions that increased Romney's advantage further?

No.  In any event, bear in mind that the map that you are traducing is a November prediction, not a if the vote were today prediction. Being tied to the mast by current polls as to what will happen three months hence may not be the best way to see into the crystal ball.

[muon2]

Is every Republican of this forum going to make a thread where they make an EV map using the most pro-Romney polls plus some more faulty assumptions that increased Romney's advantage further?

No.  In any event, bear in mind that the map that you are traducing is a November prediction, not a if the vote were today prediction. Being tied to the mast by current polls as to what will happen three months hence may not be the best way to see into the crystal ball.

Indeed, the movement or lack thereof in the couple weeks following conventions can generate a quite different perception than the polls of august.

[California8429]

Romney actually had a chance in Iowa until he started a fight and backed down on wind credits. Seriously, the idiotic team he has. Who says that when they don't have to and if you're going to say it look into Iowa's eyes and say hey this is a failed system we have here. Let's save money, I'm being honest. Instead of digs himself into the worst hole you could and then Brandstad is saying we need to educate him. This is a disaster.

[7,052,770]

Nate Silver's nowcast gives Obama an average of 301.9 electoral votes if the election were held today and 303.6 for the November projection.  Until someone else dethrones him as the foremost expert, deviating from his numbers is foolish.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Nate Silver's nowcast gives Obama an average of 301.9 electoral votes if the election were held today and 303.6 for the November projection.  Until someone else dethrones him as the foremost expert, deviating from his numbers is foolish.

I say 303 if the election were today, but nobody is in a position to predict what will happen on Election Day.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I just don't see a viable path to 270 for Romney unless he wins Ohio, Florida, AND Virginia, and it's hard for me to see him winning all three, or even two of them.

Come to think of it, Rick Scott and John Kasich are probably the two individuals most responsible for Romney's current woes. If not for those two, he'd almost certainly be leading in Florida and would very likely be leading in Ohio.

[mondale84]

Obama: 303
Romney: 206

Florida is on the knife's edge, totally unsure how it would go if the election were today.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I just don't see a viable path to 270 for Romney unless he wins Ohio, Florida, AND Virginia, and it's hard for me to see him winning all three, or even two of them.

Come to think of it, Rick Scott and John Kasich are probably the two individuals most responsible for Romney's current woes. If not for those two, he'd almost certainly be leading in Florida and would very likely be leading in Ohio.

I don't think that state-level officials have much effect on national presidential campaigns, with the possible exception of Ford carrying New Jersey in 1976.  The articles I've read suggest that the real reason is that most people don't see Romney as likable yet.  I think Romney could get to 270 easily, although if he loses all three of those states, it certainly becomes much harder for him to do that.