Romney picks Paul Ryan as his running mate **official thread**

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

This is a bad choice.

Ryan is going to be vulnerable to "crazy right-winger" attacks in addition to have some skeletons that are not going to please the target group (like voting for bailout).

Beside, he's just a Congressman with no statewide base. It doesn't guarantee you much in Wisconsin and the region.

Rubio was an ideal choice: he'd probably lock Florida for Romney and help a great deal among Latinos in other swing states.

Of course, Romney had to f**k this one up as well. It's William E. Miller all over again.

[anvi]

I'm certainly no political professional.  But my intuition is picking Ryan is a net disadvantage for the race (though if Romney wins, Ryan might help him with the House).  Ryan draws too much attention away from the top of the ticket.  Electorally speaking, winning Florida and Ohio is a lot more important than flipping Wisconsin.  The Ryan pick might prompt, with lots of help from liberal media, liberal voters who may otherwise be quite disappointed with Obama to go to the polls, and in an election where turnout will matter a lot, that's quite a risky move.   But, who knows, the Romney people probably saw polling numbers that made them happy and may have been looking at post-election scenarios as alluded to above too.  So, I could easily be quite wrong.  But my intuition is that, in terms of the election, it's a net disadvantage.  

[NHI]

Obama did the same thing when he announced Biden.

[California8429]

Romney needed someone who wouldn't overshadow him. To me it seemed like Ryan was showing some personal ambitions on stage. Will this turn into Palin, getting the attention for running the next cycle instead of the focus being on Romney?

[HagridOfTheDeep]

This ticket has my support, but the tone of the whole thing just felt very off.

[Reaganfan]

This ticket has my support, but the tone of the whole thing just felt very off.

How so?

[Torie]

A risky choice I think, with perhaps more upside and downside. But maybe Mittens feels he needs some upside, given his rather rough cruise through July, when he joined the Midwest in his own little drought. It will put more pressure on the Dems to talk about entitlements however, which is the last thing they have shown any interest in addressing.

Atlasians should be happy however, since Ryan had the potential to make the election more interesting.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

To ReaganFan:

Maybe it's just because I'm so nervous.

A grey cloudy day, two pasty white men, Romney jumping right to the point instead of flourishing things the way McCain did, the "I've been known to make mistakes" statement as he hugs Ryan, the forced waving... I don't know.

It just felt off to me. Biden and Obama looked a lot more like "brothas." Romney shoulda stayed up there with Ryan.

[California8429]

Buzz is starting about Ryan being the next image of JFK, especially fox news.

[ajb]

For aficionados of the "2012 is 1996" theory, isn't Paul Ryan kind of the Jack Kemp of his generation?

[California8429]

Aaron Schock's FB page "I am sooooo excited!!!"

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

"....And at 8:00 ET, we are projecting that Florida will go to Obama."

[anvi]

It will put more pressure on the Dems to talk about entitlements however, which is the last thing they have shown any interest in addressing.

I am definitely in favor of Dems being forced to talk much more seriously about entitlement reform than they have been willing to do up to this point.  My worry is that this pick will prompt Dems to demagogue about entitlements rather that talk about the necessity for reforming them, and demagogue in ways that are convincing to voters, circumventing the need to engage about serious reforms.  It is after all a campaign, not a negotiation.  But, as always, I could be way off  We'll see.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

For aficionados of the "2012 is 1996" theory, isn't Paul Ryan kind of the Jack Kemp of his generation?

Indeed he is.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

America's Comeback Team: Romney/Ryan
86 Days!

Back to the 1880's, of course.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

America's Comeback Team: Romney/Ryan
86 Days!

Back to the 1880's, of course.

Well, the economy did grow at a fast clip then, probably its fastest ever. It was also the decade in which the US surged past Britain to become the largest economy in the world.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

America's Comeback Team: Romney/Ryan
86 Days!

Back to the 1880's, of course.

Well, the economy did grow at a fast clip then, probably its fastest ever. It was also the decade in which the US surged past Britain to become the largest economy in the world.

You know what I meant.

[The Mikado]

For aficionados of the "2012 is 1996" theory, isn't Paul Ryan kind of the Jack Kemp of his generation?

Indeed he is.

Remember the GOP touting Kemp as potentially breaking through with the black vote due to his sports background?  I believe it was Newt Gingrich that said that Kemp had showered with more black men than most Republicans had met.

[Likely Voter]

The pick of Ryan shows that Team Romney thinks this election is more about turning out your base then convincing undecideds and indies, and they are probably right about that. The massive negative campaign is going to push down turnout. Obama won the summer by galvanizing his base. They must have made the calculation that the Ryan Budget is such catnip to the Dems, it will move the debate to that and away from Bain and taxes and they feel that debating the budget and debt is GOP turf so they benefit

It also looks like they have made the calculation that foreign policy/national security don't matter in this election. Or there is nothing they can do with a VP pick to help in that arena.

[Thomas D]

I just found out about this 3 minutes ago. I'm not sure how I feel about this yet. I think this is good for Obama. But who knows?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Was looking up Committee assignments for Ryan when I found this on wikipedia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Thomas D]

Also, Has MSNBC been showing field hockey all morning?

[pepper11]

Also, Has MSNBC been showing field hockey all morning?

Probably a good thing for a Republican VP rollout

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Was looking up Committee assignments for Ryan when I found this on wikipedia:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Indeed, a man of integrity.

[muon2]

This is a choice that allows Mitt to double down on the fiscal state of the nation. Much of his difficulty the last six weeks is that he's been losing the tug of war between personal popularity where Obama beats him to economic competence where Romney wins. My guess is that he's heard his advisers tell him to get back on message, and this is his pick to do so.

I had a chance to listen to one of those advisers this week and it's interesting to see how this pick figures into the electoral map. That adviser (who's also a major pollster) said that Romney's best path is to first take the McCain states, and this pick doesn't put any of those into jeopardy. The next step is to retake IN, NC and VA the historically GOP states that flipped in 2008. IN is a lock by most polls, and Ryan won't hurt in VA/NC and may help if he can reinforce a message of economic competence. There was a talk by a top Dem pollster as well and he didn't disagree with any of the main points of the GOP analysis.

The second pair of take backs on the map identified by GOP advisers are OH and FL. Ryan's Midwestern roots and college career at Miami of OH only add to the fix the economy message that OH voters put at the top of their list. Polling for FL shows Romney doing best with seniors in that state while losing the younger part of the electorate. FL is already getting hit by negative ads from both sides and adding those against Ryan may be lost in the noise. If Mitt keeps himself as the main face in FL, Ryan may not cut into his senior base.

If Romney gets the above states, he needs one more to top 270 EV. Ryan clearly helps in WI and IA, and may also help in NH and MI (which has a similar issue profile as OH). The other close western states could be substituted in this list, but the pick of Ryan seems to indicate that Romney is making his stand in the Midwest, so if states like NV or CO are wins that's just gravy. How he campaigns in FL becomes a critical piece now, since losing that state would require multiple other states to replace its EVs.