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| | |-+  FL-Gov: Scott sees uptick in approvals, still trails Crist though
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Author Topic: FL-Gov: Scott sees uptick in approvals, still trails Crist though  (Read 753 times)
Miles
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« on: August 10, 2012, 03:31:39 pm »
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Link.

Rick Scott (R)- 41%
Charlie Crist (D)- 44%

Scott has a 39/51 approval rating, up from 31/56; still bad, but the best that PPP has found for him so far. Crist is breaking even at 41/41, down from 48/33.

42% think Crist should become a Democrat while 27% don't. 56% of Democrats want Crist to join their party.

The generic ballot is tied, with Democrats leading 45-44, though Independents break Republican by a 45-30 margin.

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Kalwejt
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« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2012, 03:35:43 pm »
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As long as Scott doesn't have Taftesque approvals, Florida is a failed state.
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morgieb
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2012, 11:47:46 pm »
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Why is our bench in Florida so weak that we have to resort to an ex-Republican to beat a crook?
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GM Napoleon
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« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2012, 11:53:16 pm »
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Lol Crist is losing Independents and can't break the margin of error against Scott. Also of note: Malloy so awful that he has worse approvals than Scott even with the advantage of a more favorable partisan environment.
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When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
Because I could count, my nose was big, and I kept my bank account fullish
I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
SJoyce
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2012, 08:48:29 am »
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Why is our bench in Florida so weak that we have to resort to an ex-Republican to beat a crook?

A very long story beginning back when Florida was part of the Solid South and would never have Republicans in it, ever, or so they said, when the Democrats could spend their time focused on petty infighting within their party (it doesn't really matter, there won't be any Republicans or anything, right?) and not pay attention to outside forces, such as the very competent Republicans and their methodical and formidable political engines. Democratic infighting meant that no bench of new leaders was there, so when the Republicans took control of the Cabinet offices and the governor's mansion, there was no bench for the Democrats to take them back. 1992 Redistricting (when Republicans teamed up with minority Democrats to draw more majority-minority districts to pack Dems) sealed Democrats as the minority party, currently so irrelevant that we have no statewide office holders and control maybe 30% of each legislative chamber, and redistricting hasn't helped. Long-term demographics look good (we've got a 500,000 person registration edge already), and Democrats do well for the US Senate, but outside that, Florida Democrats are nobodies. That GOP redistricting means that the FL Dems are also now overwhelmingly made up of South Florida liberals, rather than Central/North Florida centrists who can win statewide elections. 2010 was what really killed us: Sink, Aronberg, Gelber, Heller, Long, Fitzgerald; those guys were our best hopes, and they all lost. Our entire bench is mayors (Dyer, Seiler, Iorio, Brown), South Florida liberals (Ring, Rich, Gelber, Seiler), and a few people who've lost gubernatorial races before (Sink, Smith). Charlie Crist and Bob Graham are really the only two competent candidates (there are some more on a local level (Rick Kriseman, Ken Welch) but they're more local politicians with no statewide appeal). Right now, it's an awful cycle: Democrats are a minority who can't get their message out, so special interests don't give to them and operatives don't work for them, so they lose even more. We aren't even gaining ground against a GOP that stopped fluoride. Florida Dems are pathetic, and I don't see that changing any time soon.
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2012, 09:27:21 am »
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Why the hell would we nominate Crist?
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SJoyce
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2012, 09:52:14 am »
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Why the hell would we nominate Crist?

Because he can actually win.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #7 on: August 11, 2012, 10:15:08 am »
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Why is our bench in Florida so weak that we have to resort to an ex-Republican to beat a crook?

A very long story beginning back when Florida was part of the Solid South and would never have Republicans in it, ever, or so they said, when the Democrats could spend their time focused on petty infighting within their party (it doesn't really matter, there won't be any Republicans or anything, right?) and not pay attention to outside forces, such as the very competent Republicans and their methodical and formidable political engines. Democratic infighting meant that no bench of new leaders was there, so when the Republicans took control of the Cabinet offices and the governor's mansion, there was no bench for the Democrats to take them back. 1992 Redistricting (when Republicans teamed up with minority Democrats to draw more majority-minority districts to pack Dems) sealed Democrats as the minority party, currently so irrelevant that we have no statewide office holders and control maybe 30% of each legislative chamber, and redistricting hasn't helped. Long-term demographics look good (we've got a 500,000 person registration edge already), and Democrats do well for the US Senate, but outside that, Florida Democrats are nobodies. That GOP redistricting means that the FL Dems are also now overwhelmingly made up of South Florida liberals, rather than Central/North Florida centrists who can win statewide elections. 2010 was what really killed us: Sink, Aronberg, Gelber, Heller, Long, Fitzgerald; those guys were our best hopes, and they all lost. Our entire bench is mayors (Dyer, Seiler, Iorio, Brown), South Florida liberals (Ring, Rich, Gelber, Seiler), and a few people who've lost gubernatorial races before (Sink, Smith). Charlie Crist and Bob Graham are really the only two competent candidates (there are some more on a local level (Rick Kriseman, Ken Welch) but they're more local politicians with no statewide appeal). Right now, it's an awful cycle: Democrats are a minority who can't get their message out, so special interests don't give to them and operatives don't work for them, so they lose even more. We aren't even gaining ground against a GOP that stopped fluoride. Florida Dems are pathetic, and I don't see that changing any time soon.

What about felony disenfranchisement? How would things change if it was done away with/dealt with in Florida?

http://sentencingproject.org/doc/publications/fd_State_Level_Estimates_of_Felon_Disen_2010.pdf

Quote
Due to differences in state laws and rates of criminal punishment, states vary widely
in the practice of disenfranchisement.  The maps and tables below represent the
disenfranchised population as a percentage  of the adult voting age population in each
state.

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Dereich
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« Reply #8 on: August 11, 2012, 10:40:05 am »
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Why is our bench in Florida so weak that we have to resort to an ex-Republican to beat a crook?

A very long story beginning back when Florida was part of the Solid South and would never have Republicans in it, ever, or so they said, when the Democrats could spend their time focused on petty infighting within their party (it doesn't really matter, there won't be any Republicans or anything, right?) and not pay attention to outside forces, such as the very competent Republicans and their methodical and formidable political engines. Democratic infighting meant that no bench of new leaders was there, so when the Republicans took control of the Cabinet offices and the governor's mansion, there was no bench for the Democrats to take them back. 1992 Redistricting (when Republicans teamed up with minority Democrats to draw more majority-minority districts to pack Dems) sealed Democrats as the minority party, currently so irrelevant that we have no statewide office holders and control maybe 30% of each legislative chamber, and redistricting hasn't helped. Long-term demographics look good (we've got a 500,000 person registration edge already), and Democrats do well for the US Senate, but outside that, Florida Democrats are nobodies. That GOP redistricting means that the FL Dems are also now overwhelmingly made up of South Florida liberals, rather than Central/North Florida centrists who can win statewide elections. 2010 was what really killed us: Sink, Aronberg, Gelber, Heller, Long, Fitzgerald; those guys were our best hopes, and they all lost. Our entire bench is mayors (Dyer, Seiler, Iorio, Brown), South Florida liberals (Ring, Rich, Gelber, Seiler), and a few people who've lost gubernatorial races before (Sink, Smith). Charlie Crist and Bob Graham are really the only two competent candidates (there are some more on a local level (Rick Kriseman, Ken Welch) but they're more local politicians with no statewide appeal). Right now, it's an awful cycle: Democrats are a minority who can't get their message out, so special interests don't give to them and operatives don't work for them, so they lose even more. We aren't even gaining ground against a GOP that stopped fluoride. Florida Dems are pathetic, and I don't see that changing any time soon.

What about felony disenfranchisement? How would things change if it was done away with/dealt with in Florida?

http://sentencingproject.org/doc/publications/fd_State_Level_Estimates_of_Felon_Disen_2010.pdf

Quote
Due to differences in state laws and rates of criminal punishment, states vary widely
in the practice of disenfranchisement.  The maps and tables below represent the
disenfranchised population as a percentage  of the adult voting age population in each
state.



Republicans would be giddy if Democrats campaigned on felon enfranchisement. Florida Republicans used law-and-order issues to help them get elected in the first place, and Florida still favors strong law enforcement (see the stand your ground law). Campaigning on being soft on crime would be the ticket for a massive landslide.
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SJoyce
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« Reply #9 on: August 11, 2012, 12:28:37 pm »
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Why is our bench in Florida so weak that we have to resort to an ex-Republican to beat a crook?

A very long story beginning back when Florida was part of the Solid South and would never have Republicans in it, ever, or so they said, when the Democrats could spend their time focused on petty infighting within their party (it doesn't really matter, there won't be any Republicans or anything, right?) and not pay attention to outside forces, such as the very competent Republicans and their methodical and formidable political engines. Democratic infighting meant that no bench of new leaders was there, so when the Republicans took control of the Cabinet offices and the governor's mansion, there was no bench for the Democrats to take them back. 1992 Redistricting (when Republicans teamed up with minority Democrats to draw more majority-minority districts to pack Dems) sealed Democrats as the minority party, currently so irrelevant that we have no statewide office holders and control maybe 30% of each legislative chamber, and redistricting hasn't helped. Long-term demographics look good (we've got a 500,000 person registration edge already), and Democrats do well for the US Senate, but outside that, Florida Democrats are nobodies. That GOP redistricting means that the FL Dems are also now overwhelmingly made up of South Florida liberals, rather than Central/North Florida centrists who can win statewide elections. 2010 was what really killed us: Sink, Aronberg, Gelber, Heller, Long, Fitzgerald; those guys were our best hopes, and they all lost. Our entire bench is mayors (Dyer, Seiler, Iorio, Brown), South Florida liberals (Ring, Rich, Gelber, Seiler), and a few people who've lost gubernatorial races before (Sink, Smith). Charlie Crist and Bob Graham are really the only two competent candidates (there are some more on a local level (Rick Kriseman, Ken Welch) but they're more local politicians with no statewide appeal). Right now, it's an awful cycle: Democrats are a minority who can't get their message out, so special interests don't give to them and operatives don't work for them, so they lose even more. We aren't even gaining ground against a GOP that stopped fluoride. Florida Dems are pathetic, and I don't see that changing any time soon.

What about felony disenfranchisement? How would things change if it was done away with/dealt with in Florida?

http://sentencingproject.org/doc/publications/fd_State_Level_Estimates_of_Felon_Disen_2010.pdf

Quote
Due to differences in state laws and rates of criminal punishment, states vary widely
in the practice of disenfranchisement.  The maps and tables below represent the
disenfranchised population as a percentage  of the adult voting age population in each
state.



Basically what Dereich said. A few felons would vote (probably Dem), and would be easily outweighed by the masses of people who are afraid of felons (and they'd vote R).
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GM Napoleon
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« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2012, 12:40:01 pm »
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Why the hell would we nominate Crist?

Because he can actually win.

Some things are more important than winning.
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When I was in the third grade, I thought that I was Jewish
Because I could count, my nose was big, and I kept my bank account fullish
I told my mom, tears blurring my vision
He said, "Mort, you've loved God since before circumcision"
SJoyce
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2012, 02:45:25 pm »
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Why the hell would we nominate Crist?

Because he can actually win.

Some things are more important than winning.

For Florida Democrats? Not likely.
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