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| | | |-+  CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45
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Author Topic: CNN/ORC Poll: Obama 52; Romney 45  (Read 992 times)
Clinton1996
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« on: August 09, 2012, 04:02:44 pm »
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President Obama has opened up a 7 point lead nationally, up from 3 points a month ago. He now leads among women, men, and independents.

Romney's unfavorabilities have jumped dramatically, contributing to his loss of ground.

And on the question of the economy, Obama leads 48-45. Romney was at 50 in July.

Presidential Approval is at 49-48.

Article:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/09/cnn-poll-obama-holds-7-point-lead-over-romney/

Crosstabs:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/08/09/rel7b3.pdf
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old timey villain
cope1989
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« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2012, 04:15:57 pm »
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hmm, perhaps that Pew poll wasn't an outlier...
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Can't we all just get along?
Clinton1996
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« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2012, 04:24:09 pm »
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hmm, perhaps that Pew poll wasn't an outlier...
And Reuters/Ipsos also had him up by 7 earlier this week.
Kinda weird that he's ahead by 6 among men though. Anyone else?
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2012, 04:24:40 pm »
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hmm, perhaps that Pew poll wasn't an outlier...

Bigger outlier, The Pew Poll or the Rasmussen daily tracker?
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Emperor Scott
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2012, 04:25:27 pm »
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So maybe the consensus is that the last jobs report was positive?

CNN usually has good polls, IIRC.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2012, 04:35:40 pm »
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LOL another RV and D oversampled poll and the only poll for a long time where Obama wins the Indy votes LOL again - from CNN this time:

PRESIDENT NATIONAL (CNN/ORC): Obama: 50/47 my numbers: 47.4/52.5
Barack Obama (D-inc) 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 45%
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 51/48.9
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2012, 04:38:35 pm »
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LOL another RV and D oversampled poll and the only poll for a long time where Obama wins the Indy votes LOL again - from CNN this time:

PRESIDENT NATIONAL (CNN/ORC): Obama: 50/47 my numbers: 47.4/52.5
Barack Obama (D-inc) 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 45%
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 51/48.9


Your Numbers? So we all get to make up our own numbers now?

Obama 60
Romney 35

Landslide!
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2012, 05:04:56 pm »
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No Minnesota mike

I am doing this for a several year now and have a impressive record I nailed the race in 2004 every race in 2006 every race (except MO) in 2008 and every race in 2010 (except WA)

you can follow my weekly electoral map on facebook:
 http://www.facebook.com/groups/185054414852195/

It`s all about Party ID!! and it should be a LV and not a RV!
It`s the only national poll showing Obama winning the Indy vote
but even with that scenario and the right Party ID he would lose!
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2012, 05:14:18 pm »
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No Minnesota mike

I am doing this for a several year now and have a impressive record I nailed the race in 2004 every race in 2006 every race (except MO) in 2008 and every race in 2010 (except WA)

you can follow my weekly electoral map on facebook:
 http://www.facebook.com/groups/185054414852195/

It`s all about Party ID!! and it should be a LV and not a RV!
It`s the only national poll showing Obama winning the Indy vote
but even with that scenario and the right Party ID he would lose!

No offense Ben but by election day 90% of the people here could pick the winner in almost every race. There are very few true tossups.  A quick look at the RCP polling averages or 538 and everyone is an expert.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2012, 05:17:59 pm »
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LOL another RV and D oversampled poll and the only poll for a long time where Obama wins the Indy votes LOL again - from CNN this time:

PRESIDENT NATIONAL (CNN/ORC): Obama: 50/47 my numbers: 47.4/52.5
Barack Obama (D-inc) 52%
Mitt Romney (R) 45%
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 51/48.9


Unless you are a pollster, you can't really have your own numbers.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2012, 05:20:31 pm »
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yes maybe but not with the correct numbers and in 2004 many pllsters said Kerrry would be the winner 2006%2008 was easy for President but not the Governor and Senate races!

Problem this year is most polsters using the same party ID like it was 2008
won`t happen. In the best case for the Dems it will be D+2! For now its R+1
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2012, 05:21:38 pm »
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Dr. Scholl why not? OK I am the Benny pollster LOL

I dont get paid with that right but I build it!
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Emperor Scott
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2012, 05:24:55 pm »
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yes maybe but not with the correct numbers and in 2004 many pllsters said Kerrry would be the winner 2006%2008 was easy for President but not the Governor and Senate races!

Problem this year is most polsters using the same party ID like it was 2008
won`t happen. In the best case for the Dems it will be D+2! For now its R+1

You really need to brush up on your writing skills, because I can't understand a word you're saying.  That aside, producing random numbers with stuff that you made up is really unprofessional.  Where's the evidence that turnout will be R+1 this year?
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Herman Cain's Gold Chain
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2012, 05:28:29 pm »
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Clearly the Bain attacks have been a massive failure. Obama now leads Romeny by 4.4 points in the RCP polls average, his largest lead since April.
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(Part of the 2012 Election Throwback Series)
Invisible Obama
DrScholl
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2012, 05:28:37 pm »
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Dr. Scholl why not? OK I am the Benny pollster LOL

I dont get paid with that right but I build it!

Because you have no real data, but only your opinion on what you would like the numbers to say.
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Craigo
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2012, 05:29:22 pm »
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It appears that you have a model, not "numbers." A modeler may decide to weight different poll results for different reasons, but just deciding that turnout will look a certain way and twisting actual poll results to fit that is completely backwards and unprofessional.
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Seven Easy Rules for Reading Polls

1. Don't argue with the numbers because they're not telling you what you want to hear
2. Don't ascribe to bias or incompetence that which can be explained by random error
3. Don't use the phrase "statistical tie" unless the horse-race numbers are actually tied
4. Don't divide polls into "right" and "wrong" because the toplines differ
5. Don't assume that house effects are set in stone
6. Don't overreact to any single poll
7. Party ID is for amateurs
Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2012, 05:30:58 pm »
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It appears that you have a model, not "numbers." A modeler may decide to weight different poll results for different reasons, but just deciding that turnout will look a certain way and twisting actual poll results to fit that is completely backwards and unprofessional.

What he said.
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Beet
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« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2012, 05:35:10 pm »
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Well I'm interested (for now). What exactly are the parameters of your model?

I clicked on the facebook link and see a part of the map, but what criteria do you use to construct the map?
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2012, 05:55:04 pm »
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Dr. Scholl my data r the crosstabs of the pollsters and the party ID of Rasmussen which is the bets in the country! i think on election day it will be tied but from today it`s R+1
the same for the states poll of course!
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Beet
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2012, 05:57:41 pm »
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Dr. Scholl my data r the crosstabs of the pollsters and the party ID of Rasmussen which is the bets in the country! i think on election day it will be tied but from today it`s R+1
the same for the states poll of course!

What basis do you use to say Rasmussen is the 'best in the country'?
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Craigo
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« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2012, 06:03:34 pm »
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Dr. Scholl my data r the crosstabs of the pollsters and the party ID of Rasmussen which is the bets in the country! i think on election day it will be tied but from today it`s R+1
the same for the states poll of course!


Nate Silver on Nov. 4, 2010:  

"Rasmussen Reports Were biased and inaccurate." They had an average error of 5.5 points during that cycle.

Even if they had done well, it's simply not smart to rely so heavily on one source of data.
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Seven Easy Rules for Reading Polls

1. Don't argue with the numbers because they're not telling you what you want to hear
2. Don't ascribe to bias or incompetence that which can be explained by random error
3. Don't use the phrase "statistical tie" unless the horse-race numbers are actually tied
4. Don't divide polls into "right" and "wrong" because the toplines differ
5. Don't assume that house effects are set in stone
6. Don't overreact to any single poll
7. Party ID is for amateurs
Ben Romney
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2012, 06:08:07 pm »
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Beet
Rasmussen nailed the party iD in 2004+2006+2008 and 2010 and he nailed since 2004 the national results. His state b state polls are terrible sometimes but on the national level Party ID and presidential race he`s the best!!!
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Senator Griffin (LAB-NB)
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« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2012, 06:26:14 pm »
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^^^

This is the same guy who earlier in the year posted a fake poll (one "made" by himself) and tried to pass it off as if it were legitimately conducted by a real pollster.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2012, 06:30:27 pm »
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not true it was a joke of a friend of mine and i was falling in. not my fault!
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Senator Griffin (LAB-NB)
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2012, 06:32:45 pm »
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not true it was a joke of a friend of mine and i was falling in. not my fault!

So perhaps you could then explain how such an esteemed pollster as yourself could fall for something that virtually everybody else identified as BS instantly?
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