Romney picks Paul Ryan as his running mate **official thread**

[Minnesota Mike]

Well, good for Romney. I don't know if he's going to win or not, but he needed a game changer, and this was the right way to do it.

This is not a game changer. A game changer would be to go the opposite way and pick a moderate (Brian Sandoval?).

[pepper11]

Well, good for Romney. I don't know if he's going to win or not, but he needed a game changer, and this was the right way to do it.

This is not a game changer. A game changer would be to go the opposite way and pick a moderate (Brian Sandoval?).

Those D+9 samples would have become the norm.

[Brittain33]

Well, good for Romney. I don't know if he's going to win or not, but he needed a game changer, and this was the right way to do it.

Ryan is more of the same.

Yeah, there is absolutely no stretch of that phrase where I can think of this as some sort of "game changer." Paul Ryan has been the epitome of everything the Democrats have been (rightfully) accusing the Republicans of supporting since Obama took office.

Let me explain what I was thinking... "more of the same" to me was Romney pretending this election was a referendum on Obama, that if anyone was unhappy with unemployment they have to vote for him, and that he stood for generic values of free enterprise and American strength. He'd been coasting on that for a while and it wasn't working out. Picking someone like Pawlenty or Portman would have amplified the same tinny message and not made a difference.

Picking Ryan marks no change in the policies Romney would have pursued, but it gambles that putting them front and center may make a change for the better and that Ryan is charismatic or respectable enough to rejuvenate his campaign. Will it make a difference? They have to see.

[Torie]

Muon2 of course sums it all up nicely, but the most compelling reason to pick Ryan is that Mittens endorsed the Ryan Plan, and Ryan can defend - or to put it more appositely - sell - the Ryan Plan far more effectively and compellingly than Mittens. Ryan ties the wonkish numbers bit with a passion about how while the medicine does not taste good, it is essential for your health, and that he really cares about your health, in a way Mittens is simply not capable of projecting.  In a word, Mittens is uptight - and Ryan isn't.

When you get tied at the hip to someone else's policy, and the guy who formulated the policy is a good salesman, you hire the salesman.  KISS.  

Didn't you say Romney would have to be mad not to pick Portman?

That was the day before yesterday.  I had not quite picked up at that time just how much Romney had embraced the Ryan plan. So it becomes an in for a penny, in for a pound, kind of thing. Plus I realize now, that Ryan is a considerably more compelling speaker, and a better salesman, than Portman.

In short, I just blew it!    In my defense, I was concerned about Ohio, very concerned, but at the end of the day, I doubt that Portman would have moved the dial there much.

[Sbane]

Decent pick. I think we have a real choice in this election so that's a good thing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well, W. just endorsed Romney's choice of Ryan. So what could possibly go wrong?

[Brittain33]

Sarah Palin hasn't commented yet.

[J. J.]

First, in terms of Electoral Votes, this has been the best Republican pick since 1980.  That is not saying much.  There were better VP candidates strictly in terms of maximizing Electoral Votes.  

Third, it does hit Obama on the worse aspect of his presidency, the economy.  Ryan helps make this campaign about the economy.  

1. Those EVs aren't swing states, and even then it's not clear if Romney/Ryan can win NH or WI.

2. No, he makes it about the Ryan plan.

1.  I think Romney how has a much better shot at IA and WI, because of Ryan.  Possibly OH and NH as well.

2.  The difference is:  "Obama has failed, economically, after four years; we're offering something new."  It also is a more optimistic plan, which sells.

[pepper11]

Romney needed a narrative. Ryan gave him one. 

Also, this is the first time since early primaries that Staples and Sports Authority were used to promote Romney's business background.  Not sure why it took picking a VP to do this however...

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

First, in terms of Electoral Votes, this has been the best Republican pick since 1980.  That is not saying much.  There were better VP candidates strictly in terms of maximizing Electoral Votes.  

Third, it does hit Obama on the worse aspect of his presidency, the economy.  Ryan helps make this campaign about the economy.  

1. Those EVs aren't swing states, and even then it's not clear if Romney/Ryan can win NH or WI.

2. No, he makes it about the Ryan plan.

1.  I think Romney how has a much better shot at IA and WI, because of Ryan.  Possibly OH and NH as well.

2.  The difference is:  "Obama has failed, economically, after four years; we're offering something new."  It also is a more optimistic plan, which sells.
[/quote

That's what Mitt's been saying all along, minus the 'something new' bit. And the something new that he and Ryan are offering is rather unpopular and helped elect Kathy Hochul.

[Sbane]

I don't see why people think Ryan will help in Ohio. Is it a state that is very concerned about deficits? I don't think so. They are concerned about jobs and outsourcing and Romney is not their sort of candidate. Does Ryan do anything to change that? I don't really think so. Also isn't Ohio an older state? That would cut against Ryan as well. Overall I see about the same effect on Ohio as Ryan will have on the country at large.

[Bull Moose Base]

Guys, it isn't "rumors".  CNN says they have three different GOP sources confirming this.  NBC, the AP, etc. have multiple sources.  The Romney campaign is obviously watching all of this.  If it wasn't Ryan, it would be kind of a humiliation for him, to have this many news outlets saying it's him, and then for Romney to pick someone else.  The Romney campaign would have put out a statement correcting the record by now if it wasn't true.

Also the fact that it's going to be on the U.S.S. Wisconsin is a pretty obvious confirmation. You don't put Paul Ryan on your heavily publicized shortlist, pick a boat named after his home state, and then announce that it's someone else. Mitt Romney may be a heartless monster, but he wouldn't be that cruel.

If Ryan knows he's not the guy, and agrees to this ruse, what is the harm in leaking false info to liberal outlets and letting it get out of control? Especially if you release the tax returns at the same time. One, you destroy the credibility of anonymous sources. Two, you expose what a massive fraud Reid's tax claim was, and how the media is desperate to get Obama help. Three, the Obama campaign ends up wasting all night getting ready to cream Ryan in the morning. Four, people will talk about all of this right up till the convention. Most importantly, the tax issue is buried and anonymous sources are a joke for the rest of the campaign.

The choice is not official until Romney says so. When advisors to GW Bush went to sleep the day before the announcement, they thought Danforth was the guy. Bush broke shocking news to his advisors the next morning.

He's announcing on the USS Wisconsin, bro. His campaign's also never really been good at controlling the flow of information.

Obvious misdirection is obvious? There are a number of potential veeps in Washington, DC right now. This is a golden opportunity to destroy the credibility of anonymous sources. Maybe get the tax returns out of the way at the same time.

I gotta go, folks. Tune in tomorrow morning. Maybe it's Ryan or maybe it's somebody else.

The entire nation is going to be taken by complete surprise when Mitt appears on stage Saturday morning with Condi. 

Could someone check those FAA flight plans to see if these two are fleeing the country this morning?

[© tweed]

I guess we have to believe Rubio turned it down

[stegosaurus]

Pros:
1. Ryan brings specifics and clear messaging to a campaign that has largely been running on platitudes and bad economic news. Romney's "where's the beef?" dilemma is, at least temporarily, solved.

2. Ryan is articulate and not prone to gaffes, unlike Romney. The campaign now has a prime time surrogate that it can deploy without crossing its fingers.

3. Ryan is a "regular guy" which can negate a little of the "mega-rich guy" narrative that haunts Romney.

Cons:
1. Ryan and his budget are very controversial and the Obama camp are masters of messaging. Considering how inept the Romney camp is in its retorts, this could be a media bloodbath.

2. Picking Ryan is going to fire up a Democratic base that was until this point running an enthusiasm deficit.

It's a really bold pick on Romney's part, but overall I call it a wash.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I don't believe Ryan would have been picked if Wisconsin didn't look competitive.

If the candidate thinks certain state look competitive, it doesn't mean it's really competitive.

McCain tried to make Pennsylvania competitive in 2008, as vital part of his strategy, and failed miserably. There are other states Romney should be focusing on rather than Wisconsin.

Look, I can understand Romney is hoping to appeal to a certain group of voters, but from geographical point, Ryan selection hardly gives him much.

[muon2]

Well, good for Romney. I don't know if he's going to win or not, but he needed a game changer, and this was the right way to do it.

Ryan is more of the same.

Yeah, there is absolutely no stretch of that phrase where I can think of this as some sort of "game changer." Paul Ryan has been the epitome of everything the Democrats have been (rightfully) accusing the Republicans of supporting since Obama took office.

Let me explain what I was thinking... "more of the same" to me was Romney pretending this election was a referendum on Obama, that if anyone was unhappy with unemployment they have to vote for him, and that he stood for generic values of free enterprise and American strength. He'd been coasting on that for a while and it wasn't working out. Picking someone like Pawlenty or Portman would have amplified the same tinny message and not made a difference.

Picking Ryan marks no change in the policies Romney would have pursued, but it gambles that putting them front and center may make a change for the better and that Ryan is charismatic or respectable enough to rejuvenate his campaign. Will it make a difference? They have to see.

According to serious pollsters on both sides it is a referendum on Obama. The question is whether more voters will see it on Obama the person or Obama the executive of the economy. Your second paragraph is correct. The crosstabs basically indicate that Romney must put the economy front and center.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

I think it will be a no-effect or slight net-drag on the ticket. Just ask Congresswoman Kathy Hochul what the Ryan plan did for her!

[Brittain33]

If the election were a referendum on Obama, Romney wouldn't have slid in the polls on the past month. Obama has made headway in making Romney unlikable.

[Rhodie]

Pros:
1. Ryan brings specifics and clear messaging to a campaign that has largely been running on platitudes and bad economic news. Romney's "where's the beef?" dilemma is, at least temporarily, solved.

2. Ryan is articulate and not prone to gaffes, unlike Romney. The campaign now has a prime time surrogate that it can deploy without crossing its fingers.

3. Ryan is a "regular guy" which can negate a little of the "mega-rich guy" narrative that haunts Romney.

Cons:
1. Ryan and his budget are very controversial and the Obama camp are masters of messaging. Considering how inept the Romney camp is in its retorts, this could be a media bloodbath.

2. Picking Ryan is going to fire up a Democratic base that was until this point running an enthusiasm deficit.

It's a really bold pick on Romney's part, but overall I call it a wash.

I don't actually think Ryan will fire up the Democratic base as much as expected. The controversy over Ryan is primary an economic one, which won't fire up the Dems base as much as if Romney had picked Santorum or Bachmann. My opinion is that Ryan will be a net asset, as he gives a non-threatening air to the ticket, enticing independents who might be put off by a socially conservative barnburner.

[muon2]

If the election were a referendum on Obama, Romney wouldn't have slid in the polls on the past month. Obama has made headway in making Romney unlikable.

No and yes. Obama's best strategy is to make the referendum on Obama the man. He wins the favorability polls easily. His messaging this summer has served to keep the referendum on that point.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm surprised. I was betting on Portman since Ryan is a risky choice, and being risky isn't Romney's style. Be interesting to see some Florida polls now.

[Brittain33]

If the election were a referendum on Obama, Romney wouldn't have slid in the polls on the past month. Obama has made headway in making Romney unlikable.

No and yes. Obama's best strategy is to make the referendum on Obama the man. He wins the favorability polls easily. His messaging this summer has served to keep the referendum on that point.

I don't think we share a definition of "referendum." If Obama wanted this to be a referendum on his favorability, he would be focusing on his own image. Instead, he has focused on discrediting Romney. This would be in line with his making it a choice between him and Romney, not a referendum, which is "yes or no" on the incumbent without consideration for the alternative.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think it will be a no-effect or slight net-drag on the ticket. Just ask Congresswoman Kathy Hochul what the Ryan plan did for her!

If her opponent had been Paul Ryan himself, I highly doubt that should have much to celebrate these days. NY-26 is more Republican then his own district and he is not a dud of a campaigner like the GOP candidate was in that special. In fact, it just reinforces what Torie said about getting the man who wrote the plan to sell it.

[You kip if you want to...]

AHAHAHAHA. I knew it was a strong chance, but I didn't actually think Mitt was stupid enough to do it!

[Insula Dei]

Did I not predict that Mutt Rhymney's running mate would be a 'sociopath in a bad suit'? I believe that I did. All hail my predicterating skills of brilliance and skillfulness.

Would you not have said that of any male Republican running mate Romney would pick?

Absolutely.

What if he had picked a sociopath in a good suit?

Come, come, let's not exaggerate how awful most Republican officials are.