WI-1: If Ryan is elected VP....?

[Mr.Phips]

While Ryan certainly won't win by the margins he's won in the past since he's now in the national spotlight, I would assume he would be safe even if Obama carries WI-1, no?

He might.  Ryan is now seen as a "national" leader.  A lot of people, including Obama fans, want a national leader to cater to their local interests.

Being a national leader sure didnt help Tom Foley or Tom Daschle.


Nevertheless, Ryan is probably safe in all but a very bad GOP midterm where Democrats put up a decent challenger. 

In a special election early in a Romney administration, Democrats would have a good shot at picking the seat up.  It was carried by Russ Feingold by two points in 2004.

[Mr.Phips]

Being a national leader sure didnt help Tom Foley or Tom Daschle.

Tom Foley and Tom Daschle were both running in very Republican electorates where being a national partisan figure of the wrong party was a huge negative. Ryan is running in a net Republican electorate in WI-1. There's really not much of a comparison.

This should be a very competitive seat in a special election, though. They're just really weird beasts.

Foley's district actually wasnt that Republican back in the early 90's.  Clinton carried it in 1992 and Dukakis came within a whisker of taking the district in 1988.