Romney picks Paul Ryan as his running mate **official thread**

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Did I not predict that Mutt Rhymney's running mate would be a 'sociopath in a bad suit'? I believe that I did. All hail my predicterating skills of brilliance and skillfulness.

Would you not have said that of any male Republican running mate Romney would pick?

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

The GOP WILL NOT GET MY VOTE. YOU MUST HAVE AN EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN ON THE TICKET!!!!!!!Thanks for flipping us evangelicals off GOP

[J. J.]

First, in terms of Electoral Votes, this has been the best Republican pick since 1980.  That is not saying much.  There were better VP candidates strictly in terms of maximizing Electoral Votes.  

In terms of overall picks, it is better than the Democratic picks in 1984, 1988, and about the same as 1992, 2004, and even 1976.  It is not a bad pick, but not a stellar one, in general terms.

Second, it does solidify the right behind Romney, so I would not be worried about the base.  

Third, it does hit Obama on the worse aspect of his presidency, the economy.  Ryan helps make this campaign about the economy.  

In this regard, the Reagan question, "Are you better off than you were four years ago," comes into play.  Possibly excepting 2000, since 1976 the party in the White House that could answer yes has retained the presidency.

The drift to a more free market stand, with Ryan being a fan of Atlas Shrugged, could signal a realignment, if it is successful.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No, it's a repeat of McCain.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The GOP WILL NOT GET MY VOTE. YOU MUST HAVE AN EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN ON THE TICKET!!!!!!!Thanks for flipping us evangelicals off GOP

...

Seriously, is that all that matters to you?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The GOP WILL NOT GET MY VOTE. YOU MUST HAVE AN EVANGELICAL CHRISTIAN ON THE TICKET!!!!!!!Thanks for flipping us evangelicals off GOP

When are you guys going to realize you are part of a whole, and not the whole affair yourself?


Plus, identity politics is so passe'.

[J. J.]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No, it's a repeat of McCain.

No, not at all.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"Get in the back of the damn bus, strap in and shut up!'

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

First, in terms of Electoral Votes, this has been the best Republican pick since 1980.  That is not saying much.  There were better VP candidates strictly in terms of maximizing Electoral Votes.  

Third, it does hit Obama on the worse aspect of his presidency, the economy.  Ryan helps make this campaign about the economy.  

1. Those EVs aren't swing states, and even then it's not clear if Romney/Ryan can win NH or WI.

2. No, he makes it about the Ryan plan.

[Wisconsin+17]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

True - McCain was prolife and supported traditional marriage.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This is a choice that allows Mitt to double down on the fiscal state of the nation. Much of his difficulty the last six weeks is that he's been losing the tug of war between personal popularity where Obama beats him to economic competence where Romney wins. My guess is that he's heard his advisers tell him to get back on message, and this is his pick to do so.

I had a chance to listen to one of those advisers this week and it's interesting to see how this pick figures into the electoral map. That adviser (who's also a major pollster) said that Romney's best path is to first take the McCain states, and this pick doesn't put any of those into jeopardy. The next step is to retake IN, NC and VA the historically GOP states that flipped in 2008. IN is a lock by most polls, and Ryan won't hurt in VA/NC and may help if he can reinforce a message of economic competence. There was a talk by a top Dem pollster as well and he didn't disagree with any of the main points of the GOP analysis.

The second pair of take backs on the map identified by GOP advisers are OH and FL. Ryan's Midwestern roots and college career at Miami of OH only add to the fix the economy message that OH voters put at the top of their list. Polling for FL shows Romney doing best with seniors in that state while losing the younger part of the electorate. FL is already getting hit by negative ads from both sides and adding those against Ryan may be lost in the noise. If Mitt keeps himself as the main face in FL, Ryan may not cut into his senior base.

If Romney gets the above states, he needs one more to top 270 EV. Ryan clearly helps in WI and IA, and may also help in NH and MI (which has a similar issue profile as OH). The other close western states could be substituted in this list, but the pick of Ryan seems to indicate that Romney is making his stand in the Midwest, so if states like NV or CO are wins that's just gravy. How he campaigns in FL becomes a critical piece now, since losing that state would require multiple other states to replace its EVs.

So basically it is the 3-2-1 (or raher 2-3-1 according to recent polling) strategy that we have been operating with for some time.

Trying to hide Paul Ryan from Florida isn't going to work. Sure it may get lost in the noise, but that is staking a lot on a weak hunch about negative advertising. I think the "safer" option in an already bold scenario is to stay bold and put Paul in with the old folks in Florida.

[5280]

Picking Ryan puts alot of energy into the Romney campaign now, good choice!

[pepper11]

Excellent choice.

I don't see any reason he would hurt in Florida though.  The Ryan plan does not affect Medicare for anyone older than 55. If Democrats want to scare people about the plan, wouldn't the people who may be affected by the plan (less than 55) be the ones getting scared.

Unless they blatantly lie about it (which could be done to any VP candidate about anything, so that's not a weakness inherent to Ryan).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Did I not predict that Mutt Rhymney's running mate would be a 'sociopath in a bad suit'? I believe that I did. All hail my predicterating skills of brilliance and skillfulness.

Would you not have said that of any male Republican running mate Romney would pick?

Absolutely.

[The Mikado]

Did I not predict that Mutt Rhymney's running mate would be a 'sociopath in a bad suit'? I believe that I did. All hail my predicterating skills of brilliance and skillfulness.

Would you not have said that of any male Republican running mate Romney would pick?

Absolutely.

What if he had picked a sociopath in a good suit?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama's InTrade numbers have ticked up a bit, he now has a bout a 20% lead (around 58-38)

[pepper11]

Obama's InTrade numbers have ticked up a bit, he now has a bout a 20% lead (around 58-38)

yesterday he was at 60..there hasn't been a change.

[Torie]

Muon2 of course sums it all up nicely, but the most compelling reason to pick Ryan is that Mittens endorsed the Ryan Plan, and Ryan can defend - or to put it more appositely - sell - the Ryan Plan far more effectively and compellingly than Mittens. Ryan ties the wonkish numbers bit with a passion about how while the medicine does not taste good, it is essential for your health, and that he really cares about your health, in a way Mittens is simply not capable of projecting.  In a word, Mittens is uptight - and Ryan isn't.

When you get tied at the hip to someone else's policy, and the guy who formulated the policy is a good salesman, you hire the salesman.  KISS.  

[Brittain33]

Well, good for Romney. I don't know if he's going to win or not, but he needed a game changer, and this was the right way to do it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What if he had picked a sociopath in a good suit?

Then I would have had to radically readjust my mental image of American political life.

[California8429]

Anyone know what was the music they came on stage to today.

[Napoleon]

Well, good for Romney. I don't know if he's going to win or not, but he needed a game changer, and this was the right way to do it.

Ryan is more of the same.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Well, good for Romney. I don't know if he's going to win or not, but he needed a game changer, and this was the right way to do it.

Ryan is more of the same.

Yeah, there is absolutely no stretch of that phrase where I can think of this as some sort of "game changer." Paul Ryan has been the epitome of everything the Democrats have been (rightfully) accusing the Republicans of supporting since Obama took office.

[Eraserhead]

Muon2 of course sums it all up nicely, but the most compelling reason to pick Ryan is that Mittens endorsed the Ryan Plan, and Ryan can defend - or to put it more appositely - sell - the Ryan Plan far more effectively and compellingly than Mittens. Ryan ties the wonkish numbers bit with a passion about how while the medicine does not taste good, it is essential for your health, and that he really cares about your health, in a way Mittens is simply not capable of projecting.  In a word, Mittens is uptight - and Ryan isn't.

When you get tied at the hip to someone else's policy, and the guy who formulated the policy is a good salesman, you hire the salesman.  KISS.  

Didn't you say Romney would have to be mad not to pick Portman?

[pepper11]

Quick internet polls are usually a bit sill but i have NEVER EVER seen one at msnbc.com showing a favorable conservative / Republican result until today with 50+ vs 30+ saying Ryan is a good choice.  Between that and the unreal enthusiasm from the base, if I were a Democrat I am not sure I would be gleeful as some seem.  He will get attacked, but so would any other choice. Between his smarts and his happy warrior demenor, he won't get pigeonholed as a goon like Palin did.