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Author Topic: AARP poll of older NV voters: Romney and Obama tied  (Read 709 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 10, 2012, 12:33:42 am »

They also polled other swing state olds, but I can only find the results for NV:

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The survey also focused on Nevada, where 408 voters aged 50 and older were polled. The Nevada results have a margin of error of plus/minus 4.9 percentage points.

Nevada is one of several battleground states expected to play a major role in the presidential race.

The surveys looked at five other battleground states: Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, as well as African Americans and Hispanics aged 50 and older.

The poll results show Nevada voters aged 50 and over are tied in their preference for president, with 46 percent each for President Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney and 8 percent not sure.

http://www.lahontanvalleynews.com/article/20120809/NEWS/120809906/1087&ParentProfile=1045

The 2008 CNN Nevada Exit Poll says that McCain won the 50+ crowd by 49-48.
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Scott
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« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2012, 12:37:38 am »
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Are all swing state olds this, well, swingy in comparison to the national average?

EDIT: A more appropriate question would be, are olds not very competitive anywhere else? Tongue
« Last Edit: August 10, 2012, 12:40:57 am by Senator Scott »Logged
Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2012, 12:47:11 am »

I've now also found the FL poll results of the 50+ crowd:

46-44 for Romney

2008 Exit Poll was 50-48 for Obama

http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2012/aug/09/floridians-50-and-older-anxious-about-retirement

Also:

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The national poll registered a dead heat at 45 percent each.

CNN National Exit Poll was 51-48 for McCain.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2012, 12:58:25 am »
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Not good news for Romney.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2012, 12:59:10 am »

Now I've found the full results:

CO (425 voters age 50 and over): 52-41 Romney
FL: (503 voters age 50 and over): 46-44 Romney
NV: (408 voters age 50 and over): 46-46
OH: (453 voters age 50 and over): 45-45
VA: (434 voters age 50 and over): 46-45 Romney
WI: (426 voters age 50 and over): 52-39 Obama

http://www.aarp.org/politics-society/government-elections/info-08-2012/aarp-2012-voter-survey.html

It takes a while to calculate the 50+ Exit Poll results, because it doesn't show 50+ crosstabs, but only 50-64 and 65 and older, so I have to calculate it for every state ...
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True Federalist
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« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2012, 01:01:00 am »
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Are these generic olds or AARP olds?  The latter would be expected to tilt Democratic somewhat compared to generic olds.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2012, 01:04:52 am »

True Federalist: They are regular olds, not AARP olds.

BTW:

CO 50+ was 55-43 for Obama, according to the Exit Poll, which means a big shift to Romney.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2012, 01:09:41 am »

OH 50+ was 50-49 for Obama, so no big changes there.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2012, 01:12:36 am »

VA 50+ was also 50-49 for Obama, also no big changes compared with the poll.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2012, 01:18:44 am »

WI 50+ was 55-44 for Obama, which also represents not a big difference.

The only big shift among these 6 swing states olds was in Colorado.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: August 10, 2012, 01:27:03 am »

The only big shift among these 6 swing states olds was in Colorado.

The Colorado result is roughly in line with the crosstabs from the Quinnipiac poll, which had Romney ahead by about 10-12 among the 50+ crowd and 5% overall.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: August 10, 2012, 01:52:10 am »
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Hmm, maybe CO really is reverting back to its old Republican ways. It did go for Clinton in '92, only to reject him in '96 despite Clinton winning by a larger margin overall. Of course, that had more to do with Perot becoming less of a factor than anything else.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #12 on: August 10, 2012, 02:00:27 am »
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I think my mother was polled for this! She told me that she told AARP that Medicare/Social Security needs to be overhauled/downsized (even though she is a member and a dem she recognizes that the younger generations are currently being fleeced).
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2012, 09:53:06 am »
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I mean, I wonder why the eldery are going so far to the right in Colorado. The rest of the demography is about where it was, right? Has there been a growing need there to "want their social security money back"?

...and a lot of the Colorado natives are older. They tend to be no different than Wyoming or Nebraska natives.

I mean, even in the PPP poll, where Obama is up by 6, the eldery HATE Obama. He only has 41% approval rating and is losing to Romney by 3 points amongst those 46-65 and 11 points amongst those 65 and over. That would be like Romney winning by like 8 points amongst those 50+ in a poll that has him down by 6.
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« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2012, 11:28:14 am »
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Colorado Social Conservatives are likely infuriated by recent policy shifts in the obama administration.
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2012, 01:44:07 pm »
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If Romney can't win olds, he can't win the state.
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They call me PR
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« Reply #16 on: August 10, 2012, 01:50:21 pm »
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Colorado Social Conservatives are likely infuriated by recent policy shifts in the obama administration.

There aren't that many Colorado Social Conservatives (not enough to win the state).
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« Reply #17 on: August 10, 2012, 02:24:31 pm »
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Colorado Social Conservatives are likely infuriated by recent policy shifts in the obama administration.

There aren't that many Colorado Social Conservatives (not enough to win the state).

Colorado has plenty of social conservatives (a lot of socially conservative organizations are based there, and the Colorado Springs area is very Fundie), but in recent elections it hasn't been enough for Republicans to win.
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« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2012, 02:28:48 pm »
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Colorado Social Conservatives are likely infuriated by recent policy shifts in the obama administration.

There aren't that many Colorado Social Conservatives (not enough to win the state).

Colorado has plenty of social conservatives (a lot of socially conservative organizations are based there, and the Colorado Springs area is very Fundie), but in recent elections it hasn't been enough for Republicans to win.

That's what I meant.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #19 on: August 10, 2012, 06:35:01 pm »
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Colorado Social Conservatives are likely infuriated by recent policy shifts in the obama administration.

Yes, but they voted Republican in the last elections, too, so, that changes nothing at all.
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Deliverance
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« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2012, 10:56:58 pm »
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Colorado Social Conservatives are likely infuriated by recent policy shifts in the obama administration.

Yes, but they voted Republican in the last elections, too, so, that changes nothing at all.

Colorado is probably the least culturally conservative swing states despite having the most organized culturally conservative elements of all swing states. 

Let's just put it this way. If it wasn't for Boulder and the ski towns, Colorado would vote like Arizona. It would seem competitive in a stray good poll or two but prove elusive for Democrats above the Congressional or Gubertorial level...
 

On the other hand, if there were no Colorado Springs, Colorado would probably vote like Washington. It would seem competitive in a stray good poll or two but prove elusive for Republicans above the Congressional or Gubertorial level....or perhaps as bad as California where the Republicans have to run pro-choice gubertorial candidates to even have a shot.
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"Making Congress Squeal!"- Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA)
the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
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