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| | |-+  Who do you think will win Wisconsin?
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Obama/Biden   -80 (76.9%)
Romney/Ryan   -24 (23.1%)
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Total Voters: 104

Author Topic: Who do you think will win Wisconsin?  (Read 1675 times)
Emperor Scott
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« on: August 10, 2012, 11:22:08 pm »
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One of those threads again.
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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #1 on: August 10, 2012, 11:24:07 pm »
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If John Edwards didn't help Kerry get NC in 2004, Ryan will be the 2012 and Republican version of this issue.
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« Reply #2 on: August 10, 2012, 11:24:46 pm »
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I voted Romney/Ryan, but honestly its more of a tossup now than ever before.
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« Reply #3 on: August 10, 2012, 11:26:11 pm »
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No one in Wisconsin cares about Paul Ryan. He represents an eighth of the state.
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« Reply #4 on: August 10, 2012, 11:26:31 pm »
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Ryan makes it tighter, but still Obama narrowly.
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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: August 10, 2012, 11:27:28 pm »
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Obama will just win by a point or two less (which means 4-6 instead of 6-8). Ryan's plan really isnt popular with the states demographic
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« Reply #6 on: August 10, 2012, 11:29:02 pm »
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Obama/Biden. Even if they lose, I'll gladly trade Wisconsin for Florida.
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« Reply #7 on: August 10, 2012, 11:29:27 pm »
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mitt romney barely
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« Reply #8 on: August 10, 2012, 11:52:08 pm »
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Very slight lean to Obama, but Obama will likely win comfortably anyway.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #9 on: August 10, 2012, 11:56:28 pm »
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Well, it'll sure be a lot closer than folks thought it would be last April.
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« Reply #10 on: August 11, 2012, 12:13:48 am »
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Even if Ryan brings a decent home state advantage, I think Obama will be sleeping soundly tonight.
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« Reply #11 on: August 11, 2012, 12:21:12 am »
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Even if Ryan brings a decent home state advantage, I think Obama will be sleeping soundly tonight.

not necessarily.  I still don't get why people are thinking obama is a shoo in for reelection.
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« Reply #12 on: August 11, 2012, 12:43:04 am »
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Even if Ryan brings a decent home state advantage, I think Obama will be sleeping soundly tonight.

not necessarily.  I still don't get why people are thinking obama is a shoo in for reelection.

It's not whether or not he's a shoo-in, it's skepticism that Ryan makes him any less of a shoo-in if he is one.
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« Reply #13 on: August 11, 2012, 12:48:58 am »
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Even if Ryan brings a decent home state advantage, I think Obama will be sleeping soundly tonight.

not necessarily.  I still don't get why people are thinking obama is a shoo in for reelection.

Nobody (except maybe Bandit and pBrower, but they don't count) is really considering the election a shoo in for Obama. However, it isn't inaccurate to say that Obama is favored, based on the historical precedent of the incumbent advantage, and his aggregate lead in national polls and in the swing states.
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« Reply #14 on: August 11, 2012, 09:25:30 am »
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No one in Wisconsin cares about Paul Ryan. He represents an eighth of the state.

It's a part of Wisconsin that was probably going to Romney anyway (Milwaukee suburbs)
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« Reply #15 on: August 11, 2012, 09:27:10 am »
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If John Edwards didn't help Kerry get NC in 2004, Ryan will be the 2012 and Republican version of this issue.

Edwards was at least a Senator, elected statewide.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2012, 09:28:38 am »
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Its true Paul Ryan wasn't well known, but within a week I think everyone in WI (and the rest of the country) will know who he is. He will have some benefit in WI. This means that both campaigns will now start spending money there.
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2012, 09:28:54 am »
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How popular is Paul Ryan within Wisconsin outside his home district?  
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« Reply #18 on: August 11, 2012, 09:51:43 am »
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Ryan makes it tighter, but still Obama narrowly.

PPP had Obama +6  -> Obama +1 when Ryan was added to the ticket a month ago.  Don't know if anyone else has publicly polled it.  Nate Silver, for what it's worth, I think has said the VP tends to be 2 points in the home state?  So, agreeing with this for now.  I'm sure every pollster in the world will be doing a Wisconsin poll soon.
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« Reply #19 on: August 11, 2012, 09:53:41 am »
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Obama 51-48
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« Reply #20 on: August 11, 2012, 10:53:09 am »
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How popular is Paul Ryan within Wisconsin outside his home district?  

The only thing they know about him most likely is he wants to destroy Medicare.
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« Reply #21 on: August 11, 2012, 11:09:22 am »
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Obama 51-48

Probably this
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IBDDBW
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« Reply #22 on: August 11, 2012, 11:15:25 am »
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well Romney will do better then macCain in the 1st District(Paul Ryans Cong Dist) as Obama won the 1st district 51% to 47% in 2008
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« Reply #23 on: August 11, 2012, 11:17:29 am »
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Romney wins Wisconsin and the election. 

Wisconsin is trending Republicans with Scott Walker, etc.  (this is not like NC trending republican in 2004). 

Romney should win Florida easily (the scare tactics won't work) and Ohio, Virginia, Iowa. 

Its over for Obama.  The numbers don't lie, and Romney will have the votes in Wisconsin. 
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« Reply #24 on: August 11, 2012, 11:20:12 am »
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Romney wins Wisconsin and the election. 

Wisconsin is trending Republicans with Scott Walker, etc.  (this is not like NC trending republican in 2004). 

Romney should win Florida easily (the scare tactics won't work) and Ohio, Virginia, Iowa. 

Its over for Obama.  The numbers don't lie, and Romney will have the votes in Wisconsin. 

I will tell you again, its not all over. Obama leads in most of these states.
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