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Author Topic: Fox News: Obama 49 Romney 40  (Read 949 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« on: August 09, 2012, 05:21:19 pm »
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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/
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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: August 09, 2012, 05:22:10 pm »
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Ouch.
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Craigo
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« Reply #2 on: August 09, 2012, 05:24:01 pm »
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The folks in that Pew thread look pretty silly now.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2012, 05:39:09 pm by Craigo »Logged
Seven Easy Rules for Reading Polls

1. Don't argue with the numbers because they're not telling you what you want to hear
2. Don't ascribe to bias or incompetence that which can be explained by random error
3. Don't use the phrase "statistical tie" unless the horse-race numbers are actually tied
4. Don't divide polls into "right" and "wrong" because the toplines differ
5. Don't assume that house effects are set in stone
6. Don't overreact to any single poll
7. Party ID is for amateurs
Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: August 09, 2012, 05:38:33 pm »
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If only the Obama campaign had listened to David Gergen and Cory Booker.
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Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
Lief
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« Reply #4 on: August 09, 2012, 05:40:25 pm »
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These are all outliers, folks. Something something too many Democrats sampled.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #5 on: August 09, 2012, 05:45:44 pm »
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but Dick Morris said that ROmney was turning things around...
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #6 on: August 09, 2012, 05:47:34 pm »
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and another laughable (D+9) poll from FOX: Obama: 49/46 my numbers:44.8/52.7

Obama: 49% Romney 40%
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 49.8/44.5

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/
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Craigo
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2012, 05:49:36 pm »
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Quote from: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:47:34 pm
and another laughable (D+9) poll from FOX: Obama: 49/46 my numbers:44.8/52.7

Obama: 49% Romney 40%
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 49.

Uh huh.

What's your firm's response rate? What proportion of respondents are mobile vs. landline? Sample size?
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Seven Easy Rules for Reading Polls

1. Don't argue with the numbers because they're not telling you what you want to hear
2. Don't ascribe to bias or incompetence that which can be explained by random error
3. Don't use the phrase "statistical tie" unless the horse-race numbers are actually tied
4. Don't divide polls into "right" and "wrong" because the toplines differ
5. Don't assume that house effects are set in stone
6. Don't overreact to any single poll
7. Party ID is for amateurs
ajb
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2012, 05:49:51 pm »
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Quote from: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:47:34 pm
and another laughable (D+9) poll from FOX: Obama: 49/46 my numbers:44.8/52.7

Obama: 49% Romney 40%
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 49.8/44.5

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/
Interesting comments from the Republican pollster who jointly conducts the FOX poll, touching partly on the partisan ID question:

“The events of the past two weeks appear to have energized Democratic voters a bit," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News poll with Democratic pollster Chris Anderson. “But perhaps more critically, Romney’s support among independents has declined. The Obama campaign has -- at least in the short-term -- succeeded in raising questions about Romney’s fitness to govern and in making this less of a referendum and more of a choice election."

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-obama-lead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/#ixzz235lgtKKi
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opebo
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2012, 05:51:29 pm »
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Quote from: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:47:34 pm
and another laughable (D+9) poll from FOX: Obama: 49/46 my numbers:44.8/52.7

Obama: 49% Romney 40%
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 49.8/44.5

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/

Ben, you're not as credible as FOX news.
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Quote from: GM Griffin on May 11, 2013, 11:43:51 pm
opebo is awesome.

Quote from: ?????????? on April 22, 2005, 03:24:06 pm
You are a peice of trash and you disgust me you ignorant louse.
Governor NVGonzalez
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2012, 05:52:37 pm »
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Quote from: opebo on August 09, 2012, 05:51:29 pm
Quote from: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:47:34 pm
and another laughable (D+9) poll from FOX: Obama: 49/46 my numbers:44.8/52.7

Obama: 49% Romney 40%
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 49.8/44.5

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/

Ben, you're not as credible as FOX news.

Ouch...
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Quote from: A Serious King™ on July 26, 2011, 11:52:55 am
Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
argentarius
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2012, 05:54:09 pm »
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Does anyone here think the election day ID will be close to D+9? If you do, believe this poll. If not, put it in with the Colorado poll.
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Governor Scott
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2012, 05:54:57 pm »
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Quote from: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:47:34 pm
and another laughable (D+9) poll from FOX: Obama: 49/46 my numbers:44.8/52.7

Obama: 49% Romney 40%
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 49.8/44.5

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/08/09/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/

Stop.
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ajb
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« Reply #13 on: August 09, 2012, 05:59:30 pm »
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This was true when you said it about the CNN poll earlier today. It's obviously not true now.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2012, 10:16:11 am by Sen. Big DaddyTX »Logged
Ben Romney
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« Reply #14 on: August 09, 2012, 06:02:22 pm »
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Their last poll was D+5(still to high) now they changed to D+9 in 2008 it was D+7 who believe that 2012 will be a better election year as 2008?Huh I DON`T!!!!
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I was anti-Obama before it was cool
realisticidealist
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« Reply #15 on: August 09, 2012, 06:04:37 pm »
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A poster named Hillary2012 and has a username with Romney in it doesn't like Obama's chances. He sounds very objective in this matter.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #16 on: August 09, 2012, 06:07:27 pm »
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Quote from: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:47:34 pm
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 49.8/44.5

I didn't know that some gay creep in Germany had his own polling company operating in the US.
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Ben Romney
Hillary2012
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« Reply #17 on: August 09, 2012, 06:09:53 pm »
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I am a member of the Demcrats Abroad by the way
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I was anti-Obama before it was cool
Craigo
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« Reply #18 on: August 09, 2012, 06:14:56 pm »
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Quote from: Hashemite on August 09, 2012, 06:07:27 pm
Quote from: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 05:47:34 pm
my numbers: Romney/Obama: 49.8/44.5

I didn't know that some gay creep in Germany had his own polling company operating in the US.

I disagree pretty strongly with what he's claiming, but there's no need to get so personal.
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Seven Easy Rules for Reading Polls

1. Don't argue with the numbers because they're not telling you what you want to hear
2. Don't ascribe to bias or incompetence that which can be explained by random error
3. Don't use the phrase "statistical tie" unless the horse-race numbers are actually tied
4. Don't divide polls into "right" and "wrong" because the toplines differ
5. Don't assume that house effects are set in stone
6. Don't overreact to any single poll
7. Party ID is for amateurs
Ben Romney
Hillary2012
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« Reply #19 on: August 09, 2012, 06:15:15 pm »
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FOX undersampled the Indys
who think it will be 20I only??
D+9 is laughable
and to think Romney would get only 30% of the Indys is wishfulthinking too
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I was anti-Obama before it was cool
All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.
Eraserhead
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« Reply #20 on: August 09, 2012, 06:20:04 pm »
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Quote from: Ben Romney on August 09, 2012, 06:15:15 pm
FOX undersampled the Indys
who think it will be 20I only??
D+9 is laughable
and to think Romney would get only 30% of the Indys is wishfulthinking too

Don't cry about it too much now, guy. I'm sure Hillaryis44 has plenty of room for you to post your conspiracies.
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #21 on: August 09, 2012, 07:00:49 pm »
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Do people really believe CNN and Fox are biased towards Obama? Ok Someone can claim NBC
Is due to primetime Progressive hosts.

and someone who claims to be hillary clinton supporter.Obama made Hillary his secretary of state.
Bill Clinton Is one of DNC top Speakers.
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Governor Scott
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« Reply #22 on: August 09, 2012, 08:03:05 pm »
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I just love this.  Not only are people flat out denying polls they don't like, but now they're actually making up numbers and claiming them to be more accurate than what all the other polls say?  Wow, there are going to be some teary faces this November...

But don't worry, I'm sure the real margin after Election Day will be dismissed as an "outlier," using this new logic. Tongue
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2012, 08:48:21 pm »
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So if you swing the partisan compositing D+5 Obama grows by 5!?  Shocking!!?

This polls a joke
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Senator MaxQue
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« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2012, 09:06:24 pm »
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Quote from: timothyinMD on August 09, 2012, 08:48:21 pm
So if you swing the partisan compositing D+5 Obama grows by 5!?  Shocking!!?

This polls a joke

You're right, Fox News is a joke.
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