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Author Topic: WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?  (Read 1407 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: August 11, 2012, 03:15:53 am »
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Apparently, Ryan can run for reelection for his House seat while simultaneously running for VP.  How safe is his district for the GOP after the redistricting?  How will he do this November if he's spending all his time running for VP?  And, if he wins reelection, but Romney/Ryan also wins nationally, who's likely to run in the special election, and would the Dems have any chance of taking the seat?
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2012, 03:45:18 am »
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Apparently, Ryan can run for reelection for his House seat while simultaneously running for VP.  How safe is his district for the GOP after the redistricting?
Not safe. It's a tilt R-ish district that some people were wondering whether it would stay personally safe for Ryan now that he's in the spotlight so, but that the state GOP didn't feel the need to butter up in redistricting.
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« Reply #2 on: August 11, 2012, 09:16:31 am »
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Ryan has stomped his opponents 6 times now, by large margins. When he won that district it had almost none of Waukesha county.
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Torie
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« Reply #3 on: August 11, 2012, 09:31:49 am »
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Apparently, Ryan can run for reelection for his House seat while simultaneously running for VP.  How safe is his district for the GOP after the redistricting?
Not safe. It's a tilt R-ish district that some people were wondering whether it would stay personally safe for Ryan now that he's in the spotlight so, but that the state GOP didn't feel the need to butter up in redistricting.

Oh, WI-01 got a dollop of margarine - it was Pubbed up by 80 basis points from 1.6% GOP PVI to 2.4% GOP PVI - and in that range, that is a BIG 80 basis points. It's tilt GOP generically. WI-07 up north in contrast has about a dead even PVI.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: August 11, 2012, 06:08:21 pm »
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Ryan will in fact stay on the ballot in his House race this fall:

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/ryan-would-be-able-to-stay-on-ballot-for-reelection-d36f2o1-165826096.html

I wonder how many people in WI-1 will vote for him for Congress but not VP, and vice versa.
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« Reply #5 on: August 11, 2012, 06:14:58 pm »
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Ryan has stomped his opponents 6 times now, by large margins. When he won that district it had almost none of Waukesha county.

Why is your choice of language to metaphorically describe electoral or policy victories always violent or S&M-related or both?
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« Reply #6 on: August 11, 2012, 06:59:46 pm »
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Apparently, Ryan can run for reelection for his House seat while simultaneously running for VP.  How safe is his district for the GOP after the redistricting?
Not safe. It's a tilt R-ish district that some people were wondering whether it would stay personally safe for Ryan now that he's in the spotlight so, but that the state GOP didn't feel the need to butter up in redistricting.

Oh, WI-01 got a dollop of margarine - it was Pubbed up by 80 basis points from 1.6% GOP PVI to 2.4% GOP PVI - and in that range, that is a BIG 80 basis points. It's tilt GOP generically. WI-07 up north in contrast has about a dead even PVI.

While Ryan certainly won't win by the margins he's won in the past since he's now in the national spotlight, I would assume he would be safe even if Obama carries WI-1, no?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2012, 05:29:58 am »
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http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_155/Wisconsin-GOP-Mulls-Replacement-if-Paul-Ryan-Is-VP-215553-1.html

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GOP insiders in the state said there has already been some quiet discussion about who would likely vie to succeed Ryan in a special election, should he get picked by Mitt Romney and the pair win the White House race in November. Presumptive state Speaker Robin Vos and Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus top the list of potential GOP contenders in a district that the party would be favored to hold.
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Priebus, who has wide name recognition as RNC chairman, has deep roots in the district. He was born and raised in Kenosha and served as Wisconsin GOP chairman before taking the national stage. Insiders on the ground in Wisconsin said a Congressional run would be an easy transition for Priebus.

“My personal belief is that Reince Priebus would be a shoo-in. ... Politics is in his blood,” a Wisconsin GOP insider said. “Has he expressed interest? I would have to say no, but people have talked about it.”

Priebus declined to comment.

Small-business man and Kenosha County Board Supervisor Rob Zerban, Ryan’s opponent in the November election, would likely be the leading Democratic contender if a special election were to materialize.
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2012, 10:22:06 am »
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Wow that's premature.
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2012, 12:50:42 pm »
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Russ Feingold is from Janesville, too.
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2012, 03:43:02 pm »
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A random curiosity is that Milwaukee Democrats thought a city of 600,000 deserved 2 Congressional districts rather than 1, back in 2000. They proposed a plan that would have merged Tammy Baldwin and Paul Ryan.

In the end, Sensenbrenner and Obey came up with an incumbent protection plan that dissolved a Democratic held Milwaukee district, moved rural areas out of the 2nd district, and moved Beloit into the 2nd district. 80% Waukesha County areas were added to the 1st district to replace Beloit.
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2012, 03:58:22 pm »
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Ryan has stomped his opponents 6 times now, by large margins. When he won that district it had almost none of Waukesha county.

Why is your choice of language to metaphorically describe electoral or policy victories always violent or S&M-related or both?

he used 'stomp' 3 times in five posts
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« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2012, 05:23:35 pm »
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Ummm.....

It'd go to an open seat, where it'd be advantage GOP IMO.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2012, 06:09:48 pm »
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GOP hold.
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2012, 06:29:34 pm »
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While Ryan certainly won't win by the margins he's won in the past since he's now in the national spotlight, I would assume he would be safe even if Obama carries WI-1, no?

He might.  Ryan is now seen as a "national" leader.  A lot of people, including Obama fans, want a national leader to cater to their local interests.
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« Reply #15 on: August 13, 2012, 09:58:19 am »
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While Ryan certainly won't win by the margins he's won in the past since he's now in the national spotlight, I would assume he would be safe even if Obama carries WI-1, no?

He might.  Ryan is now seen as a "national" leader.  A lot of people, including Obama fans, want a national leader to cater to their local interests.

Being a national leader sure didnt help Tom Foley or Tom Daschle.


Nevertheless, Ryan is probably safe in all but a very bad GOP midterm where Democrats put up a decent challenger. 

In a special election early in a Romney administration, Democrats would have a good shot at picking the seat up.  It was carried by Russ Feingold by two points in 2004.
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« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2012, 10:10:37 am »
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Being a national leader sure didnt help Tom Foley or Tom Daschle.

Tom Foley and Tom Daschle were both running in very Republican electorates where being a national partisan figure of the wrong party was a huge negative. Ryan is running in a net Republican electorate in WI-1. There's really not much of a comparison.

This should be a very competitive seat in a special election, though. They're just really weird beasts.
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« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2012, 05:54:51 pm »
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Being a national leader sure didnt help Tom Foley or Tom Daschle.

Tom Foley and Tom Daschle were both running in very Republican electorates where being a national partisan figure of the wrong party was a huge negative. Ryan is running in a net Republican electorate in WI-1. There's really not much of a comparison.

This should be a very competitive seat in a special election, though. They're just really weird beasts.

Foley's district actually wasnt that Republican back in the early 90's.  Clinton carried it in 1992 and Dukakis came within a whisker of taking the district in 1988. 
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2012, 10:32:54 pm »
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Russ Feingold is from Janesville, too.

cough cough Rod Grams cough cough
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Wiz from Wis in Mass
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« Reply #19 on: August 15, 2012, 08:36:37 am »
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Russ Feingold is from Janesville, too.

cough cough Rod Grams cough cough

Russ grew up in Janesville. He's lived in Middleton for almost 30 years.
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« Reply #20 on: August 15, 2012, 09:02:15 am »
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You know, whatever happens in the election, I have a feeling that Rob Zerban is going to get a bunch of unexpected cash. I don't think the Dems can resist having the chance to get rid of Paul Ryan by nationalizing his congressional campaign.
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« Reply #21 on: August 15, 2012, 09:44:20 am »
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You would need a good to great opponent to have a chance at Ryan's CD.  The Dems don't have one, so Ryan will win around 60% or more in the congressional election. 

The real question is if he will run up huge numbers in the presidential race for 'himself'. 
Another question I'm asking is: how much will Thompson run up numbers in the three 'northern' districts and how much will it translate to the presidential race.  You have a plausible scenario where Rs will run up 'large' margins in 6 of the 8 CDs.     
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« Reply #22 on: August 16, 2012, 03:54:58 pm »
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Ryan has stomped his opponents 6 times now, by large margins. When he won that district it had almost none of Waukesha county.

The Dems haven't really put A-listers up against him.  He's probably safe for this year, but he could be at risk in 2014 if he doesn't get to be President of the Senate.
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« Reply #23 on: August 18, 2012, 10:52:30 am »
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Ryan has stomped his opponents 6 times now, by large margins. When he won that district it had almost none of Waukesha county.

The Dems haven't really put A-listers up against him.  He's probably safe for this year, but he could be at risk in 2014 if he doesn't get to be President of the Senate.
Can't see that happening.  VERY small possibility.  Dems have no message/ candidate anywhere near Ryan('s). 
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